I haven't done of these since August 1, since the Olympics and conventions sort of froze everything in place. We should be seeing the numbers shift around quite a bit over the next couple of weeks as the convention bounces fade and whatever is left over begins to assert itself. So while many of you panic over the national polling numbers, let's take a look at the numbers that actually matter -- the state-by-state polling.
Five weeks ago, it was Obama 336, McCain 202. I give the states to whoever leads in the Pollster.com polling aggregates. For this edition, it's Obama 309, McCain 229. The difference from five weeks ago is Florida, which flipped from the narrowest Obama lead to the narrowest McCain lead (McCain 46.2, Obama 44.1).
Now let's look at the battleground state map. In previous editions, I used to define "battleground" as states within single digits. As we near Election Day, I'm tightening that definition, to those states that are within six points. Why six? Because if we tightened the screen to five, that would leave out Michigan, and I think we can all agree that Michigan is certainly tight. Going to six doesn't leave out any obvious hot battleground states. And going to seven would pull in states like Texas, which while tighter than history would suggest, aren't being overtly contested (at least not for now). And yes, seven also keeps out New Mexico and Pennsylvania, which McCain is heavily contesting, but so far, McCain's numbers in those states suck (which can obviously change in the coming weeks). So with that new screen, we get this:
That is Obama 243, McCain 132. Looks pretty good, huh? Unfortunately for Obama, other than New Hampshire and Michigan, those are all Red states, with their past history of voting Republican. So we're not out of the woods just yet. This is a real battle. But make no mistake about it, I'd rather be in Obama's shoes than McCain's. Compare to 2004, with yellow representing the states either candidate won by 6 or less points:
Without those tight states, the tally was Bush 213, Kerry 165. Kerry had a much tougher map getting to 270 than Obama does this time around.
3 comments:
Looking at them there yella states, the only ones that seem possible (in addition to Michigan and New Hampshire which are absolute must-haves) are ohio, colorado and virginia.
For no defensible reason, I think Colorado is his best bet. Though it sure seems like Virginia is trending blue. ohio, well, I hate Ohio after 2004....but they seem to be "bluer" too.
But are they blue enough? Not sure.
my money is on virginia, especially if we can sway bridget's mom.
Could be an uphill battle with my mom - so far she likes Palin, though she is still firmly in the "undecided" category. How are we related?
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