fivethirtyeight.com has Obama at 90.9% for the second straight day, which is deliciously higher than the 90% McCain gets for winning his home state.
Intrade, which famously predicted all 50 states
correctly in 2004, has Obama at
- 78.8 for Colorado,
- 65 for Florida,
- 42 for Indiana,
- 92 for Michigan,
- 84 for Minnesota,
- 47.6 for Missouri,
- 72.9 for Nevada,
- 78.7 for New Hampshire,
- 81.7 for New Mexico,
- 56 for North Carolina,
- 71 for Ohio,
- 84 for Pennsylvania,
- 68 for Virginia,
- 42 for West Virginia, and
- 87 for Wisconsin.
I think I got all the swing states. You have to like these odds! Bettors really think that West Virginia is in play?!?! Incidentally, Intrade's state betting odds seem much
more reasonable (and consistent with Nate's predictions) than Intrade's Presidential betting odds, which are currently 77.1 Obama.
3 comments:
the right side? don't you mean the left side?
so, intrade has Obama with Kerry states+CO+NM+NV+VA+OH=WEEEEEEEE!!!!
I don't know what to do with such a positive outlook. It's almost scary.
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