Let me start with the disclaimer that I'm very sleep deprived from my weekend away, and hence prone to grumpiness. That said, all the coverage I'm reading today has me pretty glum. McCain leading in the polls. Really? McCain polling better than Obama on education, energy, and health care(!). Really? McCain doesn't even have an education policy! And, pretty much everyone agrees that Charlie Gibson will just lob Palin softballs when he interviews her.
Meanwhile, the LA Times has a story about Palin's leadership style that mentions that she won't tolerate dissent and shows little interest in the actual details of governing. Money quote: "[Palin] underestimated exponentially how much more complex state government is than the city of Wasilla." People have to start noticing this stuff, right?
A couple things are giving me a little hope, though. First, Obama's campaign openly called the McCain-Palin claim that she opposed the Bridge to Nowhere a lie. They need to call it like it is, and it appears that while some reporters have been dancing around the word "lie" ("Convenient Untruth"? Seriously?), by openly calling the claims lies, they seem to be getting that message across. Second, the Enquirer is reporting that Palin had an affair. That just makes me happy because I'm feeling mean-spirited.
6 comments:
somebody stop dave from reading the polls! they are never accurate. remember '04? only numbers i listen to anymore are the ones george send around (intrade?). they seem the most reliable.
but yeah, palin definitely has the starpower to shake up the election. i read that several thousand people cancelled their us magazine subscriptions to protest its cover story on her (pretty nasty stuff). she has some ineffable quality that the repub base is drawn to. hopefully the swing voters aren't so easily swayed. besides, she has 2 months to eff up, that's a long long time for the shine on her star to rub off.
Mean-spiritedness aside, I do wish that all the soap opera stuff about Palin would go away so people could focus on her checkered executive record. I find it incredibly frustrating that so many people are openly ignoring her record and stances in favor of her overall demeanor and past. They think she could relate to them, but considering how extreme her politics are, that's unlikely.
As an aside, I also wanted to mention that I thought you had a great point, Ilsa, about the assumption that "small town values" are better than "big city values." WTF? Why does this country so celebrate provincialism? Why do we consider education a huge national priority but have a dim view of academics? Again, I say, "Aargh!"
Everybody (DAVE) just calm down. No real surprise here, we're seeing a convention bounce. We still have 8 weeks and 4 debates to go.
grumble grumble....just wrote a 300 word post about polling and it got lost in The Google Tubes.
Basically thanks to George's guy Nate at fivethirtyeight.com I've come to believe that all that matters is Obama needs to win one of Ohio, Virginia or Colorado. "all" being the operative word. He has enough electoral votes, seemingly, to get to 263 of the 270 needed, and one of those states would put him over the top. Currently Silver's algorithm has him doing very well in those three states. (See the left side of the page on www.fivethirtyeight.com)
Sure, go with a positive post and leave me as the group Eeyore. Thanks alot, John.
Oh, don't worry Dave. With the national tracking polls trending for the Old Dude, then the state polls will probably reflect that. So, I'm guessing at this time next week, McCain will project to like 500 electoral votes -- he'll somehow get votes in Guam, P.R., DC, and parts of Ukraine (which will coincide with the Cubs slide into the abyss, naturally).
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