Ever the intrepid reporter, I've talked with a whopping 2 Republicans and 1 Republican-leaning independent here in Florida. While you may doubt the validity of my sample size, I think the results are pretty interesting. They are all undecided and unexcited. One of them told me that she has proudly voted in every election since she turned 18 (she's probably in her sixties) but will most likely skip the GOP primary this time around because she can't bring herself to vote for any of the contenders.
This actually jives with what one of my other co-workers said about her ultra-conservative husband in Texas. He went into election season psyched about supporting someone to get Obama out of office but has pretty much checked out of the nomination process because of the uninspiring candidates.
But, these folks still claim to really want Obama out of office. If I had to bet, I'd assume they will all vote in November. The difference could be in their engagement before then. Hopefully, that will allow Barack to dominate the narrative and sway the undecideds.
4 comments:
good work, jimmy olsen. i wonder if this apathy will carry over to the election. i guess for those who truly despise obama, anyone is better than him. but i suspect there is still a good sized contingent not motivated by hate and hostility. hopefully they will stay home and dems will get out the vote. if nothing else, this is a good situation to find ourselves in.
Hate and hostility certainly motivated the troops in 2010, but isn't turnout generally lower and weighted towards the activist base in a non-prez election year? Plus, I think (or maybe just really, really, hope) that people are tired of the vitriol. It might still motivate that core base, but I don't think it'll lead to the kind of turn out needed in a prez election.
I think you're right about the appetite among the moderately conservative to independent voters' appetite for the kind of vitriol that the Repugs are pushing. If anything, I think the vitriol balance leans in our favor with people angry about income inequality and such. If Mitt manages to land the nomination, which I still think he will (he's up again in the FL polling), that will have to be the dominant Dem campaign point.
Also, I think B, in presidential election year you get more than just leisure-class-angry-white guys voting. You know, the rest of America. Which is never good for the GOP.
Is there any serious discussion of a 3rd party/tea party candidate if Mitt wins? I don't think Newt would go there, but would Santorum (Bachmann would, but I don't even think Tea Partiers are that nuts).
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