Saturday Morning Update

Since Ilsa and Bridget are again making a lie out of our tagline and actually doing something to help Barack today, I'm pitching in.

The polls seem to have steadied--Gallup's three polls (registered, likely--expanded, and likely--traditional) have Obama up 11, 9, and 8 points respectively. The one outlier is a weird one-day Zogby poll from yesterday that actually has McCain up 1 point. But, Nate has already ridden to the rescue and told us why we don't need to pay attention to it. Oh, and you'll notice that he has McCain's chances of winning down to 2.8%. Right where he wants 'em!

While Eagleburger tried to recant his statements that Palin's not ready to be veep, Nevada Senator John Ensign didn't get the memo and joined the ranks of Repugs who've openly stated that she's not qualified.

Palin supported the arguments that she's not qualified yet again yesterday by showing that she doesn't understand the First Amendment. She stated that the press is endangering the First Amendment by calling her out on her lies.

While things are looking good, there is still a lot of concern about voter suppression. Luckily, so far, the Repug efforts have mostly stalled--including here in Colorado from where I'm posting. TPM has a good summary of the voter suppression efforts.

And, when voter suppression doesn't work, the federal government did show that it's willing to look to other dirty arenas to help the GOP. Today's entry: federal government law enforcement officials leaked to the AP that Obama's Kenyan aunt, with whom he has no relationship, has been in the U.S. illegally since 2004. The article asks the question, but can't answer if either the McCain campaign or the Bush White House were involved.

Oh, great. Now we have to worry about deflation.

Finally, Chicago Public Radio has a lot of great stuff up about Studs Terkel.

McCain Aide pushed "Barack" mutilation hoax and more fun stuff for the Friday Update

White support for Obama at record high. Obama has the support of 44% of whites, the largest percentage for a democrat since Jimmy Carter.

According to TPM, McCain campaign spread hoax of volunteer attack and embellished facts.
"John McCain's Pennsylvania communications director told reporters in the state an incendiary version of the hoax story about the attack on a McCain volunteer well before the facts of the case were known or established -- and even told reporters outright that the "B" carved into the victim's cheek stood for "Barack," according to multiple sources familiar with the discussions."

James Carville on Joe the Plumber: The reason Republicans are happy about Joe the Plumber is they're glad they got somebody hanging around a toilet other than Larry Craig.

This should make the voter protection work I signed up for really interesting:
"A Republican county election clerk in in Indiana thought it would be a good joke to give out copies of a blog post calling Obama a "young, black Adolf Hitler." The Republican Chair from the county said that the incident "taints" the clerk's "ability to appear unbiased."

Yet More Blowback from McCain Attack

Huffington Post reports today that the McCain campaign has directed $175,000 to a GOP operative accused of massive voter registration fraud. Interestingly, while ACORN complied with the law by turning in all of their forms--even the fraudulent ones--this group pitched Democratic registrations.

Washington Monthly has my favorite take on this. They note that McCain has launched several attacks, only to have it later revealed that they apply to him as well. It's worth running down the list:

1. Barack's inexperienced...now, meet Sarah Palin
2. Barack's a celebrity...but pay no attention to my fame and Hollywood fundraisers
3. Barack's an elitist...how many houses do I own again?
4. Barack has scandalous associations with Fannie and Freddie...Rick Davis made how much lobbying for Fannie Mae?
5. Barack voted against funding the troops...of course, I did too, but I had a really good reason
6. Barack hangs out with terrorists...I'm proud of my association with G. Gordon Libby
7. Barack's fundraising is fishy...wait, we sent a letter to a Russian ambassador?
8. (Still to come) Barack's former pastor hates America...please don't show clips of me going on my hands and knees to Reverend Hagee

This doesn't even cover his major talking points which have also been undermined (e.g., I'll stop abuses of power...like those of Alaska's governor). But, the really key point is that McCain has been all over the place looking for something to stick. Nothing has. Meanwhile, Barack has been consistent with his message for 20 months and is reaping the benefits.

Afternoon Round Up

Much more alarming ugliness today: Repugs are protesting against voting in NC; McCain is leaning towards bring up Rev. Wright; and a Obama canvasser was allegedly assaulted in Racine County Wisconsin.

Also, there is irony: on the day that the McCain campaign alleged that Obama must have broken laws to raise $150 million in September, it was revealed that they sent a solicitation for donations to Russian ambassador to the UN. Sure, it was probably a mistake, but soliciting from foreigners is illegal.

But, my favorite thing from today was this analysis of how awesome the Obama approach has been. In a nutshell, they have a message and an approach they've stuck with throughout, while McCain's flailing like an idiot. Good stuff.

Couple Things

First, from TPM, Dems are leading Repugs in early voting in IA, OH, and NC, so far.

Second, in an ABC/WaPo poll, 60% of respondents said that the Ayers issue is not a legitimate factor.

Finally, my beloved Red Sox lost game 7 to the admittedly exciting Rays last night. But, that means I can focus even more attention on the campaign.

Morning Roundup--Put on your reading glasses!

One of Sassy's heroes, Paul Krugman, just won the Nobel Prize for Economics!

Big media is afraid of Obama and is spinning the numbers to prove it.

WaPo has a new poll out with lots of good stuff in there for Obama as he continues to steadily improve his numbers. There was also this tidbit, kind of amazing how big the spread can be in the polling but then it tightens up so much on race day:

"While there are few signs of progress for McCain in the poll, recent history suggests that mid-October leads are vulnerable, although turning around a late double-digit deficit would be unprecedented in the modern era. At this stage in 1992, Bill Clinton held a 14-point advantage over incumbent George H.W. Bush in Post-ABC polling, and it was as high as 19 points before the election, which he won by six points. In mid-October 1976, Jimmy Carter had leads as big as 13 points in Gallup polling; Carter defeated incumbent Gerald Ford by two points. "

An excerpt from McCain's new stump speech for the closing weeks of the campaign ("We've got them just where we want them"? Really?):

"Let me give you the state of the race today. We have 22 days to go. We’re 6 points down. The national media has written us off. Senator Obama is measuring the drapes, and planning with Speaker Pelosi and Senator Reid to raise taxes, increase spending, take away your right to vote by secret ballot in labor elections, and concede defeat in Iraq. But they forgot to let you decide. My friends, we’ve got them just where we want them.

"What America needs in this hour is a fighter; someone who puts all his cards on the table and trusts the judgment of the American people. I come from a long line of McCains who believed that to love America is to fight for her. I have fought for you most of my life. There are other ways to love this country, but I’ve never been the kind to do it from the sidelines."

Ah, but Nate has a really good analysis of what he thinks McCain will try to do to turn this whole thing around. This week should be really interesting/scary. I'm pasting the entire piece here:

Is Drudge Priming a McCain "Reboot" Narrative?

Something is a little bit funny when Matt Drudge is treating 1-2 point gains for McCain in the Rasmussen and Zogby tracking polls as "BREAKING" news. Naturally, Drudge ignores other results like the just-released ABC/WaPo poll that show Obama continuing to gain ground.

Drudge has a nose for news, and he knows that a one-point gain in a tracking poll is not news -- unless someone desperately wants it to be.

So here's what I think is going on.



The McCain campaign is planning on a major "reboot" of its campaign in some point in advance of Wednesday night's debate. This will take on something of the form that Bill Kristol advocates in his must-read Monday AM piece in the Times, including some combination of (i) pledging to run a positive campaign; (ii) firing/demoting Steve Schmidt and or/Rick Davis; (iii) apologizing for his campaign's tone. In fact, Kristol's column may be something of a trial balloon for this strategy.

What the McCain campaign really, really doesn't want is for this move to be portrayed as desperate stunt. McCain has already developed a reputation for being a bit erratic under pressure -- the ABC/Post poll now shows that a 48-45 plurality of voters trust Obama to handle an "unexpected major crisis" -- and Bill Burton and Robert Gibbs must be foaming at the mouth waiting to spin something like this.

The only way for McCain to do that is for him to convince the media that he already had the momentum. The campaign will probably try and claim the moral highground, perhaps contrasting McCain's repudiation of the woman who called Obama an "Arab" on Friday against John Lewis's comments from Saturday. They will suggest that McCain found his voice, and made the "maverick" move of telling off the Beltway Republicans who were urging him to go for blood. They will suggest that the reboot is a continuation of this strategy, and that -- as the Zogby poll so obviously attests to! -- voters were already responding favorably to McCain's new tone.

It won't be an easy spin war for them to win. But they'd seem to have little left to lose, and if the media is reminded of the "old" McCain, they may tend to give his narrative the benefit of the doubt.

Game Changer?: McCain is planning to visit David Letterman on Thursday.

Factoid for the Day:
In every election since the Nixon presidency, Americans have chosen the candidate they feel is more likable. After the second presidential debate, an Oct. 7 CNN poll found that viewers found Obama more likable, 65 percent to 28 percent.

McCain's New Bailout Plan...for Banks

Economist Brad DeLong provided a deeper reading of the true impact of McCain's new mortgage buyout plan. In summary, because McCain's plan calls for buying distressed mortgages at full face value would end up being a massive bailout for bankers who made the bad loans.

McCain Stunt Watch: Wedding Bells for Bristol?

The Times UK writes that there may be a push for Bristol and Levi to get hitched before November 4. According to the report, the McCain camp will make it a media event and hopes that it would create a positive burst for Palin.

Is this a real possibility? Who knows? We haven't heard any rumors stateside, and I can't imagine that a British reporter has more access to the campaign than an American one. But, you know they would do it.