Morning Roundup

Nate says the election now turns on five states. And all scenarios look good for Obama.

This is beginning to look like a five-state election. Those states are Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Nevada. Essentially all relevant electoral scenarios involve some combination of these five states...

The victory conditions for Obama involving these five states proceed something as follows:

1. Win Pennsylvania and ANY ONE of Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, or Nevada*

2. Win Ohio and EITHER Colorado OR Virginia.

3. Win Colorado AND Virginia AND Nevada.

(* Nevada produces a 269-269 tie, which would probably be resolved for Obama in the House of Represenatives.)

Now, suppose you think that Colorado is already in the bag for Obama because of his large edge in early voting there. We can then simplify the victory conditions as follows:

1. Win Pennsylvania

2. Win Ohio

3. Win Virginia AND Nevada

News on Barack's cabinet and WH staff. I love this kind of speculation. Bridg--Neera Tanden is back from Clinton's DPC.

More early voting stats:
Hotline: The number of respondents who have already voted in WH '08 has doubled over the last week. Nearly a quarter, 24%, have now early/absentee voted, compared to 12% a week ago. Among these voters, Obama today leads 52-47%.
Gallup: These early voters are more likely to say they have voted for Barack Obama than for John McCain, by a 55% to 40% margin. Among those who plan to vote on Election Day, the spread is much closer -- only a 48% to 45% Obama advantage.

And some encouraging news on Prop 8 in California:
The SUSA poll on Proposition 8 on October 6 found the proposition winning by 47 to 42 percent, with 10 percent undecided. Today's SUSA poll shows the proposition losing by 50 to 47 percent, with 3 percent undecided. Still too close to call, but the momentum seems to have shifted against the proposition and in favor of keeping marriage legal for gay couples in California. Keep going, guys.

Republicans have been slinging mud all weekend, a true sign of how desperate they are.

Finally, Bridg and I had a great time in Indianapolis yesterday. Obama supporters really showed us the love (including multiple "Bless you's" for the work we were doing. Made a Chicago girl feel good. I'd say I talked to mostly middle class African Americans--many of whom had voted early but some who really wanted to be there on Tuesday, sensing that something historic was going to happen. The smiles I was greeted with when I told them who I was campaigning for was all I needed after getting up very early on a Saturday and driving down there--with a stop at McDonalds in between. Oh yes I did, my friends.

Obama recruiting volunteers in ARIZONA and other good news

Holy crap! The Obama campaign has decided to engage in Arizona. OMG, my friends!

More good news about the early vote counts in swing states. NC keep polls open later to keep pace with demand. More specifics on early voting here.

Nate maps out a path for McCain to pull out a win. I would have posted this earlier in the week, but Sassy has been busy getting herself a real job.

Those annoying, ambivalent, news-hungry undecideds are unlikely to break decisively for one candidate at this late date (ps this is good news for Obama).

NH McCain leadership bails ship and endorses Obama. Live Free or Die!

Morning Roundup a little late--Sassy's been busy!

Nate's analysis of yesterday's polls. Money quote is the last sentence.
"If the balance of today's national polls contain better news for McCain, the balance of the state polls show Obama continuing to perform very well in several swing states. Obama now has 15-point lead in New Hampshire according to the Boston Globe / UNH poll, which had generally contained good news for McCain earlier in this cycle. PPP puts Obama up by 9 in Virginia, while two new polls also show him with significant leads in Iowa.
Counteracting the Obama trend sightly are new polls in Wisconsin and Missouri, which show somewhat better numbers for McCain than other recent polls of those states. However, that is not enough to prevent McCain's win percentage from drifting downward to 3.3 percent."

More comforting polling analysis from Rasmussen:

Today is the 31st straight day that Obama’s voter support has stayed between 50% and 52%. During that period, the number voting for McCain has stayed in the 44% to 46% range every day and the gap between the candidates has ranged from four to eight percentage points.

However, while the overall levels of support have remained stable, voters have become more certain of their intent. Today, the percentage who say they could still change their mind is down to single digits. Forty-eight percent (48%) are now certain they will vote for Obama while 39% say the same about McCain. One month ago, while Obama enjoyed a five-point lead overall, just 41% of voters were certain they would vote for him. At that time, 39% said the same about McCain (see other recent demographic highlights and trends).

Meanwhile, an Arizona poll for the Democratic strategy firm Project New West shows John McCain ahead by just 4 points there, and a couple of other polls showing a close race in McCain's home state are apparently on the way. In terms of our model, the principal effect of the Arizona polls is really not on the Grand Canyon State itself, where our model remains skeptical of an Obama upset, but rather in terms of its neighbor New Mexico, where our it is now (even) more optimistic about Obama's chances.



Nate also debunks the premise behind an article on Salon about the Bradley effect in the 2006 elections. Basically, the writer (a Repug, sooprize sooprize) cherry-picked the polls he used to make his point that several black candidates lost by larger margins than predicted.

Voter turnout in one county in Florida spurs talk of an upset Obama win.

An interesting article by the NY bureau chief for WaPo about how the rise of Obama is still only an American story.

Obama to give his "closing" speech today in Ohio which will include themes of hope, unity etc. McCain to continue talking trash and generally bitching and moaning.

GOP Campaign Worker Admits to Making Up Attack Story

You've probably already seen this, but the McCain campaign worker who claimed to have been assaulted by an Obama-supporter mugger admitted to making the story up. Bizarrely, I don't see any sirens up on Drudge about this recent development. In the end, though, this story is just sad.

Morning Roundup

From Obama's speech in VA yesterday:
"If you'll stand with me, then I know that we can win Virginia and we can win this election and we can finally bring the change we need to Washington," Obama told the estimated crowd of 35,000. "I feel like we got a righteous wind at our backs here."

A new TIME Magazine poll shows Obama continuing to hold the lead in Nevada, OH, VA, and NC. He gained the most ground in NC which shows him ahead by 4 points.

Latest poll results from Nate. Says nothing much has changed, Obama only off his peak numbers from a few weeks ago by about a half a point. Time is running out for McCain to close gaps in many key states.

Chuck Todd wonders what the final two weeks of the McCain campaign will bring since they've got nothing to lose. Commentary on the McCain-Palin interview on NBC.

Larry David can't handle the suspense.
"The one concession I've made to maintain some form of sanity is that I've taken to censoring my news, just like the old Soviet Union. The citizenry (me) only gets to read and listen to what I deem appropriate for its health and well-being. Sure, there are times when the system breaks down. Michele Bachmann got through my radar this week, right before bedtime. That's not supposed to happen. That was a lapse in security, and I've had to make some adjustments."

Colin Powell might endorse Obama

You'll have to watch Meet the Press on Sunday to find out for sure. But the Obama campaign is being coy and most political bloggers say it's a good bet.

Also, Obama continues to caution us to play it safe. At a rally yesterday (or maybe today):

"Don't underestimate the capacity of Democrats to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory," he said, only half in jest. "Don't underestimate our ability to screw it up."

He added: "I want everybody running scared. Over the next 18 days, other than your family and your job, I want you to make a decision that there is nothing more important than bringing about this change that we need."

Nate Silver wrote about this (and Sassy covered it) weeks ago but a trader on Intrade gets formally exposed for making purchases to drive up the price of McCain's stock (or at least the predication that he'll win. or something like that.)

GOP Voter Suppression effort loses big in Ohio.

WASHINGTON - The Supreme Court sided Friday with Ohio's top elections official in a dispute with the state Republican Party over voter registrations.

The justices overruled a federal appeals court that had ordered Ohio's top elections official to do more to help counties verify voter eligibility.

Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, a Democrat, faced a deadline of Friday to set up a system to provide local officials with names of newly registered voters whose driver's license numbers or Social Security numbers on voter registration forms don't match records in other government databases.

'

Morning Roundup-Stay Calm

The polls are tightening but Nate assures us that Obama still has about an 8 point lead and that he should expect a post-debate bump in a few days. Gallup is only showing a 2 point lead, a poll of polls from CNN shows an overall 6 point lead (but with the main message being Obama drops in the polls. 2 points!). Regardless, the electoral map is still solidly weighted towards Obama. Plus Politico has a poll showing Obama way ahead in key counties in swing states. Stay cool, my friends.

Luckily for McCain's campaign continues to be completely mismanaged. He's still spending money in Iowa for pete's sake. Stepping up his hate campaign, McCain unleashes a series of robocalls rehashing all the old lies about Ayers and Obama killing babies--I really think this is going to continue to turn people off. Plus he may be violating some state laws. Sweet! (If you want to listen to the calls, go here.

Oh and there's also so desperate they're harrassing voters! Where my people live in Charlotte!

Posted on Sullivan's blog

"I live in Charlotte NC, where today is the first day of early voting. I drove by two polling places before 8 this morning and they were both completely mobbed. My husband has driven to two others in his attempt to vote today, and the scene has been so ridiculous that he has given up and will try again next week. At two of the spots where he tried to vote, he witnessed and was approached by two exceedingly aggressive McCain/Palin volunteers who were pulling people out of line, handing out brochures, and telling them "You really need to think carefully about your vote. If you plan to vote Obama, we would ask that you read this material and reconsider your vote."

Kos picked up this quote from a really long (10 pages!) article in the NYT a few days ago. It's amazing how Barack can go after Fox News without letting the mud splatter on himself. It's all kind of matter-of-fact but with a dash of real concern thrown in. It blows my mind when I dare think about the greatness that could lie in an Obama presidency:

"I am convinced that if there were no Fox News, I might be two or three points higher in the polls," Obama told me. "If I were watching Fox News, I wouldn’t vote for me, right? Because the way I’m portrayed 24/7 is as a freak! I am the latte-sipping, New York Times-reading, Volvo-driving, no-gun-owning, effete, politically correct, arrogant liberal. Who wants somebody like that?

"I guess the point I’m making," he went on, "is that there is an entire industry now, an entire apparatus, designed to perpetuate this cultural schism, and it’s powerful. People want to know that you’re fighting for them, that you get them. And I actually think I do. But you know, if people are just seeing me in sound bites, they’re not going to discover that. That’s why I say that some of that may have to happen after the election, when they get to know you."

This is no surprise but it still made my heart pound louder in my chest. WaPo endorses Obama for President.:

"But Mr. Obama's temperament is unlike anything we've seen on the national stage in many years. He is deliberate but not indecisive; eloquent but a master of substance and detail; preternaturally confident but eager to hear opposing points of view. He has inspired millions of voters of diverse ages and races, no small thing in our often divided and cynical country. We think he is the right man for a perilous moment. "

Morning Roundup--Put on your reading glasses!

One of Sassy's heroes, Paul Krugman, just won the Nobel Prize for Economics!

Big media is afraid of Obama and is spinning the numbers to prove it.

WaPo has a new poll out with lots of good stuff in there for Obama as he continues to steadily improve his numbers. There was also this tidbit, kind of amazing how big the spread can be in the polling but then it tightens up so much on race day:

"While there are few signs of progress for McCain in the poll, recent history suggests that mid-October leads are vulnerable, although turning around a late double-digit deficit would be unprecedented in the modern era. At this stage in 1992, Bill Clinton held a 14-point advantage over incumbent George H.W. Bush in Post-ABC polling, and it was as high as 19 points before the election, which he won by six points. In mid-October 1976, Jimmy Carter had leads as big as 13 points in Gallup polling; Carter defeated incumbent Gerald Ford by two points. "

An excerpt from McCain's new stump speech for the closing weeks of the campaign ("We've got them just where we want them"? Really?):

"Let me give you the state of the race today. We have 22 days to go. We’re 6 points down. The national media has written us off. Senator Obama is measuring the drapes, and planning with Speaker Pelosi and Senator Reid to raise taxes, increase spending, take away your right to vote by secret ballot in labor elections, and concede defeat in Iraq. But they forgot to let you decide. My friends, we’ve got them just where we want them.

"What America needs in this hour is a fighter; someone who puts all his cards on the table and trusts the judgment of the American people. I come from a long line of McCains who believed that to love America is to fight for her. I have fought for you most of my life. There are other ways to love this country, but I’ve never been the kind to do it from the sidelines."

Ah, but Nate has a really good analysis of what he thinks McCain will try to do to turn this whole thing around. This week should be really interesting/scary. I'm pasting the entire piece here:

Is Drudge Priming a McCain "Reboot" Narrative?

Something is a little bit funny when Matt Drudge is treating 1-2 point gains for McCain in the Rasmussen and Zogby tracking polls as "BREAKING" news. Naturally, Drudge ignores other results like the just-released ABC/WaPo poll that show Obama continuing to gain ground.

Drudge has a nose for news, and he knows that a one-point gain in a tracking poll is not news -- unless someone desperately wants it to be.

So here's what I think is going on.



The McCain campaign is planning on a major "reboot" of its campaign in some point in advance of Wednesday night's debate. This will take on something of the form that Bill Kristol advocates in his must-read Monday AM piece in the Times, including some combination of (i) pledging to run a positive campaign; (ii) firing/demoting Steve Schmidt and or/Rick Davis; (iii) apologizing for his campaign's tone. In fact, Kristol's column may be something of a trial balloon for this strategy.

What the McCain campaign really, really doesn't want is for this move to be portrayed as desperate stunt. McCain has already developed a reputation for being a bit erratic under pressure -- the ABC/Post poll now shows that a 48-45 plurality of voters trust Obama to handle an "unexpected major crisis" -- and Bill Burton and Robert Gibbs must be foaming at the mouth waiting to spin something like this.

The only way for McCain to do that is for him to convince the media that he already had the momentum. The campaign will probably try and claim the moral highground, perhaps contrasting McCain's repudiation of the woman who called Obama an "Arab" on Friday against John Lewis's comments from Saturday. They will suggest that McCain found his voice, and made the "maverick" move of telling off the Beltway Republicans who were urging him to go for blood. They will suggest that the reboot is a continuation of this strategy, and that -- as the Zogby poll so obviously attests to! -- voters were already responding favorably to McCain's new tone.

It won't be an easy spin war for them to win. But they'd seem to have little left to lose, and if the media is reminded of the "old" McCain, they may tend to give his narrative the benefit of the doubt.

Game Changer?: McCain is planning to visit David Letterman on Thursday.

Factoid for the Day:
In every election since the Nixon presidency, Americans have chosen the candidate they feel is more likable. After the second presidential debate, an Oct. 7 CNN poll found that viewers found Obama more likable, 65 percent to 28 percent.

Weekend Update

Palin abused her power (sooprize, sooprize) in trooper-gate, but consequences are unclear.

McCain is trying to control his unruly crowds (or is he?), but then a surrogate goes after Michelle for a very tenuous connection to Bill Ayers wife. The former is the best article I've seen today on McCain's attempts to deal with the angry crowds he and Palin have been inciting.

Republicans need a new tactic cuz insulting the people you want to vote for you ain't working.

More good news for Obama:

From Newsweek:

Obama appears to have broadened his coalition of support and made inroads with groups that have not reliably embraced him over the course of the long presidential campaign. He now leads McCain among both men (54 percent to 40 percent) and women (50 percent to 41 percent). He now wins every age group of voters—including those over 65 years of age, who back him over McCain 49 to 43 percent. Supporters of Hillary Clinton, as many as a fifth of whom had at one point told pollsters they'd support McCain over Obama, now back the Democratic nominee 88 percent to 7 percent.

From Fox:

"Obama has also improved his standing with his party faithful. A month ago, 79 percent of Democrats were backing Obama. Today it is 86 percent. McCain has consistently received the backing of over 80 percent of Republicans and is backed by 83 percent today.

Independents split their vote 34 percent Obama and 32 percent McCain, with 24 percent unsure. That's little changed from two weeks ago when Obama was up by 36 percent to 31 percent and 29 percent undecided.

A 61 percent majority of voters believes Obama is going to win the election - more than three times as many as believe McCain will (18 percent). A month ago it was evenly divided: 41 percent Obama and 40 percent McCain (Sept. 8-9). This summer, voters were more likely to say Obama would win: 51 percent Obama and 27 percent McCain (July 22-23). "

And from loverboy Nate:

"With 25 days to go until the election, Barack Obama is presently at his all-time highs in four of the six national tracking polls (Research 2000, Battleground, Hotline and Zogby) and is just one point off his high in Gallup. He has emerged with clear leads in both Florida and Ohio, where there are several polls out today. He is blowing McCain out in most polls of Pennsylvania and Michigan, and is making states like West Virgina and Georgia competitive."

Are things so bad that the GOP is going to completely bail on McCain? That's what Andrew Sullivan is hearing:

"So I hear (via a prominent member of the sane Republican faction) that the word on the right side of the street is that the Republican National Committee is about to pull the plug on its joint ads with the McCain campaign, and devote its resources instead to trying to save a couple of the senators who are at serious risk of losing their seats. Now this is gossip, albeit of the high class variety; take it with the requisite pinch of salt."

Finally, if you live in Chicago, Sassy recommends a very cool play we saw last night at the Cultural Center (thanks to Bridget!): Produced by The Incurable Theater and written by one of our favorite local authors, Jill Summers, "In the Curious Hold of the Demeter: Count Orlock at Sea" is only around for two more weekends. It's creepy, funny, weird, and dark. Just what Sassy likes.

Morning Roundup

McCain continues to draw mobs of angry people. This can't end anywhere good. As Andrew Sullivan says today:

"To some, a president Obama is simply unimaginable. From a McCain supporter in Wisconsin yesterday:

"We're all wondering why Obama is where he's at. How he got here. Everybody in this room is stunned we're in this position."

There was always going to be a point of revolt and panic for a core group of Americans who believe that Obama simply cannot be president - because he's black or liberal or young or relatively new. This is that point. As the polls suggest a strong victory, the Hannity-Limbaugh-Steyn-O'Reilly base are going into shock and extreme rage. McCain and Palin have decided to stoke this rage, to foment it, to encourage paranoid notions that somehow Obama is a "secret" terrorist or Islamist or foreigner. These are base emotions in both sense of the word.

But they are also very very dangerous. This is a moment of maximal physical danger for the young Democratic nominee. And McCain is playing with fire. If he really wants to put country first, he will attack Obama on his policies - not on these inflammatory, personal, creepy grounds. This is getting close to the atmosphere stoked by the Israeli far right before the assassination of Rabin.

For God's sake, McCain, stop it. For once in this campaign, put your country first."

And wouldn't you know, O'Reilly showed his true colors last night (also from Sullivan):

A pretty staggering exchange on O'Reilly just now. O'Reilly had African-American Temple University professor Marc Lamont Hill on the show. O'Reilly went into Colbert mode at one point, saying that when he thinks about a metaphorical "Joe Six-Pack", he has no race in mind: "The immediate image that comes to my mind is a guy of no color," O'Reilly said. Try that for a second: imagine a man of no color. Then this staggering quote from O'Reilly to a black professor:

"Man, I'm glad I didn't have you in school, boy. I would have gotten a D."

Boy? Did O'Reilly just call a black professor a "boy" on cable television?

Nate thinks Obama hasn't peaked yet. This would be cool if it wasn't starting to be scary.

Repbug poll shows Obama gains:
A new pair of polls from Strategic Vision (R) gives Barack Obama the lead in both Florida and Ohio. In Florida: Obama 52%, McCain 44%, outside of the ±3% margin of error. In Ohio: Obama 48%, McCain 46%, within the ±3% margin of error.


also, don't forget, alaska publishes a report on trooper-gate today. something to look forward to while the dow plummets! (oh, but wait, palin's already been exonerated. by mccain!)

McCain still down in the polls; stock market still tanking

thanks to dave for holding down the fort today. just a few things for your evening viewing pleasure.

mccain brings up ayers at an event, and misrepresents hillary to do it.

barack is buying up 30 mins of tv time in late october. hmm.

mccain/palin's current campaign strategy is not working.

really good info on what to look for in polls (and advice on when, and when not, to be worried). nate recommended. here's the cliff notes:

--8.5% is the maximum victory: First, as I warned on Monday, please keep in mind that an 8,5% national victory is the maximum. In the last sixteen national elections (U.S. House and Presidential), the largest victory was Bill Clinton's 8.51% victory in 1996. The simple fact is that no one wins by double digits anymore.

--even if you accept that it is impossible for Obama's lead to continue rising, don't expect it to remain static, either. Polls are using non-static means (statistical ranges with margins of error) to measure a non-static subject matter (public opinion). So, when there is nowhere to go but down, when the polls inevitably start moving again, it isn't a shock to see them move down.

--Within the last three days, Obama had surpassed or equaled his all-time high in every single tracking poll. With Obama hitting his all-time high in four tracking polls yesterday, one two days ago and one three days ago, for both of the reasons mentioned above, the idea that his standing in these polls was gong anywhere but down is wishful thinking. When dealing with polls that have a track record of several weeks and, in some cases, seven months, it is highly unlikely that a record will be immediately followed with another record.

Morning Roundup--Someone had her Chai tea this morning!

Gallup:
Looked at broadly, Obama's percent of the vote has been within a very narrow range of 48% to 50% over the last ten days, and McCain's has been within an equally narrow range of 42% of 44% over the same time period. These results suggest that aside from normal sampling error, the underlying dynamics of the race have become quite stable, and underscore the degree to which there has been little meaningful change in the race in well over a week.

Almost all the pollsters agree: Biden and Obama won their debates. Stupid pundits.

From today's Hater's file:
Palin inspires audience to kill.
And McCain's fans think Obama is a terrorist. Who's McCain to disagree?

Oh, dear. Even Ted Stevens thinks he's going to jail. No biggie, it's not like he's getting fired on in Baghdad. From a tapped conversation:
From a tapped conversation between Stevens and Veco CEO Bill Allen, the man who hooked Stevens up with all the sexy additions to his apartment that got him investigated by the Feds:

Stevens: "If there's a violation of the elections law then that's a corporate violation."

Allen: "Yeah."

Stevens: "This thing shouldn't get your bind, little buddy."

Allen: "Well it has man, all day."

Stevens: "Well, well you gotta just stand back and say, what's gonna happen when it's all over, you gotta get a mental attitude that these guys can't really hurt us, you know, they're not gonna shoot us, its not Iraq, so what the hell. Worse that's gonna happen to us is we round up a bunch of legal fees and might lose and might have to pay a fine, might have to serve a little time in jail."

Such pretty polls:

• 10/6: Gallup Pres-Tracker: Obama 50%, McCain 42%
• 10/6: Hotline/Diageo Pres-Tracker: Obama 47%, McCain 41%
• 10/6: Rasmussen Pres-Tracker: Obama 52%, McCain 44%
• 10/6: Res. 2000 Pres-Tracker: Obama 52%, McCain 40%

• 10/6: ABC/WaPo OH: Obama 51%, McCain 45%
• 10/6: Rasmussen FL: Obama 52%, McCain 45%
• 10/6: Rasmussen MO: Obama 50%, McCain 47%
• 10/6: Rasmussen OH: McCain 48%, Obama 47%
• 10/6: CNN Pres: Obama 53%, McCain 45%
• 10/6: PPP (D) NC: Obama 50%, McCain 44%

Except for CBS, which sees the race tightening a bit after the Veep debate.

Oh, but WSJ has more independents moving towards Obama.

And then there's Nate, who is practically giddy.
"You can read these numbers as well as I can. Obama leads by 6 in North Carolina? 12 in Virginia? 7 in Florida? 3 in Missouri? Obviously, I am cherrypicking some of the more pro-Obama results here ... but the point is, there are a lot of favorable results these days for Barack Obama.

The larger Obama's margin in the popular vote becomes (and over the course of the past several weeks, he's been gaining a full a point on McCain roughly every three days) the less the relative positioning of the states matters. For John McCain to get back into this race, he is going to need some dramatic events to occur, and we don't know in which types of states such events might have a differential impact; something like an outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East could make a very different electoral footprint than new revelations about Barack Obama and William Ayers.

For that reason, the proper strategy is probably now to play a fairly large map; Obama in particular wants to keep as many doors open as possible if and when something bad happens to his campaign.

For the time being, however, John McCain is facing third and long -- and appears that he's about to get sacked."

Monday Roundup

Pretty quiet weekend on the trail, especially since McCain doesn't work on the weekends. Except for Palin's comments about Obama palling around with terrorists (which the AP calls a vaguely racist comment). Mostly, it's all good as Obama moves beyond the 50 mark in polling and keeps edging higher and higher. Repugs definitely need an October surprise because more of the same (and dirtier of the same) just ain't gonna do the trick.

For all polling data click here.

Here are some of the highlights, from kos:

On successive days in the R2K poll, Obama was up +13 Fri, +13 Sat and +11 Sun (MoE +/- 5.1 for individual days.) There were no new national polls yesterday other than the trackers. Today's polling will be entirely post-VP debate.

Sarah Palin's fav/unfav is now a - 13 (same as Thursday, Oct. 2, the debate day) and John McCain's is - 5. Joe Biden's fav/unfav moved from +18 on 10/02 to +26 today. The Obama lead went from +11 on 10/2 to +12 today, and Obama gained +5 with women and +3 with independents.

There is no evidence that Sarah Palin did all that well in the VP debate in post-debate polls, and there is no evidence Palin helped McCain in this or other tracking polls. Other national polls are in the field and we will undoubtedly hear more.

PS pay no attention to the crashing stock market. serenity now.

GOP worried about Virginia and lots of other stuff

McCain removes ads from DC/N.VA stations and has only visited once since his nomination. Not looking good.

And the big picture is looking really really good. 60 seats in the Senate? It could happen, just ask Liddy Dole and Norm Coleman.

What's going on at the NYT?

They run this article on the front page, but seem to be using polling numbers from mid-summer in some cases, in others--who knows?. Very favorable to Barack but it just doesn't make sense. NC is no longer a battleground state? huh?

Nate and Sean are also befuddled.

Also, Bridg, it appears McC and Obama are battling it out in Maine for split electoral votes. Crazy.

And anyway, if this guy is a Barack supporter, how can we lose? (well, just ask a cubs fan).

Sassy is Sleepy, a little hungover, and still buzzing from way too much chocolate

CNN: Biden wins debate.

CBS: Biden wins debate, among uncommitted voters.

I like this perspective from Nate:
"Palin's largest problem, to my eyes, is that she was tangibly nervous for most of the debate, rushing through talking points and canned jokes alike with unsually little inflection. I doubt that this will impact her favorables much -- in fact, it seems likely that her favroables will improve. But it may contribute to the increasing feelings of dis-ease that some voters have with the McCain campaign, which no longer seems like the manifestly safer choice."

Most polls showed that people's opinion had improved of Palin (but she had nowhere to go but up). That was usually true of Biden as well. In fact, I thought his performance was beautiful--warm, honest, smart, organized. Obama could even take a few lessons from him. If anyone exceeded expectations, it's Biden. I think we not only dodged a bullet here, but we gained some good will from undecideds. Nowback to what really matters--the presidential campaign.

Speaking of, a great article on why McCain can't win.

Just in time for the debate

Buried near the end of today's column from Howard Kurtz, where he is talking about Sarah Palin's disastrous interview with Katie Couric, was this interesting tidbit:

And the worst may be yet to come for Palin; sources say CBS has two more responses on tape that will likely prove embarrassing.

Given the excruciatingly bad answers she gave on Alaska's proximity to Russia giving her foreign policy experience, or her take on the $700 billion bailout, it's hard to believe that there's anything worse...isn't it? But the important question is, what is CBS waiting for? Why haven't they aired the entire tape?

Oh, and...

McCain's got the cream of the crop on his team:

Via USA Today, we hear from Didi Lima, GOP communications (!) director in Clark County, Nevada:

"We don't want (Hispanics) to become the new African-American community," Lima told The Associated Press. "And that's what the Democratic Party is going to do to them, create more programs and give them handouts, food stamps and checks for this and checks for that. We don't want that."

"I'm very much afraid that the Democratic Party is going to do the same thing that they did with the African-American culture and make them all dependent on the government and we don't want that," she said.

Lima "was removed from her post" after the remarks, according to the article, and lost her second position as well.

In August, Lima was named co-chair of McCain's Nevada Hispanic Leadership Team, which aimed to reach out to a crucial voting bloc in a state where polls show McCain in a dead heat with Barack Obama.

both posts from kos

Sassy from Charlotte

Courtesy of Suzy's sister, Amy.

By John Cusack. he uses the word sass! plus he says really cool things like "Palin is a gateway drug to a back-alley brawl Obama can't win."

www.huffingtonpost.com/john-cusack/the-final-distraction-mcc_b_126672.html

Like I was Sayin'...

Virginia is definitely in play.

In what looks to be a shakeup of the Virginia electorate, the recent
Survey USA poll is all Obama.

In an election for President of the United States in Virginia today, 09/15/08, 7 weeks till votes are counted, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 50% to 46%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond, and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one week ago, immediately following the Republican National Convention, Obama is up 3 points; McCain is down 3. The movement solidifies Virginia place as America's 2008 battleground.

Aargh!

Let me start with the disclaimer that I'm very sleep deprived from my weekend away, and hence prone to grumpiness. That said, all the coverage I'm reading today has me pretty glum. McCain leading in the polls. Really? McCain polling better than Obama on education, energy, and health care(!). Really? McCain doesn't even have an education policy! And, pretty much everyone agrees that Charlie Gibson will just lob Palin softballs when he interviews her.

Meanwhile, the LA Times has a story about Palin's leadership style that mentions that she won't tolerate dissent and shows little interest in the actual details of governing. Money quote: "[Palin] underestimated exponentially how much more complex state government is than the city of Wasilla." People have to start noticing this stuff, right?

A couple things are giving me a little hope, though. First, Obama's campaign openly called the McCain-Palin claim that she opposed the Bridge to Nowhere a lie. They need to call it like it is, and it appears that while some reporters have been dancing around the word "lie" ("Convenient Untruth"? Seriously?), by openly calling the claims lies, they seem to be getting that message across. Second, the Enquirer is reporting that Palin had an affair. That just makes me happy because I'm feeling mean-spirited.