Morning Roundup

Nate says the election now turns on five states. And all scenarios look good for Obama.

This is beginning to look like a five-state election. Those states are Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Nevada. Essentially all relevant electoral scenarios involve some combination of these five states...

The victory conditions for Obama involving these five states proceed something as follows:

1. Win Pennsylvania and ANY ONE of Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, or Nevada*

2. Win Ohio and EITHER Colorado OR Virginia.

3. Win Colorado AND Virginia AND Nevada.

(* Nevada produces a 269-269 tie, which would probably be resolved for Obama in the House of Represenatives.)

Now, suppose you think that Colorado is already in the bag for Obama because of his large edge in early voting there. We can then simplify the victory conditions as follows:

1. Win Pennsylvania

2. Win Ohio

3. Win Virginia AND Nevada

News on Barack's cabinet and WH staff. I love this kind of speculation. Bridg--Neera Tanden is back from Clinton's DPC.

More early voting stats:
Hotline: The number of respondents who have already voted in WH '08 has doubled over the last week. Nearly a quarter, 24%, have now early/absentee voted, compared to 12% a week ago. Among these voters, Obama today leads 52-47%.
Gallup: These early voters are more likely to say they have voted for Barack Obama than for John McCain, by a 55% to 40% margin. Among those who plan to vote on Election Day, the spread is much closer -- only a 48% to 45% Obama advantage.

And some encouraging news on Prop 8 in California:
The SUSA poll on Proposition 8 on October 6 found the proposition winning by 47 to 42 percent, with 10 percent undecided. Today's SUSA poll shows the proposition losing by 50 to 47 percent, with 3 percent undecided. Still too close to call, but the momentum seems to have shifted against the proposition and in favor of keeping marriage legal for gay couples in California. Keep going, guys.

Republicans have been slinging mud all weekend, a true sign of how desperate they are.

Finally, Bridg and I had a great time in Indianapolis yesterday. Obama supporters really showed us the love (including multiple "Bless you's" for the work we were doing. Made a Chicago girl feel good. I'd say I talked to mostly middle class African Americans--many of whom had voted early but some who really wanted to be there on Tuesday, sensing that something historic was going to happen. The smiles I was greeted with when I told them who I was campaigning for was all I needed after getting up very early on a Saturday and driving down there--with a stop at McDonalds in between. Oh yes I did, my friends.