On his website, Republican strategist Karl Rove writes:
The final Rove & Co. electoral map of the 2008 election cycle points to a 338-200 Barack Obama electoral vote victory over John McCain tomorrow, the largest electoral margin since 1996.All remaining toss-up states have been allocated to the candidate leading in them, with Florida (27 EV) going to Obama, and Indiana (11 EV), Missouri (11 EV), North Carolina (15 EV), and North Dakota (3 EV) going to McCain.
The two candidates are in a dead heat in Missouri and North Carolina, but they go to McCain because the most recent polls conducted over this past weekend show him narrowly ahead. Florida, too, could end up in McCain's column since he's benefited from recent movement in the state.
FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver agrees that "it looks like a pretty clear Obama win unless there's something really wrong with the polling, which has happened before, let's not forget New Hampshire, but it's more a polling problem than anything McCain can really do at this point to win the election." (Silver also cautions that everyone should ignore the exit polls.)
1 comment:
citing the New Hampshire primary as a reason to be cautious about the presidential polls does seem like a strawman, no? I mean, NH probably had 5 polls over two weeks that really sampled anything. And an electorate in the first-primary is incredibly volatile to begin with. A late move towards one candidate is no surprise at all. And is totally NOT predictive of what can happen in a general election.
National trackers and state-polls for the general election have been held a gazillion times, and by now the electorate is 95% set.
An Obama loss would be only due to massive, unprecedented, unfathomable stealing by the repubs IMO. And I just don't see that happening.
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