State Odds Update

Here's an update of the Intrade odds from October 20. Obama's chances have moved up modestly to substantially in all states except Missouri, New Hampshire, and West Virginia. But check out Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia! And check out the 4 new states in purple. And Obama's current chances of winning it are 89.0.

I put Nate's numbers in there as well, since Sassy doesn't believe anything unless it shows up on 5-3-8. The betting odds on Intrade tend to be less extreme (closer to 50) than Nate's probabilities. This article suggests why. It also includes a really cool graphic -- a time series plot of state and national polls from June to November.

• 19.1 (NEW) (Nate: 2) for Arizona,
• 86.4 (last: 80.3) (Nate: 91) for Colorado,
• 70.1 (last: 68) (Nate: 50) for Florida,
• 27.5 (NEW) (Nate: 7) for Georgia,
• 44 (last: 36) (Nate: 27) for Indiana,
• 94.9 (last: 87) (Nate: 100) for Iowa,
  
• 95 (last: 93.5) (Nate: 100) for Michigan,
  
• 95.5 (last: 91.6) (Nate: 99) for Minnesota,
  
• 49 (last: 74.5) (Nate: 34) for Missouri,
• 28.5 (NEW) (Nate: 6) for Montana,
• 79.7 (last: 76.5) (Nate: 79) for Nevada,
• 83 (last: 89.3) (Nate: 97) for New Hampshire,
  
• 92.1 (last: 87.3) (Nate: 99) for New Mexico,
  
• 61.9 (last: 58.5) (Nate: 57) for North Carolina,
• 25.5 (NEW) (Nate: 19) for North Dakota,
• 80 (last: 68.5) (Nate: 76) for Ohio,
  
• 88 (last: 84) (Nate: 96) for Pennsylvania,
  
• 84.2 (last: 81) (Nate: 92) for Virginia,
• 9 (last: 23) (Nate: 0) for West Virginia, and
  
• 95.4 (last: 92) (Nate: 100) for Wisconsin.