Our favorite numbers geek is moving to NYC. How could Chicago let this happen?
From Nate Silver:
This blog is now on the Eastern Time Zone. I'm moving to New York. My new Congresswoman is Yvette Clarke.I have a great deal of love for Chicago, where I've been for the past 13 years, and the Midwest, where I've been essentially my entire life. In the Internet era, one can cover American politics from almost anywhere: some extremely talented writers do it from places like Brazil and Mexico. Nevertheless, as I've watched the number of 212 and 646 area codes proliferate in my Blackberry (see incredibly dorky chart below), and become intimately familiar with the concession stands at LaGuardia Airport (avoid the Wendy's by Terminal D), I've realized that there's an if-you-can't-beat-'em, join-'em quality to New York City -- and I've decided to join 'em.
Showing posts with label Nate. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nate. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Wednesday Roundup
Clearly, Salon Sassy is reeling a bit from a post-election hangover and Ilsa getting a full-time gig. So, we've missed out on some events over the last couple days. Here's a quick summary of stuff that we haven't already addressed:
Obama recently recorded a talk about how he'll make combating global warming a priority. Hopefully, Bush's 11th hour regulation changes won't do too much damage in the meantime.
Good and bad news out of Texas. The good: Dick Cheney and Alberto Gonzales were indicted yesterday. The bad: nothing will come of it, largely because this came through the efforts of a crackpot DA.
HRC at State news: Bill has volunteered to submit his fundraising to an ethics review. But, it's still not clear that HRC wants the job. Wonkette takes the interesting angle that HRC is after the job because it would help her skate on her still massive campaign debt.
Latest scary economic news: Consumer prices just recorded their steepest one-month drop in 61 years and the average home price in Southern California has plummeted 41% in 18 months. Ugh.
One sector of the international economy is booming, however. Piracy. Somali pirates have earned $30 million in ransom in 2008. Of course, there are some dangers.
Finally, a great post by Nate. He's posted a great interview with a Zogby polling hack. Nate called him out on his methods and the hack got testy. Highly entertaining.
Obama recently recorded a talk about how he'll make combating global warming a priority. Hopefully, Bush's 11th hour regulation changes won't do too much damage in the meantime.
Good and bad news out of Texas. The good: Dick Cheney and Alberto Gonzales were indicted yesterday. The bad: nothing will come of it, largely because this came through the efforts of a crackpot DA.
HRC at State news: Bill has volunteered to submit his fundraising to an ethics review. But, it's still not clear that HRC wants the job. Wonkette takes the interesting angle that HRC is after the job because it would help her skate on her still massive campaign debt.
Latest scary economic news: Consumer prices just recorded their steepest one-month drop in 61 years and the average home price in Southern California has plummeted 41% in 18 months. Ugh.
One sector of the international economy is booming, however. Piracy. Somali pirates have earned $30 million in ransom in 2008. Of course, there are some dangers.
Finally, a great post by Nate. He's posted a great interview with a Zogby polling hack. Nate called him out on his methods and the hack got testy. Highly entertaining.
Monday, November 10, 2008
More Nate
Today's New York Times has a feature on Nate. He continues to be more and more of a legend.
Sunday, November 2, 2008
State Odds Update
Here's an update of the Intrade odds from October 20. Obama's chances have moved up modestly to substantially in all states except Missouri, New Hampshire, and West Virginia. But check out Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia! And check out the 4 new states in purple. And Obama's current chances of winning it are 89.0.
I put Nate's numbers in there as well, since Sassy doesn't believe anything unless it shows up on 5-3-8. The betting odds on Intrade tend to be less extreme (closer to 50) than Nate's probabilities. This article suggests why. It also includes a really cool graphic -- a time series plot of state and national polls from June to November.
I put Nate's numbers in there as well, since Sassy doesn't believe anything unless it shows up on 5-3-8. The betting odds on Intrade tend to be less extreme (closer to 50) than Nate's probabilities. This article suggests why. It also includes a really cool graphic -- a time series plot of state and national polls from June to November.
- 19.1 (NEW) (Nate: 2) for Arizona,
- 86.4 (last: 80.3) (Nate: 91) for Colorado,
- 70.1 (last: 68) (Nate: 50) for Florida,
- 27.5 (NEW) (Nate: 7) for Georgia,
- 44 (last: 36) (Nate: 27) for Indiana,
- 94.9 (last: 87) (Nate: 100) for Iowa,
- 95 (last: 93.5) (Nate: 100) for Michigan,
- 95.5 (last: 91.6) (Nate: 99) for Minnesota,
- 49 (last: 74.5) (Nate: 34) for Missouri,
- 28.5 (NEW) (Nate: 6) for Montana,
- 79.7 (last: 76.5) (Nate: 79) for Nevada,
- 83 (last: 89.3) (Nate: 97) for New Hampshire,
- 92.1 (last: 87.3) (Nate: 99) for New Mexico,
- 61.9 (last: 58.5) (Nate: 57) for North Carolina,
- 25.5 (NEW) (Nate: 19) for North Dakota,
- 80 (last: 68.5) (Nate: 76) for Ohio,
- 88 (last: 84) (Nate: 96) for Pennsylvania,
- 84.2 (last: 81) (Nate: 92) for Virginia,
- 9 (last: 23) (Nate: 0) for West Virginia, and
- 95.4 (last: 92) (Nate: 100) for Wisconsin.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Morning Roundup
Great article about our heroes Nate and Sean.
Race a dead heat in Mo and NC? Other than this post, I'm not gonna cover the polls this morning. Between Dave and I yesterday, we pretty much got you the story. Nothing has really changed this morning--McCain has moved up a bit but not enough to make a difference this close to the election.
McCain is going to appear on SNL tomorrow night. I guess that means I won't be tuning in.
You know how I feel about newspaper endorsements (not relevant) but I still find this revealing:
"At least 47 papers -- the most recent, the Cape Cod Times -- have now switched to Obama from Bush in 2004, with just four flipping to McCain (see separate story on our site). In addition, several top papers that went for Bush in 2004 have now chosen not to endorse this year, the latest being the Indianapolis Star in key swing state Indiana."
I haven't blogged about this yet, but McCain and Palin are still up to their dirty tricks trying to defame the reputation of a Columbia professor by calling him a neo-nazi and tying him to Obama. For the record, this guy does hold some controversial views, but so does Todd Palin. From today's WaPo which totally goes after them for this in an op-ed.
"In the past couple of days, Mr. McCain and his running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin, have likened Mr. Khalidi, the director of a Middle East institute at Columbia University, to neo-Nazis; called him "a PLO spokesman"; and suggested that the Los Angeles Times is hiding something sinister by refusing to release a videotape of a 2003 dinner in honor of Mr. Khalidi at which Mr. Obama spoke. Mr. McCain even threw former Weatherman Bill Ayers into the mix, suggesting that the tape might reveal that Mr. Ayers -- a terrorist-turned-professor who also has been an Obama acquaintance -- was at the dinner.
Our sense is that Mr. Obama is a man of considerable intellectual curiosity who can hear out a smart, if militant, advocate for the Palestinians without compromising his own position. To suggest, as Mr. McCain has, that there is something reprehensible about associating with Mr. Khalidi is itself condemnable -- especially during a campaign in which Arab ancestry has been the subject of insults.
We did ask Mr. Khalidi whether he wanted to respond to the campaign charges against him. He answered, via e-mail, that "I will stick to my policy of letting this idiot wind blow over." That's good advice for anyone still listening to the McCain campaign's increasingly reckless ad hominem attacks. Sadly, that wind is likely to keep blowing for four more days."
Race a dead heat in Mo and NC? Other than this post, I'm not gonna cover the polls this morning. Between Dave and I yesterday, we pretty much got you the story. Nothing has really changed this morning--McCain has moved up a bit but not enough to make a difference this close to the election.
McCain is going to appear on SNL tomorrow night. I guess that means I won't be tuning in.
You know how I feel about newspaper endorsements (not relevant) but I still find this revealing:
"At least 47 papers -- the most recent, the Cape Cod Times -- have now switched to Obama from Bush in 2004, with just four flipping to McCain (see separate story on our site). In addition, several top papers that went for Bush in 2004 have now chosen not to endorse this year, the latest being the Indianapolis Star in key swing state Indiana."
I haven't blogged about this yet, but McCain and Palin are still up to their dirty tricks trying to defame the reputation of a Columbia professor by calling him a neo-nazi and tying him to Obama. For the record, this guy does hold some controversial views, but so does Todd Palin. From today's WaPo which totally goes after them for this in an op-ed.
"In the past couple of days, Mr. McCain and his running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin, have likened Mr. Khalidi, the director of a Middle East institute at Columbia University, to neo-Nazis; called him "a PLO spokesman"; and suggested that the Los Angeles Times is hiding something sinister by refusing to release a videotape of a 2003 dinner in honor of Mr. Khalidi at which Mr. Obama spoke. Mr. McCain even threw former Weatherman Bill Ayers into the mix, suggesting that the tape might reveal that Mr. Ayers -- a terrorist-turned-professor who also has been an Obama acquaintance -- was at the dinner.
Our sense is that Mr. Obama is a man of considerable intellectual curiosity who can hear out a smart, if militant, advocate for the Palestinians without compromising his own position. To suggest, as Mr. McCain has, that there is something reprehensible about associating with Mr. Khalidi is itself condemnable -- especially during a campaign in which Arab ancestry has been the subject of insults.
We did ask Mr. Khalidi whether he wanted to respond to the campaign charges against him. He answered, via e-mail, that "I will stick to my policy of letting this idiot wind blow over." That's good advice for anyone still listening to the McCain campaign's increasingly reckless ad hominem attacks. Sadly, that wind is likely to keep blowing for four more days."
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Morning Roundup from Fake America
All the mavericks in the house, put your hands up! Palin exposed for charging family travel expenses to Alaska. One more distraction the McC campaign doesn't need. Plus Palin is now the campaign's top liability according to a new NBC poll (Bush must be relieved). Oh, and one more thing (it's been a while since I dished on Palin) the RNC has spent $150,000 to clothe Palin and her family. If I was Joe Six-Pack, I would not be pleased. But I guess I couldn't be Joe Six Pack since I don't live in the Real America.
Nate explains McCain's recent inching up in the polls as a dead cat bounce (have I told Nate I love him today?). Obama is now ahead by double digits in many polls (14 points in the Pew poll!); pulling ahead in the final stretch. For all you polling geeks (and I mean you, Dave) Nate posted a primer on the 8 daily polls.
Charlie Cook, Bridget's man in Washington (and who doesn't love a guy with a bowl cut hair piece?), and a very well respected pollster says it's no longer a question of whether Barack will win but by how much. He makes a persuasive argument here including that with early voting so widespread, and leaning heavily towards Barack, it makes a comeback that much harder for McCain since his pool of voters gets smaller every day. And how does all this good news make Democrats feel? Doomed.
Barack may appear on SNL on November 1st which will surely piss. McCain. off. since it's right before the election. Barack was supposed to appear on the first new episode in September but couldn't b/c of Hurricane Ike, probably can't appear this weekend because he's going home to visit his grandma (who Sassy is praying she gets to see the day her grandson becomes president. As John said, COME ON, can't the universe just make this happen?). Speaking of "suspending his campaign" for his sick grandma, word on the street is the McC is fuming that Obama gets to do this and everyone is sympathetic to him (instead of disgusted, like when McC did it last month). 236.com imagines other opportunities for Obama to take McCain's wrongs and show him how to do it right:
Nate explains McCain's recent inching up in the polls as a dead cat bounce (have I told Nate I love him today?). Obama is now ahead by double digits in many polls (14 points in the Pew poll!); pulling ahead in the final stretch. For all you polling geeks (and I mean you, Dave) Nate posted a primer on the 8 daily polls.
Charlie Cook, Bridget's man in Washington (and who doesn't love a guy with a bowl cut hair piece?), and a very well respected pollster says it's no longer a question of whether Barack will win but by how much. He makes a persuasive argument here including that with early voting so widespread, and leaning heavily towards Barack, it makes a comeback that much harder for McCain since his pool of voters gets smaller every day. And how does all this good news make Democrats feel? Doomed.
Barack may appear on SNL on November 1st which will surely piss. McCain. off. since it's right before the election. Barack was supposed to appear on the first new episode in September but couldn't b/c of Hurricane Ike, probably can't appear this weekend because he's going home to visit his grandma (who Sassy is praying she gets to see the day her grandson becomes president. As John said, COME ON, can't the universe just make this happen?). Speaking of "suspending his campaign" for his sick grandma, word on the street is the McC is fuming that Obama gets to do this and everyone is sympathetic to him (instead of disgusted, like when McC did it last month). 236.com imagines other opportunities for Obama to take McCain's wrongs and show him how to do it right:
Obama will be captured and held prisoner in Iraq, except he will escape, free all of his fellow prisoners, and suffer no injuries that make him walk around funny
Someone at his rally will say something incendiary. Obama will stop and say, "That's not right," instantly putting an end to hatred and intolerance in politics
Obama will hear his running mate tell a blatant lie and he will say to his running mate, "That's inaccurate," instantly putting an end to dishonesty in politics
When given the opportunity to have someone with the likability of Rudy Giuliani or Cindy McCain campaign for him, Obama will laugh hysterically
Obama will age gracefully
Monday, October 13, 2008
Morning Roundup--Put on your reading glasses!
One of Sassy's heroes, Paul Krugman, just won the Nobel Prize for Economics!
Big media is afraid of Obama and is spinning the numbers to prove it.
WaPo has a new poll out with lots of good stuff in there for Obama as he continues to steadily improve his numbers. There was also this tidbit, kind of amazing how big the spread can be in the polling but then it tightens up so much on race day:
"While there are few signs of progress for McCain in the poll, recent history suggests that mid-October leads are vulnerable, although turning around a late double-digit deficit would be unprecedented in the modern era. At this stage in 1992, Bill Clinton held a 14-point advantage over incumbent George H.W. Bush in Post-ABC polling, and it was as high as 19 points before the election, which he won by six points. In mid-October 1976, Jimmy Carter had leads as big as 13 points in Gallup polling; Carter defeated incumbent Gerald Ford by two points. "
An excerpt from McCain's new stump speech for the closing weeks of the campaign ("We've got them just where we want them"? Really?):
Game Changer?: McCain is planning to visit David Letterman on Thursday.
Factoid for the Day:
In every election since the Nixon presidency, Americans have chosen the candidate they feel is more likable. After the second presidential debate, an Oct. 7 CNN poll found that viewers found Obama more likable, 65 percent to 28 percent.
Big media is afraid of Obama and is spinning the numbers to prove it.
WaPo has a new poll out with lots of good stuff in there for Obama as he continues to steadily improve his numbers. There was also this tidbit, kind of amazing how big the spread can be in the polling but then it tightens up so much on race day:
"While there are few signs of progress for McCain in the poll, recent history suggests that mid-October leads are vulnerable, although turning around a late double-digit deficit would be unprecedented in the modern era. At this stage in 1992, Bill Clinton held a 14-point advantage over incumbent George H.W. Bush in Post-ABC polling, and it was as high as 19 points before the election, which he won by six points. In mid-October 1976, Jimmy Carter had leads as big as 13 points in Gallup polling; Carter defeated incumbent Gerald Ford by two points. "
An excerpt from McCain's new stump speech for the closing weeks of the campaign ("We've got them just where we want them"? Really?):
"Let me give you the state of the race today. We have 22 days to go. We’re 6 points down. The national media has written us off. Senator Obama is measuring the drapes, and planning with Speaker Pelosi and Senator Reid to raise taxes, increase spending, take away your right to vote by secret ballot in labor elections, and concede defeat in Iraq. But they forgot to let you decide. My friends, we’ve got them just where we want them.
"What America needs in this hour is a fighter; someone who puts all his cards on the table and trusts the judgment of the American people. I come from a long line of McCains who believed that to love America is to fight for her. I have fought for you most of my life. There are other ways to love this country, but I’ve never been the kind to do it from the sidelines."
Ah, but Nate has a really good analysis of what he thinks McCain will try to do to turn this whole thing around. This week should be really interesting/scary. I'm pasting the entire piece here:
Is Drudge Priming a McCain "Reboot" Narrative?
Something is a little bit funny when Matt Drudge is treating 1-2 point gains for McCain in the Rasmussen and Zogby tracking polls as "BREAKING" news. Naturally, Drudge ignores other results like the just-released ABC/WaPo poll that show Obama continuing to gain ground.
Drudge has a nose for news, and he knows that a one-point gain in a tracking poll is not news -- unless someone desperately wants it to be.
So here's what I think is going on.
The McCain campaign is planning on a major "reboot" of its campaign in some point in advance of Wednesday night's debate. This will take on something of the form that Bill Kristol advocates in his must-read Monday AM piece in the Times, including some combination of (i) pledging to run a positive campaign; (ii) firing/demoting Steve Schmidt and or/Rick Davis; (iii) apologizing for his campaign's tone. In fact, Kristol's column may be something of a trial balloon for this strategy.
What the McCain campaign really, really doesn't want is for this move to be portrayed as desperate stunt. McCain has already developed a reputation for being a bit erratic under pressure -- the ABC/Post poll now shows that a 48-45 plurality of voters trust Obama to handle an "unexpected major crisis" -- and Bill Burton and Robert Gibbs must be foaming at the mouth waiting to spin something like this.
The only way for McCain to do that is for him to convince the media that he already had the momentum. The campaign will probably try and claim the moral highground, perhaps contrasting McCain's repudiation of the woman who called Obama an "Arab" on Friday against John Lewis's comments from Saturday. They will suggest that McCain found his voice, and made the "maverick" move of telling off the Beltway Republicans who were urging him to go for blood. They will suggest that the reboot is a continuation of this strategy, and that -- as the Zogby poll so obviously attests to! -- voters were already responding favorably to McCain's new tone.
It won't be an easy spin war for them to win. But they'd seem to have little left to lose, and if the media is reminded of the "old" McCain, they may tend to give his narrative the benefit of the doubt.
Factoid for the Day:
In every election since the Nixon presidency, Americans have chosen the candidate they feel is more likable. After the second presidential debate, an Oct. 7 CNN poll found that viewers found Obama more likable, 65 percent to 28 percent.
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Nate Silver is my the Man!
So, I was just doing a quick review of my news sites before powering down for the night. Decided to give Drudge a look-see even though he hasn't been up to much lately. Wouldn't you know he has all these links showing McCain gaining ground on Obama in the polls (including Zogby, which even I know is the least accurate) but my heart starts racing anyway and I'm freaking out. Thinking I'll need to start heading to swing states during the week, write more checks to Obama, and just generally working myself into a frenzy.
Then I wonder "What would Nate think about all this"? Wouldn't you know, I check his site (which hadn't been updated most of the day) and he's had a cold but is updating his polls and checking assumptions. All of which leads to incredibly good news for Barack and bad news for you-know-who. Here's the most significant part of the post:
"As has been true for most of the post-convention period, Barack Obama appears to have a structural edge in the Electoral College. Colorado is a big part of that. Presently, we are showing a lead for Obama of about 6.5 points in the national popular vote (our model assumes the race will tighten a bit, so we're expecting that number to fall to 5.4 points by Election Day). But if you look at our current estimates in the individual states -- this is the 'snapshot' line in the polling table -- you'll see that we have Obama ahead by at least 8 points in all of the Kerry states, plus the Gore add-ons of Iowa and New Mexico, plus Colorado, plus Virginia. Collectively, those states are worth 286 electoral votes -- well more than Obama needs to win. So while McCain has something like a 6-7 point deficit to make up in the popular vote, the gap is more like 8 points in any set of states that would give him a winning electoral combination."
Plus Nate even mentions Matt Drudge and how he's desperately trying to find good news in some of the national polls. It's like Nate and I are totally rocking the same wavelength.
Sigh.
Then I wonder "What would Nate think about all this"? Wouldn't you know, I check his site (which hadn't been updated most of the day) and he's had a cold but is updating his polls and checking assumptions. All of which leads to incredibly good news for Barack and bad news for you-know-who. Here's the most significant part of the post:
"As has been true for most of the post-convention period, Barack Obama appears to have a structural edge in the Electoral College. Colorado is a big part of that. Presently, we are showing a lead for Obama of about 6.5 points in the national popular vote (our model assumes the race will tighten a bit, so we're expecting that number to fall to 5.4 points by Election Day). But if you look at our current estimates in the individual states -- this is the 'snapshot' line in the polling table -- you'll see that we have Obama ahead by at least 8 points in all of the Kerry states, plus the Gore add-ons of Iowa and New Mexico, plus Colorado, plus Virginia. Collectively, those states are worth 286 electoral votes -- well more than Obama needs to win. So while McCain has something like a 6-7 point deficit to make up in the popular vote, the gap is more like 8 points in any set of states that would give him a winning electoral combination."
Plus Nate even mentions Matt Drudge and how he's desperately trying to find good news in some of the national polls. It's like Nate and I are totally rocking the same wavelength.
Sigh.
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