So, I was just doing a quick review of my news sites before powering down for the night. Decided to give Drudge a look-see even though he hasn't been up to much lately. Wouldn't you know he has all these links showing McCain gaining ground on Obama in the polls (including Zogby, which even I know is the least accurate) but my heart starts racing anyway and I'm freaking out. Thinking I'll need to start heading to swing states during the week, write more checks to Obama, and just generally working myself into a frenzy.
Then I wonder "What would Nate think about all this"? Wouldn't you know, I check his site (which hadn't been updated most of the day) and he's had a cold but is updating his polls and checking assumptions. All of which leads to incredibly good news for Barack and bad news for you-know-who. Here's the most significant part of the post:
"As has been true for most of the post-convention period, Barack Obama appears to have a structural edge in the Electoral College. Colorado is a big part of that. Presently, we are showing a lead for Obama of about 6.5 points in the national popular vote (our model assumes the race will tighten a bit, so we're expecting that number to fall to 5.4 points by Election Day). But if you look at our current estimates in the individual states -- this is the 'snapshot' line in the polling table -- you'll see that we have Obama ahead by at least 8 points in all of the Kerry states, plus the Gore add-ons of Iowa and New Mexico, plus Colorado, plus Virginia. Collectively, those states are worth 286 electoral votes -- well more than Obama needs to win. So while McCain has something like a 6-7 point deficit to make up in the popular vote, the gap is more like 8 points in any set of states that would give him a winning electoral combination."
Plus Nate even mentions Matt Drudge and how he's desperately trying to find good news in some of the national polls. It's like Nate and I are totally rocking the same wavelength.
Sigh.
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