Poll watching from Nate. No notable movement right now.
"In Chuck Todd we trust; all others must bring data. And right now, we're in something of a holding pattern, waiting to see the next turn in the race. Obama's momentum has possibly stalled out, but has probably yet begun to reverse itself. It's also possible that Obama's momentum was on the verge of reversing itself before Wednesday night's debate, but that the debate was enough to hold McCain off or perhaps even shift things further in Obama's direction. Furthermore, it's possible that the numbers will simply flatline until November 4 as Obama runs out McCain's clock (with no more major events on the campaign calendar, this may in fact be the most likely possibility). We will probably know a lot more about this race by Sunday or Monday, once the impacts of the debate are fully accounted for."
House races expected to go easily R are now being moved the D column by the Cook Report. From Kos:
The tsunami cometh, and that right soon.
With two weeks to go, the Cook Political Report - one of the very best sources of political analysis in the business, particularly in analyzing House races - has made a major shift in their House ratings, moving 25 races ratings in one fell swoop.
All of this movement favors Democrats.
Cook acknowledges that the political climate is ripe for a major Democratic wave:
For House Republicans, already dark days are getting darker. Movement in Congressional races tends to accelerate in mid-October, and with the exception of Rep. Tim Mahoney’s district (FL-16), every district on the move is headed in Democrats’ direction. Heavy Democratic spending and the GOP’s cash shortfall are taking its toll on Republican candidates in districts that the committees have targeted all cycle long. But the state of the economy and the presidential race are exposing weak GOP polling numbers even in seats neither party had given much thought.
Cook's current projection is that Democrats will gain 20-25 seats in the House.
Sarah Palin is expected to be on SNL tonight with Tina Fey.
I don't typically put too much credence on newspaper endorsements but this year may be a little different. The Tribune's endorsement, in particular, felt so monumental. Comparing Barack to Abe Lincoln? Finally we're a part of history in the making that we can be proud of. And plus there's this:
The Obama-Biden ticket maintains its strong lead in the race for newspaper endorsements, picking up 17 more papers in the past day, including the giant Los Angeles Times and Chicago Tribune on Friday afternoon (see separate story), and the Denver Post, Atlanta Journal-Constitution, The Salt Lake Tribune, Kansas City Star, Southwest News-Herald (Ill.) and Chicago Sun-Times tonight.
This brings his lead over McCain-Palin by this measure to well over 3-1, at 58-16, including most of the major papers that have decided so far. In contrast, John Kerry barely edged George W. Bush in endorsements in 2004, by about 220 to 205.
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