"If the balance of today's national polls contain better news for McCain, the balance of the state polls show Obama continuing to perform very well in several swing states. Obama now has 15-point lead in New Hampshire according to the Boston Globe / UNH poll, which had generally contained good news for McCain earlier in this cycle. PPP puts Obama up by 9 in Virginia, while two new polls also show him with significant leads in Iowa.
Counteracting the Obama trend sightly are new polls in Wisconsin and Missouri, which show somewhat better numbers for McCain than other recent polls of those states. However, that is not enough to prevent McCain's win percentage from drifting downward to 3.3 percent."
More comforting polling analysis from Rasmussen:
Today is the 31st straight day that Obama’s voter support has stayed between 50% and 52%. During that period, the number voting for McCain has stayed in the 44% to 46% range every day and the gap between the candidates has ranged from four to eight percentage points.
However, while the overall levels of support have remained stable, voters have become more certain of their intent. Today, the percentage who say they could still change their mind is down to single digits. Forty-eight percent (48%) are now certain they will vote for Obama while 39% say the same about McCain. One month ago, while Obama enjoyed a five-point lead overall, just 41% of voters were certain they would vote for him. At that time, 39% said the same about McCain (see other recent demographic highlights and trends).
Meanwhile, an Arizona poll for the Democratic strategy firm Project New West shows John McCain ahead by just 4 points there, and a couple of other polls showing a close race in McCain's home state are apparently on the way. In terms of our model, the principal effect of the Arizona polls is really not on the Grand Canyon State itself, where our model remains skeptical of an Obama upset, but rather in terms of its neighbor New Mexico, where our it is now (even) more optimistic about Obama's chances.
Nate also debunks the premise behind an article on Salon about the Bradley effect in the 2006 elections. Basically, the writer (a Repug, sooprize sooprize) cherry-picked the polls he used to make his point that several black candidates lost by larger margins than predicted.
Voter turnout in one county in Florida spurs talk of an upset Obama win.
An interesting article by the NY bureau chief for WaPo about how the rise of Obama is still only an American story.
Obama to give his "closing" speech today in Ohio which will include themes of hope, unity etc. McCain to continue talking trash and generally bitching and moaning.
1 comment:
Regarding the "closing speech" Obama will begin offering today, the NY Times mentioned Barack has writen it with his chief speechwriter Jon Favreau. As a reminder, here is Favreau's wikibio:
"Jon Favreau is the chief speechwriter for Barack Obama's 2008 campaign for President of the United States.
Favreau joined Senator John Kerry's 2004 campaign for President after graduating from The College of the Holy Cross in 2003. In 2005 he began working for Barack Obama in his U.S. Senate office, before joining Obama's presidential campaign as chief speechwriter in 2007.
Favreau is no relation to the actor and director Jon Favreau."
GRADUATED IN 2003! He's like 26 years old!
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