From our friend Nate: "This is not the time when John McCain can afford a bad polling day. And yet he's had perhaps his worst one of the year." Silver now has Obama at 96.3% chance of winning, his highest level to date. And the state odds are crazy good.
Pennsylvania: 99% (same as McCain winning Louisiana)
Virginia: 95%
New Mexico: 94%
Colorado: 93%
Ohio: 83%
Florida: 77%
Nevada: 71%
Missouri: 69%
North Carolina: 69%
Indiana: 68%
All this gives Obama better than even odds (54.3%) at a landslide (> 375 electoral votes). Wow!
3 comments:
he's my friend nate. just sayin.
Those are incredible numbers. I wonder at what point these poll numbers simply convince the public that the election is over, keeping McCain voters from the polls.
Dave, I bet that tipping point has happened.
I've even read speculation that voters jumping-from-McCain's-ship could be a reason for the polls being so strong for Obama: former-McCain backers see on their caller ID that a pollster is calling and have no interest in talking about an election that, to them, sucks. So pollsters are having trouble even talking to a critical mass of McCain people (except in crazy Oklahoma, Wyoming, Idaho and Utah).
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