Looked at broadly, Obama's percent of the vote has been within a very narrow range of 48% to 50% over the last ten days, and McCain's has been within an equally narrow range of 42% of 44% over the same time period. These results suggest that aside from normal sampling error, the underlying dynamics of the race have become quite stable, and underscore the degree to which there has been little meaningful change in the race in well over a week.
Almost all the pollsters agree: Biden and Obama won their debates. Stupid pundits.
From today's Hater's file:
Palin inspires audience to kill.
And McCain's fans think Obama is a terrorist. Who's McCain to disagree?
Oh, dear. Even Ted Stevens thinks he's going to jail. No biggie, it's not like he's getting fired on in Baghdad. From a tapped conversation:
From a tapped conversation between Stevens and Veco CEO Bill Allen, the man who hooked Stevens up with all the sexy additions to his apartment that got him investigated by the Feds:
Such pretty polls:Stevens: "If there's a violation of the elections law then that's a corporate violation."
Allen: "Yeah."
Stevens: "This thing shouldn't get your bind, little buddy."
Allen: "Well it has man, all day."
Stevens: "Well, well you gotta just stand back and say, what's gonna happen when it's all over, you gotta get a mental attitude that these guys can't really hurt us, you know, they're not gonna shoot us, its not Iraq, so what the hell. Worse that's gonna happen to us is we round up a bunch of legal fees and might lose and might have to pay a fine, might have to serve a little time in jail."
- 10/6: Gallup Pres-Tracker: Obama 50%, McCain 42%
- 10/6: Hotline/Diageo Pres-Tracker: Obama 47%, McCain 41%
- 10/6: Rasmussen Pres-Tracker: Obama 52%, McCain 44%
- 10/6: Res. 2000 Pres-Tracker: Obama 52%, McCain 40%
- 10/6: ABC/WaPo OH: Obama 51%, McCain 45%
- 10/6: Rasmussen FL: Obama 52%, McCain 45%
- 10/6: Rasmussen MO: Obama 50%, McCain 47%
- 10/6: Rasmussen OH: McCain 48%, Obama 47%
- 10/6: CNN Pres: Obama 53%, McCain 45%
- 10/6: PPP (D) NC: Obama 50%, McCain 44%
Oh, but WSJ has more independents moving towards Obama.
And then there's Nate, who is practically giddy.
"You can read these numbers as well as I can. Obama leads by 6 in North Carolina? 12 in Virginia? 7 in Florida? 3 in Missouri? Obviously, I am cherrypicking some of the more pro-Obama results here ... but the point is, there are a lot of favorable results these days for Barack Obama.
The larger Obama's margin in the popular vote becomes (and over the course of the past several weeks, he's been gaining a full a point on McCain roughly every three days) the less the relative positioning of the states matters. For John McCain to get back into this race, he is going to need some dramatic events to occur, and we don't know in which types of states such events might have a differential impact; something like an outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East could make a very different electoral footprint than new revelations about Barack Obama and William Ayers.
For that reason, the proper strategy is probably now to play a fairly large map; Obama in particular wants to keep as many doors open as possible if and when something bad happens to his campaign.
For the time being, however, John McCain is facing third and long -- and appears that he's about to get sacked."
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