Friday, January 27, 2012
Just How Bad Was Newt's Debate Performance Last Night?
The coverage this morning is pretty universal in declaring last night's debate a complete debacle for Newt. Thus, it sounds like Mitt has recaptured momentum (Intrade has his odds of winning Florida at 90%). Given his big advantage in media spending, it seems like Newt's goose could be cooked.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Morning Roundup--The Final Stretch
CNN, CBS, MediaCurves, the focus groups, all the same results. Obama wins big.
One more data piece on the Obama debate win from Democracy Corps:
Obama was seen as the clear victor in the debate, and a group that was much more disposed to support McCain at the outset instead shifted decisively toward Obama (42 to 20 percent) after viewing the debate.
So, let's give the unanimous debate win to Obama.
Gail Collins is reading my mind. I'm ready for election night.
Joe the Plumber may have been a McCain campaign plant. This should surprise no one.
The Virginia GOP has a new mailer about Obama that is so nasty it has to be seen to be believed.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Post Debate Polling
Live Blog, Part II
8:35 Obama's taking on the William Ayers attacks, and ACORN. Again, why is Barack having to spend so much time defending himself?
8:36 Good line by Barack about who he consults for his policies.
8:38 Now the question is running mates. Ilsa wants to know when they're actually going to talk about domestic policy.
8:39 Barack's getting good positives on the CNN dial thingy talking about Biden.
8:41 McCain goes on the same track about Palin being a reformer. He even talks about sweeping out the good old boys in Washington with a straight face.
8:42 Nice point by Barack that McCain's stance on combating autism would require spending and wouldn't happen with a spending freeze.
8:43 Did McCain really say cockamamie? What's next, bee's knees?
8:46 This is Ilsa, Dave is taking a break to eat gluten-free cookies. McCain is being a total d*** tonight (sorry, Mom). I just can't believe he's winning anyone over with this sarcastic bulldog persona. He's got nothing substantive to say so he just goes after Obama, who actually has thoughtful, complex policy recommendations.
8:50 A mini-debate between Bridget and Penny just broke out about who's to blame for the candidates being so off-topic. It got nasty as Penny called Bridget, "That one."
8:52 Barack's on a good track talking about producing fuel efficient cars. Meanwhile, the room is captivated by McCain's odd expressions as he reacts silently.
8:53 Does McCain think he's really gaining points talking about Colombia.
8:54 Now he tried to compare Barack to Hoover again!
8:55 Is anyone unfamiliar with Barack's general plans for health care? Another topic that we've heard a lot about.
8:56 Let me extract my cyber-foot from my mouth. The room just pointed out that the dialy thingy is going crazy. I guess people want to hear about Barack's health plan.
8:57 Wow, McCain's health proposals are not fairing as well. And, will he ever quit talking about Joe the plumber.
8:59 Barack just pointed out that he exempts small businesses from his fine for not providing health insurance and McCain's shocked look is really hard to describe. He looked like he was mentally sputtering.
9:00 Now Barack's attacking McCain's plan. Interesting. He's making good points about McCain's plan to tax his $5,000 tax credit. He's on a roll. Clearly, he's more comfortable talking policy and less talking about political shenanigans like attack ads.
9:01 What the crap is McCain talking about by talking about how Joe is rich?
9:02 McCain makes the bold declaration that he will tax gold-plated Cadillacs. Watch out Master P! Oh wait, he was talking about health care plans.
9:04 Barack is killing McCain on health care.
9:05 Okay, while McCain's rambling about Roe and the SCOTUS, I'm bringing Part II to an end.
Prez Debate III Liveblog
8:01 McCain thanks everyone except Barack for having the debate. Classy.
8:02 Again, John blames Fannie and Freddie for the housing crisis. He simply does not understand the root causes, or that Fannie and Freddie followed the rest of the financial industry into subprime lending.
8:04 Did Barack just diss the American worker while singing the praises of the middle class? Oops.
8:07 Barack got the first laugh in cutting off McCain's attack on taxes. So far, though, both are just going back and forth about their tax proposals.
8:09 McCain is on the attack about tax increases.
8:10 If Barack keeps on this track of looking out for the little guy, I think he'll be fine with this tax discussion.
8:11 Again, McCain misrepresents corporate taxes in America.
8:12 Yikes, Bob just busted out a doozy with the question on the deficits.
8:13 Barack's on about going line by line in the budget to find ways to pay for his programs. The room doesn't like that answer.
8:15 Again McCain promises to bring the government to a halt with a spending freeze.
8:16 McCain calls for a line item veto! You've got to be kidding me!
8:17 Does this debate look familiar to anyone? Haven't we already covered this ground two times?
8:18 McCain's first direct attack! "I'm not President Bush."
8:21 Barack has a good response taking McCain to task on his claims about tax increases, and directly says that McCain is proposing 8 more years of the same economic policies.
8:23 Bob is trying to start a fight by asking the candidates to make their charges directly to each other.
8:25 McCain is just spewing B.S. right now. He's trying to blame Barack for the nasty tone of the GOP ads.
8:27 Barack responds by saying that they should be talking about policy, not personal attacks.
8:30 We're on to the John Lewis stuff. How are they spending so much time about the most aggressive Democratic attack and ignoring the ugly GOP rallies?
8:31 McCain's proud of the people who come to his rallies. And, he keeps saying that he's repudiated the people who say negative things during this campaign. It seems that Barack is spending a lot of time on the defensive during this whole thing, but he is doing a pretty good job of trying to keep moving to the positive policy stuff that he'd rather address right now.
McCain Takes the Bait
In an interview on a St. Louis radio station, McCain said Obama's comments that "I didn't have the guts" to talk about William Ayers in the last presidential debate have "probably ensured" that the former 1960s radical will come up in Wednesday's debate.
Mr. Smooth just released a memo about tonight's debate:
"Just this weekend, John McCain vowed to 'whip Obama's you-know-what' at the debate," he writes, "and he's indicated that he'll use Bill Ayers to attack Barack Obama... Senator Obama is going to use the debate to discuss his plan for the economy. That's what he's been doing this entire campaign." McCain is so predictable, like any schoolyard bully.
For more on the Obama strategy, click here.
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Obama's Debate Pre-Buttal
Saturday, October 4, 2008
Final words on the debate
Biden Palin Undecided
CNN/Opinion Research 51 36
CBS 46 21
Fox 61 39
Survey USA 51 32 17
MediaCurves (indies) 67 33
Friday, October 3, 2008
Sassy is Sleepy, a little hungover, and still buzzing from way too much chocolate
CBS: Biden wins debate, among uncommitted voters.
I like this perspective from Nate:
"Palin's largest problem, to my eyes, is that she was tangibly nervous for most of the debate, rushing through talking points and canned jokes alike with unsually little inflection. I doubt that this will impact her favorables much -- in fact, it seems likely that her favroables will improve. But it may contribute to the increasing feelings of dis-ease that some voters have with the McCain campaign, which no longer seems like the manifestly safer choice."
Most polls showed that people's opinion had improved of Palin (but she had nowhere to go but up). That was usually true of Biden as well. In fact, I thought his performance was beautiful--warm, honest, smart, organized. Obama could even take a few lessons from him. If anyone exceeded expectations, it's Biden. I think we not only dodged a bullet here, but we gained some good will from undecideds. Nowback to what really matters--the presidential campaign.
Speaking of, a great article on why McCain can't win.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
This Just In: Most of Sassy Out of Touch Again
N.B.: Truth be told, Penny was optimistic both times. Seems like she knows something about the psychology of politics.
Veep Debate Live Blogging, Part I
7:58 Like FDR, Gwen Ifills is already out on stage so no one sees her in her wheelchair. Oh, and Ilsa already yelled at everyone, so we're ready to go.
7:59 Penny went all professorial on us and analyzed the podium position. I think I'm out of my league.
8:01 And they're out. Sarah just asked if she could call Biden, "Joe." Strange.
8:03 Joe's up first about the bailout package. Really, the very picture of a polish politician in his answer. Palin's already busting out the folksy "betcha." This room could get ugly.
8:05 What no follow-ups?!?
8:06 OMG, she winked! The room just about lost it.
8:07 Gwen asks the candidates who was to blame. Could be interesting.
8:08 Again with the folksy. She's also looking straight at the camera, clearly trying to make a connection with the viewers. If she keeps with this tack, she could pull it off.
8:09 Biden's doing a good job putting the blame on deregulation and tying deregulation to McCain. It's a real contrast. Biden is playing the role of the stately politician and she's going for woman of the people.
8:12 Palin's sticking with the talking points, and the untruths. Sure, FactCheck.org will pick this apart, but will viewers notice?
8:13 Palin just admitted that she's going to talk about what she wants, regardless of what the questions are.
8:14 We're on to taxes. Didn't we already here 35 minutes of this last week? But, Biden's getting a little fire in his speech. He's warming up.
8:16 She was a little wobbly for a bit talking taxes, but regained control. Josh, on the other hand, easily the calmest person we all know, is actually showing signs of losing his cool.
8:17 Joe just gave the Scranton and Wilmington shout out! They both want to claim the middle class.
8:18 Joe pulls out a policy point, explaining how McCain offsets his healthcare tax credits. I don't think we'll be hearing that from the other podium.
8:19 First sound byte, Joe: "I call that the ultimate bridge to nowhere."
8:19 Gwen asks, what will you have to cut because of the economic troubles? Joe says, McCain's tax cuts. Nice. Again, a little fire building. He's picking up steam.
8:21 With no regard to the questions, she went to a talking point about energy.
8:22 She's talking so much about the little person and fighting big oil that you'd think she's courting the Nader vote.
8:23 The dynamic as I see it: Palin spouts her notes and Biden has to spend time on the policy specifics to refute it. I think Biden needs to get more aggressive and get her to leave the comfort of her note cards.
8:25 For the second time, she said McCain suspended his campaign. Biden needs to call her out!
8:26 Gwen goes after Joe for his vote on the bankruptcy bill. Joe's record is working against him because he actually has one.
8:28 Palin completely ignores the question and Lydia calls it "flagrant." The room here is calling for Gwen (or Joe) to confront her. Ilsa's so frustrated, she just turned to the candy corn.
8:29 Almost on cue, Bridget mentions she looks nervous and Palin rambles in weird SNL circles.
8:31 On whether global warming is man made, Biden pulls out that you can't fix a problem if you don't know what the source is.
8:32 Side note: Biden corrected himself when he said, "Sarah," immediately switching to "Governor." Clearly he's under orders to be respectful.
8:34 They're arguing about mythical clean coal. Time for me to check in on the Cubs game. Stay tuned for part two.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Morning Roundup
Ifill Releasing Pro-OBama Book-- according to FOX News McCain didn't know about this when he agreed to Ifill as the debate moderator. Betcha Palin withdraws...
And now for some good news, in a new poll Obama leads in OH, FL and PA. Gotta see what Nate thinks about this poll.
The Senate steps up.
Nate Silver analyzes the post-debate polls.
"So Obama may not have persuaded that many voters on Friday night (I don't think his performance, frankly, was all that persuasive). But he may have reassured and locked in some of his soft supporters -- perhaps Clinton voters and working class Dems."
Monday, September 29, 2008
Just in time for the debate
Buried near the end of today's column from Howard Kurtz, where he is talking about Sarah Palin's disastrous interview with Katie Couric, was this interesting tidbit:
And the worst may be yet to come for Palin; sources say CBS has two more responses on tape that will likely prove embarrassing.
Given the excruciatingly bad answers she gave on Alaska's proximity to Russia giving her foreign policy experience, or her take on the $700 billion bailout, it's hard to believe that there's anything worse...isn't it? But the important question is, what is CBS waiting for? Why haven't they aired the entire tape?
Oh, and...
Via USA Today, we hear from Didi Lima, GOP communications (!) director in Clark County, Nevada:
"We don't want (Hispanics) to become the new African-American community," Lima told The Associated Press. "And that's what the Democratic Party is going to do to them, create more programs and give them handouts, food stamps and checks for this and checks for that. We don't want that."
"I'm very much afraid that the Democratic Party is going to do the same thing that they did with the African-American culture and make them all dependent on the government and we don't want that," she said.
Lima "was removed from her post" after the remarks, according to the article, and lost her second position as well.
In August, Lima was named co-chair of McCain's Nevada Hispanic Leadership Team, which aimed to reach out to a crucial voting bloc in a state where polls show McCain in a dead heat with Barack Obama.
both posts from kos
Saturday, September 27, 2008
Debate Hangover
Jonathan Alter on MSNBC: The biggest loser? Sarah Palin. The debates set a standard she cannot live up to.
On top of that, McCain's defensive, tense, and snarky demeanor lost him points with pretty much every columnist covering this story. It will be interesting to see if he changes his posture and eye contact for the next debate.
A lot of today's columnists are saying that either there was no knock-out punch or Obama won. Either way, this was McCain's chance for a game-changer. He failed and Sarah Palin ain't gonna help next week. She wasn't even allowed on TV last night after the debates. I think, too, that those who believe McCain won on the foreign policy part of the debate (like WSJ) agree with McCain's world view. But this debate was more about the undecideds and according to the CBS poll and even Fox News focus group last night (which Sassy watched, though not happily)--they aren't even closed to being convinced McCain is the guy. That's good news for the good guys.
As TPM put it: "McCain last night needed to suddenly reveal Obama as frighteningly unpresidential, unprepared, and potentially incompetent in the realm of international affairs. In short, McCain needed to force a moment where Obama looked a bit like, well, McCain's running mate. He needed to startle the electorate into seeing this race in a new way. And he didn't do that. Not even close."
Not even close. Just like the election.
Friday, September 26, 2008
McCain Preemptively Declares Victory in Debate

It's On
Tune in later and keep your fingers crossed for special guest-blogger Professor Wu.
(And let's see how long before Ilsa uses an expletive.)
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Nice
but the campaign expects him to show. the bailout is practically approved and McC's mouthpieces were on the morning shows today badmouthing Barack, as usual. So much for the suspended campaign.
Either way, congrats to Obama for, once again, making the right call in a politically touchy environment.
Oh, What will today bring?
Sunday: McCain Endorses Bailout... Tuesday: McCain Says He Hasn't Actually Read Bailout Plan... Wednesday: Obama Leads In Polls, McCain "Suspends" Campaign To Focus Exclusively On Bailout...Then Tapes Interview With Katie Couric... Wednesday Night: Dems Say They've Already Reached Deal On Bailout
these two articles are a good snapshot of how the more moderate/right press are talking about this story. seeems fairly balanced and actually somewhat critical of mccain.
USA Today
FOX News
oh, this is rich. apparently palin is suspending her campaign as well. why?!??! she has absolutely nothing to do with the bailout talks. man, they must really want her off the trail and out of the debates. bloggers are speculating that her prep for the debates is a big disaster and that it's better to take the hit from this kind of media stunt than to allow her to be involved in any kind of relatively unscripted venue. absolutely amazing that we're at this point.
And then there's
Letterman
I Love Dave. No, not that Dave.
And, from Bridget's fave, Barney Frank.
Democrats Claim Wall St Bailout Breakthrough
oops, bad timing for McC
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
I Knew it!
from kos
According to CNN, McCain's camp is now proposing that the debate be postponed by moving it to into the time and venue of the vice presidential debate, scheduled for Oct. 2nd in St. Louis. The Biden-Palin debate would then be itself rescheduled to happen later on.
So, that'd be delaying two debates, not just one. And what are the odds that the vice presidential debate would manage to somehow never get rescheduled, given the McCain camp's intensive efforts to keep her away from reporters and questioners?