Mitt and Newt

With Mitt's definitive win in Florida yesterday, the blogs are talking endgame. Despite Newt's declarations of scorched earth politicking, most are asking how long he'll actually stay in the race. Robert Wright at the Atlantic predicts 10 more days.

I feel like I'm also seeing a lot more deeper looks at Mitt today. Frank Rich wrote a very interesting piece on how little people seem to know about who he really is. Meanwhile, Charlie Pierce, who's blog on Esquire I only recently discovered and absolutely love for it's profane cattiness, submitted a fierce post on Mitt and his money-backed Florida win (he actually compares him to TV's Dexter).

Of course, Mitt made his own headlines today by uttering this deliciously tone-deaf gaffe: "I'm not concerned about the very poor." You don't say?

Just How Bad Was Newt's Debate Performance Last Night?

Did any of you watch the GOP debate last night? I was on a plane coming back from Florida but honestly would have watched IU lose to Wisconsin if I'd been around a TV.

The coverage this morning is pretty universal in declaring last night's debate a complete debacle for Newt. Thus, it sounds like Mitt has recaptured momentum (Intrade has his odds of winning Florida at 90%). Given his big advantage in media spending, it seems like Newt's goose could be cooked.

Sunshine State Dispatch

Unsurprisingly, the GOP race is hitting the airwaves pretty hard here in Florida. My Floridian co-workers have told me that they are already sick of all the ads. That's unfortunate for them because they still have a week to go before the primary and the candidates are spending serious coin on ads. Mitt's apparently already bought $2 million in TV ads in the state and who knows how much his PACs have purchased. Newt's trying to catch up and one of his super PACs has reportedly purchased $6 million in ad time.

Sadly, my job has seriously cut into my local TV watching time so I don't yet have a real sense of who's dominating the airwaves. In fact, I've seen almost as many ads for David Maus Chevrolet ("Whatever It Takes!") but it does appear that Mitt has the upper hand for now. I think I've seen one pro-Newt ad while I've seen maybe half-a-dozen Romney ads with this one leading the way by far:



As you can see, Romney is trying to punch a hole in Newt's claims of being an outsider and for his ties to Freddie Mac. If I'm not wrong, those are the same attacks that seriously hurt Newt in Iowa. We'll see how effective they are this time around.

Big Day in Hyde Park

All of these things happened today:

1. David Axelrod announced that he is creating an Institute of Politics at the University of Chicago.
2. Team Sassy watched Mayor Emanuel, Rachel Maddow, George Stephanopoulos, David Brooks, and Alex Castellanos have a sit down about the 2012 election.
3. Bridget came very close to crying her way into the event where this all took place.
4. Ilsa enabled Bridget to preserve some of her dignity by (sooprise, sooprise) working her connections at the University (real quote: “You didn’t say your friend was ILSA FLANAGAN.”)

It was a fascinating, and oddly sexually charged, conversation. Here are some random highlights from my perspective:

1. The consensus was that Romney would be the Republican’s candidate and that he is a pretty problematic choice, or as Rachel Maddow put it: “[Romney] is the tallest midget.” Brooks tried to walk his criticism back a little, but it was still pretty clear that the Rs on the panel wished they had a stronger choice. This isn’t to say that they feel that Obama is a shoo-in, more that they’re surprised the Rs couldn’t do better.
2. Alex Castellanos ran Romney’s 2008 campaign, but doesn’t seem to have a whole lot of love for him. Nothing overt, but I wouldn’t say he was campaigning for him at this event. On the other hand, Alex (and other panelists) have very clear disdain for Newt. As Castellanos said in dismissing Newt’s surge in SC, “Every time Newt stands up, he hits his head on the ceiling.”
3. Maddow thinks that the Dem base is “inspirationed out.” She would like to see Obama use the SOTU to outline small clear steps the government can take to improve the economy, etc. Rahm disagreed, saying that is how you govern, but not how you campaign. Castellanos was somewhere in the middle, wanting to get people to be able to see “above the horizon again,” but also acknowledging that the fervor of 2008 was unlikely (“It’s not all that exciting when you lose your virginity the 2^nd time.” Yep. He said that.)
4. On the current political context, Brooks made an interesting point about not having a majority party and a minority party right now, but rather 2 minority parties. He believes that this forces parties to be more entrenched, insular, and unwilling to compromise.
5. I found Brooks to be extremely charming and engaging, but he demolished almost all of the good will I was beginning to feel for him when he said that he would like to see a Nader-Buchanan presidential ticket. Uh, say what again? 
6. Rahm was heckled by protesters shouting about budget cuts and Chicago being a police state. It went on longer than I expected, stretched out by the use of the "human megaphone," and was extremely annoying and/but pretty effective.

Thanks to Ilsa for getting me into the event. Looking forward to her thoughts on the afternoon.

Oh Boy, Oh Boy, Oh Boy, Oh Boy!!

ABC News is apparently airing an interview with Newt Gingrich's ex-wife, er, second ex-wife, Marianne, tonight. Here's a sneak peek:



Awesomeness!

Newt on the Attack

As promised, Newt is pursuing a scorched earth campaign against Romney in New Hampshire. One salvo is a 30-minute film and a pro-Newt PAC has produced. Here's the hard-hitting trailer: