Muppets Respond to Fox Business

Because it looks like the Florida GOP primary will be relatively boring today, I'm looking elsewhere for my political amusement today. Luckily, this is hitting the Intertubes.

Remember a while back when some knucklehead from Fox Business claimed that the new Muppet movie was trying to brainwash American children with liberalism? Well, in a press conference following their London premiere, Kermit and Miss Piggy were asked for and gave a response:

Jan Brewer's "Reality"

My favorite line about denying reality came from an episode of "Mythbusters," when one of the stars responded to scientific evidence that his theory of a phenomenon was wrong said, "I reject your reality and substitute one of my own." Governor Brewer definitely seems to ascribe to that line.

After running around the airwaves trying to characterize her tarmac encounter with the President as a "tense" one in which she felt "a little bit threatened," witnesses of the event are starting to punch holes in her story. TPM has the details here and here, and offers an article chronicling the Governor's troubled relationship with the truth.

Bottom line: Jan Brewer's a clown. The sad thing is, FOX is going to try to run with this as a great example of a scrappy Tea Partier standing up to the tyrant-in-chief thus continuing their tradition of producing the most ill-informed viewers of any media outlet.

Just How Bad Was Newt's Debate Performance Last Night?

Did any of you watch the GOP debate last night? I was on a plane coming back from Florida but honestly would have watched IU lose to Wisconsin if I'd been around a TV.

The coverage this morning is pretty universal in declaring last night's debate a complete debacle for Newt. Thus, it sounds like Mitt has recaptured momentum (Intrade has his odds of winning Florida at 90%). Given his big advantage in media spending, it seems like Newt's goose could be cooked.

Presidential Smackdown

they never learn.  governor brewer just got a taste of what happens when you piss off a gangsta president.  she insults barack in a book, then plays nice in arizona yesterday, asks him to meet with her, and he's like "no way, bitch".  the picture is priceless. 

here's what she said in her book:

“It was [as] though President Obama thought he could lecture me, and I would learn at his knee,” she wrote, according to Capitol Media Services. “He thinks he can humor me and then get rid of me.”

Brief Interviews with Republican Floridians

Ever the intrepid reporter, I've talked with a whopping 2 Republicans and 1 Republican-leaning independent here in Florida. While you may doubt the validity of my sample size, I think the results are pretty interesting. They are all undecided and unexcited. One of them told me that she has proudly voted in every election since she turned 18 (she's probably in her sixties) but will most likely skip the GOP primary this time around because she can't bring herself to vote for any of the contenders.

This actually jives with what one of my other co-workers said about her ultra-conservative husband in Texas. He went into election season psyched about supporting someone to get Obama out of office but has pretty much checked out of the nomination process because of the uninspiring candidates.

But, these folks still claim to really want Obama out of office. If I had to bet, I'd assume they will all vote in November. The difference could be in their engagement before then. Hopefully, that will allow Barack to dominate the narrative and sway the undecideds.

Sunshine State Dispatch

Unsurprisingly, the GOP race is hitting the airwaves pretty hard here in Florida. My Floridian co-workers have told me that they are already sick of all the ads. That's unfortunate for them because they still have a week to go before the primary and the candidates are spending serious coin on ads. Mitt's apparently already bought $2 million in TV ads in the state and who knows how much his PACs have purchased. Newt's trying to catch up and one of his super PACs has reportedly purchased $6 million in ad time.

Sadly, my job has seriously cut into my local TV watching time so I don't yet have a real sense of who's dominating the airwaves. In fact, I've seen almost as many ads for David Maus Chevrolet ("Whatever It Takes!") but it does appear that Mitt has the upper hand for now. I think I've seen one pro-Newt ad while I've seen maybe half-a-dozen Romney ads with this one leading the way by far:



As you can see, Romney is trying to punch a hole in Newt's claims of being an outsider and for his ties to Freddie Mac. If I'm not wrong, those are the same attacks that seriously hurt Newt in Iowa. We'll see how effective they are this time around.

So, who's watching the SOTU?

Sassy's back in the news

at the Institute of Politics event. look closely.

Return of the Roving Reporter

The Roving Reporter is back and headed directly for the maelstrom! I have to go to Florida this week for work and with the upcoming primary, this is probably my most highly anticipated trip the Sunshine State ever. I plan on providing reports on:

--Crazy local political ads
--The views of any and all FL Republicans I can talk to (i.e., I'll be talking to work colleagues I've confirmed to be conservatives)
--Overheard in the airport

All this will be accompanied by photos of the most ridiculous things I can capture on film. Stay tuned!

Oh please, let's throw more crazy into the mix

the republicans are just not happy. bill kristol wants a new candidate:

Two months ago, I wrote an editorial headlined “Evitable.” The subhead captured the thrust of the piece: “It might not be Mitt. It could be Newt. It could be someone else.”

The editorial concluded:

“Or, if Iowa (January 3), New Hampshire (January 10) and South Carolina (January 21) produce fragmented results, and the state of the race is disheartening to Republicans, a late January entry [I'd now say an early February entry] by another candidate isn't out of the question, either

ross douthat agrees:

And do you know what? He’s (bill kristol) been right all along. Right that the decisions by various capable Republicans to forgo a presidential run this year have been a collective disgrace; right that Republican primary voters deserve a better choice than the one being presented to them; and right, as well, that even now it isn’t too late for one of the non-candidates to change their mind and run.

runmitchrun.com

Romney in freefall

How did I not notice that Sassy had come back to life? I'm supposed to be working on teaching stuff, but I can't help thinking about Mitt's freefall. Intrade is giving Mitt a 66.5% chance of winning the nomination, down from about 92% just two days ago. Just stunning!



Intrade also has Romney at about 59.4% for Florida at the end of the month, down from 95% on Thursday. I still think that Romney will win the nomination, but, with at least five general election swing states (Florida, Nevada, Colorado, Michigan, and Missouri) up before Super Tuesday, it will be interesting.

fond farewell

She's no Etta James, but watching this brought me to tears (just like the first time). Here's hoping that Etta is finally able to rest in peace, and that Obama is able to recapture even just a fraction of the magic.

(And even after all this time -- I still can't believe he's our president.)

DNC Hitting Romney Hard on Taxes

Check this out. I know we're all concerned that this issue is peaking too soon but this is really strong stuff:

And he sings real pretty, too

And...

Big Day in Hyde Park

All of these things happened today:

1. David Axelrod announced that he is creating an Institute of Politics at the University of Chicago.
2. Team Sassy watched Mayor Emanuel, Rachel Maddow, George Stephanopoulos, David Brooks, and Alex Castellanos have a sit down about the 2012 election.
3. Bridget came very close to crying her way into the event where this all took place.
4. Ilsa enabled Bridget to preserve some of her dignity by (sooprise, sooprise) working her connections at the University (real quote: “You didn’t say your friend was ILSA FLANAGAN.”)

It was a fascinating, and oddly sexually charged, conversation. Here are some random highlights from my perspective:

1. The consensus was that Romney would be the Republican’s candidate and that he is a pretty problematic choice, or as Rachel Maddow put it: “[Romney] is the tallest midget.” Brooks tried to walk his criticism back a little, but it was still pretty clear that the Rs on the panel wished they had a stronger choice. This isn’t to say that they feel that Obama is a shoo-in, more that they’re surprised the Rs couldn’t do better.
2. Alex Castellanos ran Romney’s 2008 campaign, but doesn’t seem to have a whole lot of love for him. Nothing overt, but I wouldn’t say he was campaigning for him at this event. On the other hand, Alex (and other panelists) have very clear disdain for Newt. As Castellanos said in dismissing Newt’s surge in SC, “Every time Newt stands up, he hits his head on the ceiling.”
3. Maddow thinks that the Dem base is “inspirationed out.” She would like to see Obama use the SOTU to outline small clear steps the government can take to improve the economy, etc. Rahm disagreed, saying that is how you govern, but not how you campaign. Castellanos was somewhere in the middle, wanting to get people to be able to see “above the horizon again,” but also acknowledging that the fervor of 2008 was unlikely (“It’s not all that exciting when you lose your virginity the 2^nd time.” Yep. He said that.)
4. On the current political context, Brooks made an interesting point about not having a majority party and a minority party right now, but rather 2 minority parties. He believes that this forces parties to be more entrenched, insular, and unwilling to compromise.
5. I found Brooks to be extremely charming and engaging, but he demolished almost all of the good will I was beginning to feel for him when he said that he would like to see a Nader-Buchanan presidential ticket. Uh, say what again? 
6. Rahm was heckled by protesters shouting about budget cuts and Chicago being a police state. It went on longer than I expected, stretched out by the use of the "human megaphone," and was extremely annoying and/but pretty effective.

Thanks to Ilsa for getting me into the event. Looking forward to her thoughts on the afternoon.

I Said to Keep This Kind of Thing Behind Closed Doors!

Via TPM, here's a fun little exchange between Romney and some puny 99-percenter who had the temerity to raise the issue of income inequality. Mitt's a good enough campaigner that I think he'll probably work to lock up this kind of reaction but this definitely echoes his frustrated "corporations are people" outburst. And, it just keeps piling on this issue. Here's hoping for plenty more of it.

Oh Boy, Oh Boy, Oh Boy, Oh Boy!!

ABC News is apparently airing an interview with Newt Gingrich's ex-wife, er, second ex-wife, Marianne, tonight. Here's a sneak peek:



Awesomeness!

Things are getting interesting

Gingrich is up in the polls in SC. Well, a poll.

A CNN/Time/ORC International poll indicates that 33% of likely South Carolina Republican primary voters say they are backing Romney, with 23% supporting Gingrich. The former Massachusetts governor's 10 point advantage over the former House speaker is down from a 19 point lead two weeks ago.

Romney's Taxes

I'm sure that you all saw that Romney was challenged directly at that last GOP debate about his tax returns. It was all kinds of awesome. For details on the exchange, check out the Washington Monthly's post. In short, Romney stumbled his way to the following: 1) he admitted that his effective tax rate last year was about 15 percent, 2) that he will release his 2011 return in April when he files it, and 3) that while most of his income comes from investments and such piled up at Bain, he does get "speaker's fees from time to time, but not very much."

Let's look at those points individually. First, as you can see here, his effective tax rate is equal to that paid by people who make somewhere in the neighborhood of $50,000 to $74,000 a year. I'm not positive but I think most people in that bracket have fewer than Romney's 11 homes.

Second, the timing and depth of his promise is already coming under attack because it's so weak. Check out Matt Lauer's exchange with Chris Christie, who has been a Romney stalwart but seems to have found himself unable to defend this. Bottom line: Romney's promising to release less than other candidates have done and everyone sees through the fact that he's only willing to release them after the GOP primaries are done.

Finally, we come to Romney's "not very much" income gained through speaking fees. Conservatively, Romney made an estimated $362,000 in speaking fees in 2011. Not very much indeed.

This issue definitely has legs and Romney knows it (but not enough to talk about $362,000 without acknowledging that very few Americans make that much in a year). This is going to get better and better.

Mandatory Reading

Can this Andrew Sullivan essay on Obama's 1st term be mandatory reading? Too bad Obama wasn't the monster the Right claims, because then maybe he would make everyone actually read it. But, lot's of people aren't interested in things like, oh, facts and so won't be persuaded. But we will be!

Frustrating Disconnect

A new Pew survey reports that Americans think the divide between rich and poor is the largest source of tension in the country today. Combine that with the fact that the leading GOP contender, Mittens, is himself stinking rich, largely because he ran a cut-throat vulture capitalism fund, openly advocates for huge tax breaks for the wealthy, and says crap like, "it's fine to talk about those things [income inequality] in quiet rooms" and you'd think that Obama would be cruising toward an easy November victory. Yet, Intrade currently gives the Prez a 51% chance of reelection. I trust Barack to run a highly effective campaign and to hammer away at Romney on economics but given the vast differences between their stances I just don't get why he's not already running away with it.

Just Because

This has absolutely nothing to do with politics but is completely awesome and deserves multiple viewings:

Et Tu, Bain Capital?

Mitt "I Like to Fire People" Romney has been telling anyone who'll listen that he helped create 100,000 new jobs during his tenure at Bain Capital. While it's easy to see how they arrived at that number (everyone loves a nice round number) it's hard to sift through all the B.S. to see exactly how the Romney campaign justifies it. At best, they are apparently not counting people laid off by Bain and are counting jobs added after Romney left the firm. The Wall Street Journal editorial staff, ever steadfast in its defense of the GOP, tried to justify that but according to this WaPo blog post, Bain Capital called that analysis hooey, saying that it:

“uses a fundamentally flawed methodology that unfairly assigns responsibility to us for many events that occurred in companies when we did not own or control them, and disregards dozens of successful venture capital investments.”

They appear to be defending themselves against charges that their responsible for bad things that happen to companies after they sell them but in doing so are calling Mitt's numbers into question. Ouch.

You're Fired

I got no small amount of enjoyment yesterday watching the hullabaloo over Romney saying "I like being able to fire people." Most of the commentary focused on how easy it would be to take that out of context. Ah karma.

But over at The Atlantic, James Fallows has a more interesting take on why people may react strongly to Romney's comment, even knowing the context.

But people with any experience on either side of a firing know that, necessary as it might be, it is hard. Or it should be. It's wrenching, it's humiliating, it disrupts families, it creates shame and anger alike -- notwithstanding the fact that often it absolutely has to happen. Anyone not troubled by the process -- well, there is something wrong with that person. We might want such a person to do dirty work for us. (This might be the point where the Romney campaign wants to take another look at Up In The Air.) We might value him or her as a takeover specialist or at a private equity firm. But as someone we trust, as a leader? No - not any more than you can trust a military leader who is not deeply troubled when his troops are killed.

Check out the full piece here. You know. For more context.

Can Romney Lock Up the Nomination Before He Sinks Himself?

By now you've surely all seen Romney's latest gaffe. If I were Romney, I'd like firing people, too. He's made a lot of money doing it. Of course, people are taking his quote out of context but even a generous reading of this shows Romney to be awfully out of touch.

Even so, is there enough time in the nomination calendar for Romney's foot-in-mouth disease to derail him? It will be interesting to see how things go down in New Hampshire today. Nate's latest projections have Romney winning by a good margin but his projected percentage has slipped into the 30s. I, for one, hope that he slips down into the mid-30s with Santorum and Gingrich showing strong enough to press on to SC and FL.

In any case, I guess the most important question is: should we as Obama backers hope that Romney wins and saves a couple of prime gaffes for the general?

Newt on the Attack

As promised, Newt is pursuing a scorched earth campaign against Romney in New Hampshire. One salvo is a 30-minute film and a pro-Newt PAC has produced. Here's the hard-hitting trailer: