Midmorning Update

You'd think that Ilsa's busy getting ready to start a new job or something. Anyhow, a couple quick hits:

Nate has lowered McCain's chances of winning to 3.7%. Sure, polls may be tightening in places (which Nate also said would happen), but they still look really, really good.

At his rally yesterday in Tampa, McCain drew an estimated 1,000 people. Now, that may be a low-ball, but still. As a Republican consultant said, "If you can't round up 1,500 people the day before the election, you've got a serious problem."

Yes, the PA GOP released a Jeremiah Wright ad this weekend, but it may not matter. An NBC/WSJ poll showed that all of McCain's negative attacks have flopped.

Finally, the AP reported yesterday that about 27 million Americans have already voted in 30 states, with Dems doing better in the early voting. As the article says, this has strategists on both sides wondering if even a huge flood of GOP voters tomorrow would be enough to overtake Barack's lead.

Things are looking good, but I still think a real key is going to be convincing people to put up with the long waits to vote. A colleague told me that her sister had to wait for 4 hours yesterday to vote in Ohio. While Ilsa works to getting the poll hours extended, the rest of us will have to get people to take all that time out of their day to cast their votes.