Wow, who woulda ever thought my happy place during a presidential election would fall right smack in the middle of reality.
Complete poll results will be available shortly. Stay tuned.
This just in from Nate:
CBS/NYT Poll Preempt
If Andrew Sullivan is right and the CBS-NYT poll to be released this evening shows a 14-point lead for Obama, we shouldn't actually regard this as all that shocking a result.
Presently, our best estimate is that Obama has about an 8-point national lead. However, CBS polls have leaned about 3 points more Democratic than the average this year. In other words, our baseline expectation is that a CBS poll should be showing about an 11-point for Obama right now.
You wind up to the Obama side of the +/- 3 point margin of error, and that's how you get to 14 points.
Not that this is good news for McCain exactly -- the balance of polling over the past 48 hours indicates that Obama's true lead is probably more like 8 points (maybe even inching upward toward 9) than 6 or 7. But it's not quite as bad as it will look on the surface.
UPDATE:
Here's a link to the poll. Sullivan had it right.
2 comments:
Oh. My. God.
Holy crap is right, and not just because of the precise size of the gap -- the numbers underneath those numbers are even more glee-inducing. In case you didn't have time to read the full report, a few of my favorites...
"Voters who said that their opinions of Mr. Obama had changed recently were twice as likely to say that they had gotten better as to say they had gotten worse. And voters who said that their views of Mr. McCain had changed were three times more likely to say that they had gotten worse than to say they had improved."
"Among independents who are likely voters - a group that has swung back and forth between McCain and Obama over the course of the campaign - the Democratic ticket now leads by 18 points. McCain led among independents last week."
"With more than four out of five of each candidate’s supporters now saying their minds are made up, the poll suggests that McCain faces serious challenges as he looks to close the gap on his Democratic rival in the final three weeks of the campaign."
"Obama holds a more than 20-point edge when it comes to understanding voters' needs and problems, with 64 percent saying Obama does and 43 percent saying McCain does."
My oh my oh my.
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