Morning Roundup--Abbreviated Version

Dave or John, please fill in as needed.

Nate ponders what a tightening race might look like (this typically happens in the week leading up to an election):

"There is a lot of discussion going on about whether the national race is tightening; our model concludes that it is not. But what would meaningful 'tightening' look like in terms of the Electoral College?

Let me be oddly specific here. In order to conclude the Electoral College has tightened to the point where the outcome on November 4 is at least moderately uncertain, I would want to see the following between now and the election. Call it the 2/2/2 condition:

John McCain polling within 2 points in 2 or more non-partisan polls (sorry, Strategic Vision) in at least 2 out of the 3 following states: Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania.

If this condition is met, then I think there could be some drama on Election Night (though by no means would McCain be the favorite). If not, then it's very hard to imagine McCain winning."

Poll: Obama Ahead in Ohio, Way Up On Early Votes
A new SurveyUSA poll gives Barack Obama a 49%-45% lead in Ohio, with a ±3.9% margin of error. The key number from the internals is that 22% of the likely electorate has already voted, and they've gone for Obama by a 56%-39% margin, with the two candidates tied 47%-47% among the remaining 78%.

A new poll has Obama still running ahead in the 6 key red states. Also, an AP article shows a narrowing race in Montana. MONTANA!

Nate analyses the impact of Sen. Stevens conviction on the Alaska race. Simply put, it ain't good.

And for the policy wonks (mostly Bridget), news from DC that Reid is going to gently ease 90-year old Byrd from Chair of Appropriations.