Morning Roundup--Is that frost on the ground?

Well, I'm sorry to report that the heat has kicked on in my condo and it probably won't be going off until about May.

Nate's take on the new polls: yes, McC is improving a bit but he's now just back at where he was two weeks ago (with Obama at +6). Which means not only has he lost two weeks, but he now needs to gain a half a point a day just to become a favorite in the electoral college (for some perspective, at Obama's peak he was only gaining about a quarter a point per day). Nate thinks that just the regular old campaigning won't make this happen, it would have to be some kind of unknown.

Bob Herbert chimes in on the "Acorn scandal", noting that: "the real threat to democracy is the nonstop campaign by the G.O.P. and its supporters to disenfranchise American citizens who have every right to cast a ballot. We saw this in 2000. We saw it in 2004. And we’re seeing it again now."

So much for those whiny PUMA's. Obama now has about the same support of his party as McCain does of the Repugs (86ish%).

The NYT/CBS poll finds significant gains for Obama and not so much for McCain, including: Mr. Obama’s favorability is the highest for a presidential candidate running for a first term in the last 28 years of Times/CBS polls. Mrs. Palin’s negative rating is the highest for a vice-presidential candidate as measured by The Times and CBS News." Meanwhile, WaPo shows Obama still way head, by 9 points, but with McC gaining some ground, particularly with white men.

Obama takes the lead in key counties in Nevada and NC. By a LOT. Both states are still competitive but these counties are large enough to make a difference (including Wake county in NC which includes Raleigh).

Can we all just agree not to listen to the exit polls this year? Concerns that "over-cooperation" by enthusiastic Obama supporters may skew polling.