From Obama's speech in VA yesterday:
"If you'll stand with me, then I know that we can win Virginia and we can win this election and we can finally bring the change we need to Washington," Obama told the estimated crowd of 35,000. "I feel like we got a righteous wind at our backs here."
A new TIME Magazine poll shows Obama continuing to hold the lead in Nevada, OH, VA, and NC. He gained the most ground in NC which shows him ahead by 4 points.
Latest poll results from Nate. Says nothing much has changed, Obama only off his peak numbers from a few weeks ago by about a half a point. Time is running out for McCain to close gaps in many key states.
Chuck Todd wonders what the final two weeks of the McCain campaign will bring since they've got nothing to lose. Commentary on the McCain-Palin interview on NBC.
Larry David can't handle the suspense.
"The one concession I've made to maintain some form of sanity is that I've taken to censoring my news, just like the old Soviet Union. The citizenry (me) only gets to read and listen to what I deem appropriate for its health and well-being. Sure, there are times when the system breaks down. Michele Bachmann got through my radar this week, right before bedtime. That's not supposed to happen. That was a lapse in security, and I've had to make some adjustments."
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arguably 4:23 pm is not a good time to post something to "morning roundup," but it's worth it.
According to some guy named "Nate Silver" (hmmmm), some crazy sheit is going down in Poll-land:
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Shock and Awe in AM Polls
New polling this morning from the Big Ten polling consortium and Quinnipiac University present a view of what the world might look like if Barack Obama wins in a landslide.
The Big Ten polls have Obama ahead by double digits in ten Midwestern states: he leads by 10 in Indiana, 11 in Pennsylvania, 12 in Ohio, 13 in Wisconsin and Iowa, 19 in Minnesota, 22 in Michigan, and 29 in Illinois.
Quinnipiac has Obama ahead by 14 points in Ohio, 13 points in Pennsylvania, and 5 points in Florida.
The thing to recognize about polls like these is that they may tell us less about the individual states and more about where the particular pollsters are calibrating the horse race. The numbers you see in our current state-by-state projections assume that Obama will ultimately prevail on election day by about 5 points.
But what if Obama were to win by 10 or more points instead, where several pollsters now have the race? You'd probably see results which look something like these.
So the best way to regard these numbers is in the same way that you might have regarded the Pew poll from earlier this week, which had Obama at a +14 nationally. If you regarded that number as an outlier -- and I wouldn't blame you one bit if you did -- you should probably regard these numbers as outliers too. If you regarded that number not so much as an outlier but as a best-case scenario -- and that's how I tend to regard it -- you should probably regard these numbers as a best-case scenario also.
With that said, the trendlines in these polls are interesting. Quinnipiac has had a slight (1-2 point) Democratic lean this election cycle, but only in the last month or so have they started to produce some of these "shock and awe" numbers for Obama. And when the first round of Big Ten polling was conducted in mid-September, it had not been particularly favorable to Obama.
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