editor's note: nate silver has some issues with intrade.
Friday, October 3, 2008
Prediction Markets
The prediction markets (like Intrade) have been conservative relative to Nate Silver's forecast. But Obama's stock keeps on drifting up and up. Obama's current price on Intrade is 69.4 (indicating that the market thinks he has a .694 chance of winning), up 4.4 today. His price on the Iowa Electronic Markets is .714. Fivethirtyeight.com has Obama at .838 chance of winning.
editor's note: nate silver has some issues with intrade.
editor's note: nate silver has some issues with intrade.
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1 comment:
very interesting.
btw--nate has some issues with intrade. i'm going to add the link to your post and my comment.
www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/intrade-betting-is-suspcious.html
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