Friday, October 31, 2008
Studs Terkel
ELECTION DAY
(pic taken in charlotte. from amy: since 2004, my neighborhood has this pumpkin wall. the first read KERRY, then TRUTH, then last year 1-20-09 and now OBAMA). check out the words spelled out in the second line of pumpkins. gave me goosebumps even though i've heard it a thousand times)--from Kos. good ideas here, especially for those of you who can't take the day off.
What To Do On Election Day
Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 11:45:04 AM PDT
About a week ago, I received a great email from Northside DFA here in Chicago explaining what you can do on election day. Remember, if you're a student or if you're working, ask to take the day off. I'm taking a couple days off next week, because this election is too important to not leave it all on the road. So make whatever plans you need to make, and let's jump right in:
- Even with early voting, the vast majority of votes will be cast on election day.
- Elections are often decided by two or three votes per polling place.
Volunteers can play a HUGE role in helping a campaign get those last two or three votes that could be the difference between winning or loosing. But how exactly do volunteers do that? Though it varies a bit from campaign to campaign, some of the basic jobs that voluteers can do on election day are:
Poll Watching
If you are a poll watcher you will get credentials (basically an official permission slip) from the campaign that allows you to be in the polling place to observe what is going on. You will watch to see that things are running smoothly and report any problems you notice to the election judges or to the campaign. You may also be asked to mark down on a list who has voted. When someone comes to vote the election judges will call out their name, and you will then mark it down on a list of registered voters provided to you by the campaign. This is then given to the campaign so that later they can remind supporters who haven't voted to vote.Passing
Passers will stand in front of the polling place and hand out a flyer promoting the candidate. In Illinois this must be done at least 100 feet from the entrance to the polling place; the election judges will post cones or some other marker to indicate where that boundary is. In this election many people will be coming primarily to vote for a presidential candidate; your last minute reminder of a congressional, state rep or state senate candidate could inspire them to take an extra minute to vote for that "down-ballot" race.
Phone Banks
Throughout the day the campaign will make phone calls to supporters reminding them to go out and vote. Though it seems hard to believe, there are people who forget that it is election day or who just don't get around to voting. You might also find people who need a ride, or need information about their polling location or need to know the hours of voting. Phone banking is critical!Runners
Runners are doing the same thing that phone bankers are except they are doing it in person. In other words, they are going door to door to supporters and reminding them to vote and if needed they can provide information on the location and hours of the polling place, or can call the campaign office if someone needs a ride to the polls.Drivers
In addition to giving rides to voters, drivers are needed to do various errands throughout the day. One important one you might do is deliver lunch to volunteers! You might also be asked to bring signs to a polling place where they have "dissappeared", or to give a volunteer a ride to the campaign office when they are done with their shift, or deliver more flyers to a volunteer who has run out.Door Hanger Distribution
Prior to the election campaigns will often put a door hanger or flyer on the doors of supporters reminding them to vote. Often this piece will have their name and the location of their polling place on it. Sometimes this is done the weekend before, sometimes it is done the night before or even early in the morning on election day.Pre-election GOTV (Get Out The Vote)
The weekend before the election campaigns will also be reminding their supporters to vote either door to door or by phone, and will need phone bankers and runners to do that. If you can help with this the weekend before your help will be greatly appreciated.Don't think you have time to spare on election day?
- Can you stand at a polling place and pass out flyers for a couple of hours before work?
- Can you leave work early and knock on doors of voters reminding them to vote?
- Can you spend an hour after work making last-minute phone calls to voters?
No excuses, folks. If you can't take off of work, squeeze an hour before or after the workday because in an election this close, every minute and every vote counts. Oh, and if you haven't voted early, don't forget to actually, you know, vote on election day as well!
Mayor Daley says "Screw tickets and come to the Party!"
Mayor Richard Daley on Thursday stoked the celebratory vibe, welcoming people downtown even if they don't have tickets and will have to gather outside the secure area.
Daley has estimated that the throng could reach 1 million. But he said Thursday he had no intention of discouraging attendance.
"You think I'm nuts? You think I'm not going to invite people down? This is a celebration," Daley said. "No way I'm going to tell people they should not come down and celebrate."
Sassy Goes Global!
I wish to say that the experience of following the elections through your blog is just great!!!
I can feel the excitement in every post!!
Well, I just wanted to let you know that you've got a reader south of the equator and that a lot of my brazilian friends are very excited with what is happening in this US election.
I know that you are working hard to get Obama elected and I hope you understand that the real work will need to be done after he steps in the White House.
I believe Obama will need to feel the popular support in order make the changes the US needs. He will be faced with a lot of pressure not only from the republicans, but also from democrats at the Senate and the House.
You've got to keep this "election excitement" (sorry for the McCain air quotes) for the next 4 years at least or Obama will be dragged into the same old formulas of the same old politics.
He can't do this alone. He needs you guys and all his supporters to keep doing this great work. Keep blogging, keep posting great youtube videos, keep rallying and keep up the good spirit!
There's a lot to be done in the next 4 days, so boost your energy levels and make this happen!!!
A lot of positive energy from you friend in Brazil,
Marcelo Michelsohn
Question?
Thought so (interview followed by exclusive, great new song):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MqBnMjII6X0
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3XHusLu7SU
and some of us are creeped out by how the dude in Wilco in the red shirt looks like some of us.
Morning Roundup
Race a dead heat in Mo and NC? Other than this post, I'm not gonna cover the polls this morning. Between Dave and I yesterday, we pretty much got you the story. Nothing has really changed this morning--McCain has moved up a bit but not enough to make a difference this close to the election.
McCain is going to appear on SNL tomorrow night. I guess that means I won't be tuning in.
You know how I feel about newspaper endorsements (not relevant) but I still find this revealing:
"At least 47 papers -- the most recent, the Cape Cod Times -- have now switched to Obama from Bush in 2004, with just four flipping to McCain (see separate story on our site). In addition, several top papers that went for Bush in 2004 have now chosen not to endorse this year, the latest being the Indianapolis Star in key swing state Indiana."
I haven't blogged about this yet, but McCain and Palin are still up to their dirty tricks trying to defame the reputation of a Columbia professor by calling him a neo-nazi and tying him to Obama. For the record, this guy does hold some controversial views, but so does Todd Palin. From today's WaPo which totally goes after them for this in an op-ed.
"In the past couple of days, Mr. McCain and his running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin, have likened Mr. Khalidi, the director of a Middle East institute at Columbia University, to neo-Nazis; called him "a PLO spokesman"; and suggested that the Los Angeles Times is hiding something sinister by refusing to release a videotape of a 2003 dinner in honor of Mr. Khalidi at which Mr. Obama spoke. Mr. McCain even threw former Weatherman Bill Ayers into the mix, suggesting that the tape might reveal that Mr. Ayers -- a terrorist-turned-professor who also has been an Obama acquaintance -- was at the dinner.
Our sense is that Mr. Obama is a man of considerable intellectual curiosity who can hear out a smart, if militant, advocate for the Palestinians without compromising his own position. To suggest, as Mr. McCain has, that there is something reprehensible about associating with Mr. Khalidi is itself condemnable -- especially during a campaign in which Arab ancestry has been the subject of insults.
We did ask Mr. Khalidi whether he wanted to respond to the campaign charges against him. He answered, via e-mail, that "I will stick to my policy of letting this idiot wind blow over." That's good advice for anyone still listening to the McCain campaign's increasingly reckless ad hominem attacks. Sadly, that wind is likely to keep blowing for four more days."
Thursday, October 30, 2008
The Polls and Such
That said, I'm watching Rachel Maddow right now and she's reporting about more voter suppression efforts in Colorado and voting machines in West Virginia flipping votes for Barack to McCain. Of course, in both states, the Secretary of State is Republican. Considering everything that's happened in every major election since 2000, it seems safe to assume that the GOP is again trying to monkey with the vote. Disgusting.
Of course, the most nefarious schemes can't alter the enthusiasm gap. As I'm sure you saw today, McCain not only can't even get Joe the Plumber to show up at his rallies, but his campaign had to bus in 4,000 schoolkids to get his audience up to 6,000 attendees.
Obama recruiting volunteers in ARIZONA and other good news
More good news about the early vote counts in swing states. NC keep polls open later to keep pace with demand. More specifics on early voting here.
Nate maps out a path for McCain to pull out a win. I would have posted this earlier in the week, but Sassy has been busy getting herself a real job.
Those annoying, ambivalent, news-hungry undecideds are unlikely to break decisively for one candidate at this late date (ps this is good news for Obama).
NH McCain leadership bails ship and endorses Obama. Live Free or Die!
Barack Informercial a big hit
from CNN
The major networks may just wish Barack Obama took up more airtime after taking a look at the ratings for the Democratic presidential candidate's 30-minute infomercial Wednesday night.
According to preliminary ratings numbers from the networks, more than 26 million people watched the program on CBS, NBC or Fox. That's 3 million more than usually watch those networks at that hour, according to the Hollywood Reporter. Averaging in the cable networks that also carried the event, about 30 million people in all saw the long-form campaign ad.
The ad was most watched on NBC, where nearly 10 million viewers tuned in. More than 8.5 million watched on CBS while just under 8 million viewed the program on Fox. On average, about 7 million people usually tune into each network at that hour.
Overall, according to Nielsen, for the six networks that aired the infomercial simultaneously, it scored a household rating of nearly 22 percent — meaning 22 percent of all households watching television at that hour tuned into the spot. That compares to the 38.3 household rating the last presidential debate scored.
Obama's combined audience beat the highest rated television show last week: CBS' CSI drew about 20 million viewers. It also drew more than double the viewers the average World Series game this year did.
But even if viewers didn't catch the spot when it first aired, clips of the program have repeatedly been broadcast across the cable news chanels Thursday, maximizing the Illinois senator's exposure in the crucial remaining days before Election Day.
"The strategic brilliance of this for Obama is that he is going to consume about 24 hours of the news cycle," Evan Tracey of Campaign Media Analysis Group said. "It boxes [John] McCain in, takes the oxygen out of the room."
It's unclear exactly how much the Obama campaign spent on the commercial in total, but estimates put the cost at least $3.5 million.
Morning Roundup
The AP is calling the election for Obama barring some huge change in voter intention.
One hot chick wanted to take Chicago guy to Obama rally.
Obama widens his lead in NC and NV accdg to a new Time poll.
Bill and Barack take the stage together for the first time.
Only a hint of narrowing in the polls, but I still don't like it.
I keep forgetting Bush is still president but then he pulls a stupid stunt like this. Luckily he's being rebuffed by his own department.
Oh, and one more thing, from the city of brotherly love.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Dear Sassy Readers
So I am begging all of you, everywhere, to please try and donate some time to help this amazing man (who has busted his butt the last two years for all of us) become our next president. You can still make phone calls to battleground states (that can take as little as 30 minutes of your time), consider heading to a battleground state this weekend for GOTV (if you're in Chicago, you can go as close as Hammond, IN (like an hour away), and do one shift (3-4 hours), or volunteer on Tuesday. Or just implore your friends, families, co-workers to VOTE. We have to get everyone out to vote on Tuesday--we don't just want a squeaker here, we want to give Obama a big win so he has a mandate as president to make things happen. Otherwise, we're still a nation of blue and red states. We must change that paradigm
As the campaign said today, John McCain's quest for the presidency ends in Indiana. You can help make that happen.
It's been a long, dark eight years. I know many of you have struggled with Bush's presidency--what it says about the American people, the heartbreak of the Iraq invasion, the slow implosion of our economy. But it's almost over and I'm planning on waking up Wednesday morning with a big smile on my face and a lot of love in my heart.
Sassy Out.
Millions Expected Downtown
Good afternoon,
Downtown buildings have been notified by the City of Chicago that crowds in the millions are expected downtown for the Grant Park rally for Senator Obama and many other rallies and parties on Election Day, Tuesday, November 4, 2008. Various government offices have suggested that employers notify all employees of the possibility of evening commute issues; the need for additional security at the building; to ask that any non-essential deliveries be postponed; and have even suggested that downtown employers shorten the work day, if possible, to allow for employees to leave the downtown area in case of any potential danger associated with the large crowds. Zeller Realty Group will be increasing the security presence at 500 North Michigan Avenue beginning at 3:00 p.m. and will be very closely monitoring anyone entering the building, including delivery drivers.
Please be sure to carry your after-hours key card with you if you plan to enter the building anytime after 5:00 p.m. And please notify the Office of the Building if you intend to close your business early on this day. Any deliveries should be scheduled, as usual, through the Office of the Building as well.
If you plan to participate in any rallies or celebrations on this evening, please stay safe and aware of your surroundings. Events such as these, that involve large crowds, are a perfect opportunity for pickpockets and thieves to strike.
As always, if you have any questions or need any additional information, do not hesitate to contact the Office of the Building at any time.
Bonnie
Bonnie Boden
Property Manager
Morning Roundup
Yes, as expected the national trackers are tightening (even Kos's daily poll now only shows a 6 point spread, it had been more than 10 a week ago) which is giving me kind of a queasy feeling. And no one likes queasy sassy! But, as Nate says, the state numbers are still way in Obama's favor and that's really all that matters. Then why do the damn national polls!!!!
On that point, WaPo has a good article today on the accuracy of the big polls, particularly going after the McCain campaigns assumption that the race is tighter than it is being reflected in the polls b/c most of the undecideds are white and leaning R. Not so fast, says Nate, provided that were true (and it very well could be) it would only give McCain at most one point (and Nate was being generous).
More interesting stuff about early voting. "More than twelve million voters have already cast ballots in the presidential contest, according to one estimate, and new data from the Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll shows these voters breaking Democratic by a wide margin."
Arizona is a toss-up! McCain's up by 2 points. Day-umm.
And early voters numbers are still making me happy. From Gallup
The voter preferences of the group of 1,430 individuals who have already voted and who were interviewed by Gallup between Oct. 17 and Oct. 27 show a 53% to 43% Obama over McCain tilt.
Among the group of those who say they have not yet voted, but will
before Election Day, the skew towards Obama is more pronounced, at 54%
to 40%. By comparison, those who are going to wait to vote on Nov. 4
manifest a narrower 50% to 44% Obama over McCain candidate preference.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
We shouldn't be surprised...
Morning Roundup--Abbreviated Version
Nate ponders what a tightening race might look like (this typically happens in the week leading up to an election):
"There is a lot of discussion going on about whether the national race is tightening; our model concludes that it is not. But what would meaningful 'tightening' look like in terms of the Electoral College?
Let me be oddly specific here. In order to conclude the Electoral College has tightened to the point where the outcome on November 4 is at least moderately uncertain, I would want to see the following between now and the election. Call it the 2/2/2 condition:
John McCain polling within 2 points in 2 or more non-partisan polls (sorry, Strategic Vision) in at least 2 out of the 3 following states: Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania.
If this condition is met, then I think there could be some drama on Election Night (though by no means would McCain be the favorite). If not, then it's very hard to imagine McCain winning."
Poll: Obama Ahead in Ohio, Way Up On Early Votes
A new SurveyUSA poll gives Barack Obama a 49%-45% lead in Ohio, with a ±3.9% margin of error. The key number from the internals is that 22% of the likely electorate has already voted, and they've gone for Obama by a 56%-39% margin, with the two candidates tied 47%-47% among the remaining 78%.
A new poll has Obama still running ahead in the 6 key red states. Also, an AP article shows a narrowing race in Montana. MONTANA!
Nate analyses the impact of Sen. Stevens conviction on the Alaska race. Simply put, it ain't good.
And for the policy wonks (mostly Bridget), news from DC that Reid is going to gently ease 90-year old Byrd from Chair of Appropriations.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Feds disrupt skinhead plot to kill Obama
Wassup!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qq8Uc5BFogE
Ted Stevens guilty!
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens has been convicted of lying about free home renovations and other gifts he received from a wealthy oil contractor.
The Senate's longest-serving Republican, Stevens was found guilty on all seven counts of making false statements on Senate financial documents.
The verdict throws the upcoming election into disarray. Stevens is fighting off a challenge from Democrat Mark Begich and must now either drop out or continue campaigning as a convicted felon.
The trial hinged on the testimony of Stevens' longtime friend, who testified that his employees dramatically remodeled the senator's home.
Stevens faces up to five years in prison on each count but, under federal sentencing guidelines, will likely receive much less prison time, if any.
Morning Roundup a little late--Sassy's been busy!
"If the balance of today's national polls contain better news for McCain, the balance of the state polls show Obama continuing to perform very well in several swing states. Obama now has 15-point lead in New Hampshire according to the Boston Globe / UNH poll, which had generally contained good news for McCain earlier in this cycle. PPP puts Obama up by 9 in Virginia, while two new polls also show him with significant leads in Iowa.
Counteracting the Obama trend sightly are new polls in Wisconsin and Missouri, which show somewhat better numbers for McCain than other recent polls of those states. However, that is not enough to prevent McCain's win percentage from drifting downward to 3.3 percent."
More comforting polling analysis from Rasmussen:
Today is the 31st straight day that Obama’s voter support has stayed between 50% and 52%. During that period, the number voting for McCain has stayed in the 44% to 46% range every day and the gap between the candidates has ranged from four to eight percentage points.
However, while the overall levels of support have remained stable, voters have become more certain of their intent. Today, the percentage who say they could still change their mind is down to single digits. Forty-eight percent (48%) are now certain they will vote for Obama while 39% say the same about McCain. One month ago, while Obama enjoyed a five-point lead overall, just 41% of voters were certain they would vote for him. At that time, 39% said the same about McCain (see other recent demographic highlights and trends).
Meanwhile, an Arizona poll for the Democratic strategy firm Project New West shows John McCain ahead by just 4 points there, and a couple of other polls showing a close race in McCain's home state are apparently on the way. In terms of our model, the principal effect of the Arizona polls is really not on the Grand Canyon State itself, where our model remains skeptical of an Obama upset, but rather in terms of its neighbor New Mexico, where our it is now (even) more optimistic about Obama's chances.
Nate also debunks the premise behind an article on Salon about the Bradley effect in the 2006 elections. Basically, the writer (a Repug, sooprize sooprize) cherry-picked the polls he used to make his point that several black candidates lost by larger margins than predicted.
Voter turnout in one county in Florida spurs talk of an upset Obama win.
An interesting article by the NY bureau chief for WaPo about how the rise of Obama is still only an American story.
Obama to give his "closing" speech today in Ohio which will include themes of hope, unity etc. McCain to continue talking trash and generally bitching and moaning.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Sunday Morning Roundup
Interesting new article in WaPo today by David Frum ( a conservative) about how Repugs need to cede the presidential election and just focus on the Senate races. What I find particularly hilarious is that his big fear about a single-party government is that, essentially, Ds will start behaving like Rs.
"Second, the political culture of the Democratic Party has changed over the past decade. There's a fierce new anger among many liberal Democrats, a more militant style and an angry intolerance of dissent and criticism. This is the culture of the left-wing blogosphere and MSNBC's evening line-up -- and soon, it will be the culture of important political institutions in Washington. Unchecked, this angry new wing of the Democratic Party will seek to stifle opposition by changing the rules of the political game. Some will want to silence conservative talk radio by tightening regulation of the airwaves via the misleadingly named "fairness doctrine"; others may seek to police the activities of right-leaning think tanks by a stricter interpretation of what is tax-deductible and what is not. "
MSNBC might be squarely on the Left, but at least they're not using race-baiting tactics to scare their viewers. Any left-wing media (if it actually even exists) is pretty harmless. The right is another story.
Further, Mark Levin at the National Review is just shocked, shocked that anyone with a brain could vote for Barack. Must be the "cult-like atmosphere" the Obama campaign has created with all the young-ins marching in lock-step and the country headed towards socialism.
"There is a cult-like atmosphere around Barack Obama, which his campaign has carefully and successfully fabricated, which concerns me. The messiah complex. Fainting audience members at rallies. Special Obama flags and an Obama presidential seal. A graphic with the portrayal of the globe and Obama's name on it, which adorns everything from Obama's plane to his street literature. Young school children singing songs praising Obama. Teenagers wearing camouflage outfits and marching in military order chanting Obama's name and the professions he is going to open to them. An Obama world tour, culminating in a speech in Berlin where Obama proclaims we are all citizens of the world. I dare say, this is ominous stuff."
Seriously?
In case you missed it, Nate challenged pollsters earlier in the week to prove that their likely voter models weren't suspect. So far, only one has responded. This is the kind of transparent debate we should have around, not just the technical issues of the campaign, but also policy debates. Oh, but according to David Frum, all the left-wing blogosphere wants is to censor and contain. In fact, it seems to be the opposite. All the Ds want is an atmosphere of openness, fair fighting, and hey maybe a little bit of humanity thrown in. Plus now we have super-smart people (like Nate and Kos) on our side. I, for one, find them to be much better advocates for what the party stands for than, say, Karl Rove or Sarah Palin does for the Rs.
Amazingly, Nate's analysis of the polls now revolves around whether Barack can break 400 in the electoral college. That just blows. my. mind. That's called a mandate, my friends.
Looks like the McCain-Palin campaign is going to spend the next week badmouthing-- each other. Great! take your nasty ol lies and mean ol right wing craziness and turn the hate right back onto yourselves. We don't want it and you deserve it.
The Anchorage Daily News (Alaska's largest newspaper) endorses Obama. Nuff said.
Doesn't matter, cuz Johnny Mac just guaranteed an election night squeaker win for the Repugs.
Friday, October 24, 2008
McCain Aide pushed "Barack" mutilation hoax and more fun stuff for the Friday Update
According to TPM, McCain campaign spread hoax of volunteer attack and embellished facts.
"John McCain's Pennsylvania communications director told reporters in the state an incendiary version of the hoax story about the attack on a McCain volunteer well before the facts of the case were known or established -- and even told reporters outright that the "B" carved into the victim's cheek stood for "Barack," according to multiple sources familiar with the discussions."
James Carville on Joe the Plumber: The reason Republicans are happy about Joe the Plumber is they're glad they got somebody hanging around a toilet other than Larry Craig.
This should make the voter protection work I signed up for really interesting:
"A Republican county election clerk in in Indiana thought it would be a good joke to give out copies of a blog post calling Obama a "young, black Adolf Hitler." The Republican Chair from the county said that the incident "taints" the clerk's "ability to appear unbiased."
Todd: Dems "Have Already Done Twice as Better"
And, yes, I know I'm unleashing a barrage of posts today. Let's just say that I'm having a hard time focusing on my actual job because of the flood of interesting political developments today.
GOP Campaign Worker Admits to Making Up Attack Story
Too Good to Be True
Morning Roundup
An interesting factoid from yesterday's ABC/WaPo tracker: In those crucial states decided by five or fewer points in 2004, Obama is up 21 points.
A new SurveyUSA poll gives Barack Obama a 49%-45% in Indiana, with a ±4% margin of error, compared to a 48%-45% McCain lead from three weeks ago. The most recent three polls of this race now give Obama the lead in a state that hasn't gone Democratic since the 1964 LBJ landslide.
Sooprize, sooprize, the NYT endorses Barack Obama.
"It will be an enormous challenge just to get the nation back to where it was before Mr. Bush, to begin to mend its image in the world and to restore its self-confidence and its self-respect. Doing all of that, and leading America forward, will require strength of will, character and intellect, sober judgment and a cool, steady hand.
Mr. Obama has those qualities in abundance. Watching him being tested in the campaign has long since erased the reservations that led us to endorse Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Democratic primaries. He has drawn in legions of new voters with powerful messages of hope and possibility and calls for shared sacrifice and social responsibility."From a recent poll of rural areas, which George Bush won by 15 points in '04:
A poll of rural voters in battleground states shows that this critical group of voters moved toward Democrat Barack Obama during a three-week period in October.
The Center for Rural Strategies poll, commissioned on behalf of the National Rural Assembly, sampled rural voters in 13 swing states from Oct. 1-21. During these three weeks the poll found that Obama led McCain 46 to 45 percent, which is within the poll's 3.38 percent margin of error.
Democrat analyst and pollster Anna Greenberg of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research said that the poll shows erosion in Republican support among rural voters and that this is a good sign for Obama.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Nate Silver: "McCain on Life Support"
Pennsylvania: 99% (same as McCain winning Louisiana)
Virginia: 95%
New Mexico: 94%
Colorado: 93%
Ohio: 83%
Florida: 77%
Nevada: 71%
Missouri: 69%
North Carolina: 69%
Indiana: 68%
All this gives Obama better than even odds (54.3%) at a landslide (> 375 electoral votes). Wow!
Afternoon Tidbits
The whole $150K for clothes saga got murkier today as the NY Times reported that the declared transactions don't add up. Some of the shop owners couldn't find transactions that matched the amounts reported. Furthermore, the men's clothing store, Atelier, seems to focus on trendy, edgy stuff that would be inappropriate on the campaign trail. Unless the First Dude is hitting the club scene, it sounds like the Repugs were either trying to hide shady expenses under the clothing line item or some other Repugs were buying clothes for personal use and charging it to the Palin account.
McCain again said that cities are fake. This time, though, he went so far as to criticize the Georgetown cocktail party scene, of which he has been an avid member for years.
There are some cool commercials airing against the California ballot measure to ban gay marriage.
Oh, and Obama's lead continues to grow in TPM's composite of the national polls.
But, all's not rosy as apparently Mayor Daley doesn't want Barack to use Grant Park on Nov. 4, and the last time a Mayor Daley didn't want people to mass in Grant Park, it didn't end well.
Shaming Nonvoters
You may have already seen this, but MoveOn has a new web ad that you can customize to shame nonvoters. It's hilarious. And, if you know anyone likely not to vote, I highly recommend watching the one I made and customizing it for your friend(s)/loved one(s).
The Republican defections continue
Morning Roundup
"If you'll stand with me, then I know that we can win Virginia and we can win this election and we can finally bring the change we need to Washington," Obama told the estimated crowd of 35,000. "I feel like we got a righteous wind at our backs here."
A new TIME Magazine poll shows Obama continuing to hold the lead in Nevada, OH, VA, and NC. He gained the most ground in NC which shows him ahead by 4 points.
Latest poll results from Nate. Says nothing much has changed, Obama only off his peak numbers from a few weeks ago by about a half a point. Time is running out for McCain to close gaps in many key states.
Chuck Todd wonders what the final two weeks of the McCain campaign will bring since they've got nothing to lose. Commentary on the McCain-Palin interview on NBC.
Larry David can't handle the suspense.
"The one concession I've made to maintain some form of sanity is that I've taken to censoring my news, just like the old Soviet Union. The citizenry (me) only gets to read and listen to what I deem appropriate for its health and well-being. Sure, there are times when the system breaks down. Michele Bachmann got through my radar this week, right before bedtime. That's not supposed to happen. That was a lapse in security, and I've had to make some adjustments."
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Afternoon Campaign Craziness
- McCain picks up the al Qaeda endorsement. Naturally, his campaign is freaking.
- In an interview with Don Imus, McCain said: "I think she's the most qualified of anyone recently who has run for vice president to tell you the truth." Cheney, Lieberman, Gore? Lightweights compared to Sarah!
- Meanwhile, Ms. Qualified told James Dobson that McCain whole-heartedly supports the GOP party platform--including constitutional amendments banning all abortion and gay marriage. This does not jive with McCain's previously stated positions.
- There was an anthrax scare at the New York Times today. And, I heard this morning on WGN news that there have been anthrax scares at 30 Chase Banks.
- Gallup says 10% of registered voters have already voted early. Considering that not all registered voters end up making it to the polls, the early voters make up more than 10% of the people who will vote in this election. Word has it, Barack's doing well with the early voters, so this is huge.
I'm sure I missed something. It's been a crazy day--and I'm sure it'll be like this for the next two weeks.
Morning Roundup from Fake America
Nate explains McCain's recent inching up in the polls as a dead cat bounce (have I told Nate I love him today?). Obama is now ahead by double digits in many polls (14 points in the Pew poll!); pulling ahead in the final stretch. For all you polling geeks (and I mean you, Dave) Nate posted a primer on the 8 daily polls.
Charlie Cook, Bridget's man in Washington (and who doesn't love a guy with a bowl cut hair piece?), and a very well respected pollster says it's no longer a question of whether Barack will win but by how much. He makes a persuasive argument here including that with early voting so widespread, and leaning heavily towards Barack, it makes a comeback that much harder for McCain since his pool of voters gets smaller every day. And how does all this good news make Democrats feel? Doomed.
Barack may appear on SNL on November 1st which will surely piss. McCain. off. since it's right before the election. Barack was supposed to appear on the first new episode in September but couldn't b/c of Hurricane Ike, probably can't appear this weekend because he's going home to visit his grandma (who Sassy is praying she gets to see the day her grandson becomes president. As John said, COME ON, can't the universe just make this happen?). Speaking of "suspending his campaign" for his sick grandma, word on the street is the McC is fuming that Obama gets to do this and everyone is sympathetic to him (instead of disgusted, like when McC did it last month). 236.com imagines other opportunities for Obama to take McCain's wrongs and show him how to do it right:
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
It's Official: Grant Park on Nov. 4
Yet More Blowback from McCain Attack
Washington Monthly has my favorite take on this. They note that McCain has launched several attacks, only to have it later revealed that they apply to him as well. It's worth running down the list:
- Barack's inexperienced...now, meet Sarah Palin
- Barack's a celebrity...but pay no attention to my fame and Hollywood fundraisers
- Barack's an elitist...how many houses do I own again?
- Barack has scandalous associations with Fannie and Freddie...Rick Davis made how much lobbying for Fannie Mae?
- Barack voted against funding the troops...of course, I did too, but I had a really good reason
- Barack hangs out with terrorists...I'm proud of my association with G. Gordon Libby
- Barack's fundraising is fishy...wait, we sent a letter to a Russian ambassador?
- (Still to come) Barack's former pastor hates America...please don't show clips of me going on my hands and knees to Reverend Hagee
This doesn't even cover his major talking points which have also been undermined (e.g., I'll stop abuses of power...like those of Alaska's governor). But, the really key point is that McCain has been all over the place looking for something to stick. Nothing has. Meanwhile, Barack has been consistent with his message for 20 months and is reaping the benefits.
Morning Roundup--Is that frost on the ground?
Nate's take on the new polls: yes, McC is improving a bit but he's now just back at where he was two weeks ago (with Obama at +6). Which means not only has he lost two weeks, but he now needs to gain a half a point a day just to become a favorite in the electoral college (for some perspective, at Obama's peak he was only gaining about a quarter a point per day). Nate thinks that just the regular old campaigning won't make this happen, it would have to be some kind of unknown.
Bob Herbert chimes in on the "Acorn scandal", noting that: "the real threat to democracy is the nonstop campaign by the G.O.P. and its supporters to disenfranchise American citizens who have every right to cast a ballot. We saw this in 2000. We saw it in 2004. And we’re seeing it again now."
So much for those whiny PUMA's. Obama now has about the same support of his party as McCain does of the Repugs (86ish%).
The NYT/CBS poll finds significant gains for Obama and not so much for McCain, including: Mr. Obama’s favorability is the highest for a presidential candidate running for a first term in the last 28 years of Times/CBS polls. Mrs. Palin’s negative rating is the highest for a vice-presidential candidate as measured by The Times and CBS News." Meanwhile, WaPo shows Obama still way head, by 9 points, but with McC gaining some ground, particularly with white men.
Obama takes the lead in key counties in Nevada and NC. By a LOT. Both states are still competitive but these counties are large enough to make a difference (including Wake county in NC which includes Raleigh).
Can we all just agree not to listen to the exit polls this year? Concerns that "over-cooperation" by enthusiastic Obama supporters may skew polling.
Monday, October 20, 2008
Evening Roundup--15 Days to go People!!
A new CNN poll shows that over 60% of voters think McCain has unfairly attacked Obama (up from 42 percent in September and much higher than the 39% who think Obama is unfairly attacking McC). This polls also found, very significantly, the poll showed that 47% think Obama would make the stronger leader with only 44% thinking McCain would be (that number is down from 60% in September--a huge drop).
Palin lies like a rug (as Andrew Sullivan says, she may be a better liar than even Clinton).
Alec Baldwin writes about Palin's appearance on SNL.
More good news on early voter turnout. A reader on Andrew Sullivan's site writes:
I work at a Florida county library where they're holding the two-week Early Voting, and we've had a long line of voters from opening until now, close to six hours. Our sliding doors have been propped open. At one point it went out into the parking lot, about 80-90 people deep.
We've been tempted to go out to the line and say, "Guys, you can do this over the next two weeks! There's no real rush!" Deal is, we've never seen lines like this before, definitely not for the actual election days in November... We're guessing this year's election is going to see massive turnouts.
Afternoon Round Up
Also, there is irony: on the day that the McCain campaign alleged that Obama must have broken laws to raise $150 million in September, it was revealed that they sent a solicitation for donations to Russian ambassador to the UN. Sure, it was probably a mistake, but soliciting from foreigners is illegal.
But, my favorite thing from today was this analysis of how awesome the Obama approach has been. In a nutshell, they have a message and an approach they've stuck with throughout, while McCain's flailing like an idiot. Good stuff.
Powell on Taxes
Mr. Obama is now a socialist, because he dares to suggest that maybe we ought to look at the tax structure that we have. Taxes are always a redistribution of money. Most of the taxes that are redistributed go back to those who pay them, in roads and airports and hospitals and schools. And taxes are necessary for the common good. And there's nothing wrong with examining what our tax structure is or who should be paying more or who should be paying less, and for us to say that makes you a socialist is an unfortunate characterization that isn't accurate.
Oh, please campaign for Barack.
Couple Things
Second, in an ABC/WaPo poll, 60% of respondents said that the Ayers issue is not a legitimate factor.
Finally, my beloved Red Sox lost game 7 to the admittedly exciting Rays last night. But, that means I can focus even more attention on the campaign.
Morning Roundup--Sassy bats a Thousand!
A boy waves an American flag during a rally by US Democratic presidential candidate Illinois Senator Barack Obama at the Crown Center Coliseum in Fayetteville, North Carolina, October 19, 2008.NYT publishes a long article on the candidates' health. Surprisingly, none of the candidates were that forthcoming with their health records. The biggest concern, obviously, being McCain's bouts with cancer (and most of the article is dedicated to him) but, and perhaps more annoying, Palin never submitted any medical records. Why does she get away with this sh**? Anyway, good timing if this is picked up in other venues since people seem to be most concerned about Palin's ability to govern should McCain die in office.
Beloved Steeler's owner Dan Rooney is campaigning for Obama. Hopefully that'll bring us some votes in western PA.
Nate scratches WV from the tossup column and gives it to McC for now. A few tidbits from his Sunday poll update: all but one of the national polls have Obama 5 -7 pts ahead and Nate gives him a 90% chance of winning all the Kerry states from '04.
Howard Kurtz in WaPo on whether the media is driving Obama's victory narrative. Great quote from Chuck Todd:
NBC's political map has Obama at 264 electoral votes, just short of the required 270. Political director Chuck Todd told viewers that Obama is "one state away" and says he doesn't see how McCain can catch up.
"I think we have to be responsible," says Todd, adding that he won't hesitate to put Obama over 270 if his analysis supports it. "It'd be worse if somehow we were withholding it. That's crazy too. It looks like you're trying to create drama."
Finally, Congrats to Sassy! In the 3 weeks since we started tracking the number of visitors to the site we've hit a thousand. Unbelievable!!! This is not the number of actual visitors, just the number of visits. We have about 30 regular visitors/day from 10 states and two countries. I don't even know who all of you are! Like, who the hell is reading Sassy in Arizona?!!?? Anyway, it's pretty cool and I'm kind of obsessed with the google tracking function.
Trading update
- 80.3 (last: 78.8) for Colorado,
- 68 (last: 65) for Florida,
- 36 (last 42) for Indiana,
- 87 (last: not on list) for Iowa,
- 93.5 (last: 92) for Michigan,
- 91.6 (last: 84) for Minnesota,
- 74.5 (last: 47.6) for Missouri,
- 76.5 (last: 72.9) for Nevada,
- 89.3 (last: 78.7) for New Hampshire,
- 87.3 (last: 81.7) for New Mexico,
- 58.5 (last: 56) for North Carolina,
- 68.5 (last: 71) for Ohio,
- 88 (last: 84) for Pennsylvania,
- 81 (last: 68) for Virginia,
- 23 (last: 42) for West Virginia, and
- 92 (last: 87) for Wisconsin.
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Coolest. Pregnant Woman. Ever.
Weekend Update
Colin Powell endorses Barack (see previous post).
National polls continue to tighten a bit. Nate attributes this to an increase in Republican enthusiasm (from Joe the Plumber, "I'm not George Bush" statements) but not that McCain is persuading any Independents or Dems to vote for him. It still kinda blows my mind that Obama is not farther ahead in the polls.
The Miami Herald endorses Barack, but the Tampa Trib endorses McCain. The Philadelphia Inquirer couldn't quite make up its mind, which is total BS. The Houston Chronicle endorses its first Democrat since '64. And the Denver Post and the Salt Lake Tribune--both supported Bush in 04, are endorsing Barack. It feels like a tidal wave, right?
One more time, though, we can expect some really nasty shit for the next two weeks. Josh from TPM lays it out pretty bluntly, McCain is going to go after Barack with a key message:"Don't forget. He's definitely black. And he may be a terrorist." I think the closer we get to November 4th, the more McCain will try to play up voter's fears.
Everyone who is out there pounding the pavement for Barack, making phone calls, sending in money, going to concerts. Keep it up, you're doing GREAT WORK. It ain't over til Sassy is sitting on the lawn in Grant Park (in her puffy coat with gloves and long underwear) screaming her lungs out during Obama's victory speech.
Obama Raises $150 M in September
More from Sassy in Charlotte:
James Taylor is playing 5 free concerts in his home state of NC to gin up support for Barack. Attending from the Flanagan/Ingalls clans: Grammie Joan, Aunt Katie (Momma Sassy), Aunt Erin, Amy, Renny and Patrick. We'll be getting a full report later. Hopefully Renny won't get into a knock-down with any of the Conservative Kids For McCain.
Colin Powell Endorses Obama!!
"He has both style and substance. I think he is a transformational figure," Powell said on NBC's "Meet the Press."
Saturday, October 18, 2008
100,000 come out to see Obama
a new record in presidential campaigns. who says this guy's popularity is stalling out? nowhere to go but up, my friends.
Taxes
But this little tidbit is my favorite. Joe the Plumber admitted yesterday that he'd benefit more from Barack's tax plan.
Now, I'm off to vote!
UPDATE: The early voting site was packed! They had 10 machines going and a decent-sized line waiting for them to open up. Very cool, and well worth the wait to cast my vote.
Morning Roundup--Some stuff to report, not a lot
Poll watching from Nate. No notable movement right now.
"In Chuck Todd we trust; all others must bring data. And right now, we're in something of a holding pattern, waiting to see the next turn in the race. Obama's momentum has possibly stalled out, but has probably yet begun to reverse itself. It's also possible that Obama's momentum was on the verge of reversing itself before Wednesday night's debate, but that the debate was enough to hold McCain off or perhaps even shift things further in Obama's direction. Furthermore, it's possible that the numbers will simply flatline until November 4 as Obama runs out McCain's clock (with no more major events on the campaign calendar, this may in fact be the most likely possibility). We will probably know a lot more about this race by Sunday or Monday, once the impacts of the debate are fully accounted for."
House races expected to go easily R are now being moved the D column by the Cook Report. From Kos:
The tsunami cometh, and that right soon.
With two weeks to go, the Cook Political Report - one of the very best sources of political analysis in the business, particularly in analyzing House races - has made a major shift in their House ratings, moving 25 races ratings in one fell swoop.
All of this movement favors Democrats.
Cook acknowledges that the political climate is ripe for a major Democratic wave:
For House Republicans, already dark days are getting darker. Movement in Congressional races tends to accelerate in mid-October, and with the exception of Rep. Tim Mahoney’s district (FL-16), every district on the move is headed in Democrats’ direction. Heavy Democratic spending and the GOP’s cash shortfall are taking its toll on Republican candidates in districts that the committees have targeted all cycle long. But the state of the economy and the presidential race are exposing weak GOP polling numbers even in seats neither party had given much thought.
Cook's current projection is that Democrats will gain 20-25 seats in the House.
Sarah Palin is expected to be on SNL tonight with Tina Fey.
I don't typically put too much credence on newspaper endorsements but this year may be a little different. The Tribune's endorsement, in particular, felt so monumental. Comparing Barack to Abe Lincoln? Finally we're a part of history in the making that we can be proud of. And plus there's this:
The Obama-Biden ticket maintains its strong lead in the race for newspaper endorsements, picking up 17 more papers in the past day, including the giant Los Angeles Times and Chicago Tribune on Friday afternoon (see separate story), and the Denver Post, Atlanta Journal-Constitution, The Salt Lake Tribune, Kansas City Star, Southwest News-Herald (Ill.) and Chicago Sun-Times tonight.
This brings his lead over McCain-Palin by this measure to well over 3-1, at 58-16, including most of the major papers that have decided so far. In contrast, John Kerry barely edged George W. Bush in endorsements in 2004, by about 220 to 205.
Friday, October 17, 2008
They are starting to throw McCain under the bus
Collins will make a formal denouncement of the robocalls. Spokesman Kevin Kelley plans is issuing the following statement: “These kind of tactics have no place in Maine politics. Sen. Collins urges the McCain campaign to stop these calls immediately.”
I hope that more will join suit if McCain continues these antics with so little hope of accomplishing anything but disgracing himself and his party.
Chicago Judges
Colin Powell might endorse Obama
Also, Obama continues to caution us to play it safe. At a rally yesterday (or maybe today):
"Don't underestimate the capacity of Democrats to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory," he said, only half in jest. "Don't underestimate our ability to screw it up."
He added: "I want everybody running scared. Over the next 18 days, other than your family and your job, I want you to make a decision that there is nothing more important than bringing about this change that we need."
Nate Silver wrote about this (and Sassy covered it) weeks ago but a trader on Intrade gets formally exposed for making purchases to drive up the price of McCain's stock (or at least the predication that he'll win. or something like that.)
GOP Voter Suppression effort loses big in Ohio.
WASHINGTON - The Supreme Court sided Friday with Ohio's top elections official in a dispute with the state Republican Party over voter registrations.
The justices overruled a federal appeals court that had ordered Ohio's top elections official to do more to help counties verify voter eligibility.
Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, a Democrat, faced a deadline of Friday to set up a system to provide local officials with names of newly registered voters whose driver's license numbers or Social Security numbers on voter registration forms don't match records in other government databases.
'
Tribune endorses Obama
http://link.chicagotribune.com/r/WDVMTC/2CGHL/RUGOY7/ZAAU/I5UPL/B7/t
GOP Vote Suppression Efforts
This GOP effort also happened in 2006 as the DOJ unleashed the FBI to investigate voter fraud in the weeks leading to the election, despite DOJ policy to avoid such work right before an election, and which TPM reminds us led to the US Attorneys Scandal in the first place. In fact, they have a post today quoting fired US Attorney David Iglesias say this is a "scare tactic" by the White House.
But, the shifty FBI investigations are just a piece. Slate today describes other efforts including: bouncing 200,000 new voters from the Ohio rolls, an effort in Montana to bounce 6,000 American Indian and student voters from the rolls, fliers in Philly claiming that cops will hang out at polling stations to arrest people with outstanding tickets and/or warrants, and the Wisconsin GOP trying to recruit goons to "watch the polls" (i.e., intimidate voters) in minority districts in Milwaukee.
This happened in 2000, 2004, and 2006 (and probably 2002), and will probably keep the race tighter than we'd like. In fact, the atmosphere is so charged this year that I really think we'll be reading reports of voting stations on November 4. I think the remaining 18 days of this thing are going to be ugly.
Morning Roundup-Stay Calm
Luckily for McCain's campaign continues to be completely mismanaged. He's still spending money in Iowa for pete's sake. Stepping up his hate campaign, McCain unleashes a series of robocalls rehashing all the old lies about Ayers and Obama killing babies--I really think this is going to continue to turn people off. Plus he may be violating some state laws. Sweet! (If you want to listen to the calls, go here.
Oh and there's also so desperate they're harrassing voters! Where my people live in Charlotte!
Posted on Sullivan's blog
"I live in Charlotte NC, where today is the first day of early voting. I drove by two polling places before 8 this morning and they were both completely mobbed. My husband has driven to two others in his attempt to vote today, and the scene has been so ridiculous that he has given up and will try again next week. At two of the spots where he tried to vote, he witnessed and was approached by two exceedingly aggressive McCain/Palin volunteers who were pulling people out of line, handing out brochures, and telling them "You really need to think carefully about your vote. If you plan to vote Obama, we would ask that you read this material and reconsider your vote."
Kos picked up this quote from a really long (10 pages!) article in the NYT a few days ago. It's amazing how Barack can go after Fox News without letting the mud splatter on himself. It's all kind of matter-of-fact but with a dash of real concern thrown in. It blows my mind when I dare think about the greatness that could lie in an Obama presidency:
"I am convinced that if there were no Fox News, I might be two or three points higher in the polls," Obama told me. "If I were watching Fox News, I wouldn’t vote for me, right? Because the way I’m portrayed 24/7 is as a freak! I am the latte-sipping, New York Times-reading, Volvo-driving, no-gun-owning, effete, politically correct, arrogant liberal. Who wants somebody like that?
"I guess the point I’m making," he went on, "is that there is an entire industry now, an entire apparatus, designed to perpetuate this cultural schism, and it’s powerful. People want to know that you’re fighting for them, that you get them. And I actually think I do. But you know, if people are just seeing me in sound bites, they’re not going to discover that. That’s why I say that some of that may have to happen after the election, when they get to know you."
This is no surprise but it still made my heart pound louder in my chest. WaPo endorses Obama for President.:
"But Mr. Obama's temperament is unlike anything we've seen on the national stage in many years. He is deliberate but not indecisive; eloquent but a master of substance and detail; preternaturally confident but eager to hear opposing points of view. He has inspired millions of voters of diverse ages and races, no small thing in our often divided and cynical country. We think he is the right man for a perilous moment. "
Thursday, October 16, 2008
The Skinny on Vouchers
As I remembered, vouchers have failed to improve students performances--even in the DC program that McCain touted and the famous Milwaukee case (you can read why in the Washington Monthly article). Furthermore (and this is good for us) vouchers are wildly unpopular outside of cities. They've been voted down in several states--including Indiana where rural folks took offense at officials impugning their local public schools largely because they so identify with their high school basketball teams. But, the larger anti-voucher response has come from suburban parents who have blocked any voucher attempts lest poor kids end up in their kids' schools.
So, by hyping vouchers, McCain probably did himself harm. Just another case of him being out of touch with the real world.
You May Not Actually Be Bush, But...
Let's not get ahead of ourselves.
Morning Roundup--The Final Stretch
CNN, CBS, MediaCurves, the focus groups, all the same results. Obama wins big.
One more data piece on the Obama debate win from Democracy Corps:
Obama was seen as the clear victor in the debate, and a group that was much more disposed to support McCain at the outset instead shifted decisively toward Obama (42 to 20 percent) after viewing the debate.
So, let's give the unanimous debate win to Obama.
Gail Collins is reading my mind. I'm ready for election night.
Joe the Plumber may have been a McCain campaign plant. This should surprise no one.
The Virginia GOP has a new mailer about Obama that is so nasty it has to be seen to be believed.