Tuesday, September 30, 2008

I'm not in love with these numbers

Some disturbing new data from the ABC/Wapo poll released today.

"But it's now 50-44 percent in McCain's direction in trust to handle an unexpected crisis, with a potential opportunity for him to promote the stability of experience."
--interesting since mccain seems to instigate and inflame crisis. who the hell are these people?

"White women are one of the changeable groups.

Among likely voters they've gone from +7 for Obama before the party conventions to +11 for McCain afterward, then to about an even split last week (+2 Obama) – but back to +11 for McCain in this poll. (Married women, likewise, have been unsettled in their allegiance.)

White Catholics are another key swing group -- they've gone with the winner in each of the last eight presidential elections. Preferences in this group are steady from last week, but essentially evenly divided -- 47-46 percent, McCain-Obama. They had tilted heavily to McCain after his convention."

--so, clearly we all need to start going to church. well, at least the flanagans, doughertys, gavaghans and hassons. talk to your people, people!
--and, umm, married women are "unsettled". sooprize sooprize.

anyway, there are some good stats in here, too--but none that seem to be translating into a big impact in swing states. as nate silver reports.

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