Right now Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico look solid for Obama, giving Obama a 273-265 lead. If New Hampshire flips Red, it would give us that dreaded 269-269 tie. But that is looking increasingly unlikely. Indiana, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia are all virtually tied. Any of those could provide the necessary padding. And while not the closest right now in terms of the polls, the next biggest flip might very well be Indiana -- the Obama campaign has a stellar ground operation in the state, while McCain has completely ignored it. Nevada has nine McCain offices, NC 14, OH 45, and VA 13.
Indiana? Zero. With a little love, McCain might pull Indiana safely out of play, but they're operating under the theory that if they've lost Indiana, they've already lost enough states to lose the election. Given how tight the other "tipping point" states are, and how fiercely they are being contested, ignoring Indiana may prove to have been a bad call when all's said and done.
Given the trends right now, I still think Obama wins this thing with over 300 EVs. 322-216 to be exact, with Obama holding all the Kerry states, plus picking up Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, and Virginia. Of those, I'm least confident in Ohio, but we are otherwise looking pretty good. This week. Remember, this race can and has turned on a dime. We can't get complacent.
p.s. Take a look at West Virginia, where the composite has McCain up by just 4.6 points. That's a state Bush won by 16 points in 2004, yet there is the Appalachian state looking to buck trends and assumptions about its voters by outperforming Kerry with an African American. I'd love those numbers to hold up. It might be too late in the game to seriously contest the state, but it would be a beautiful trend to build on moving forward to 2010 and beyond.
Update: Newly released Ras poll has Obama leading 50-45 in Virginia, up from a two-point deficit three days ago. That's a seven-point swing in a matter of days.
Same deal with Florida. It was a 51-46 McCain advantage three days ago. Now it's down to a single-point, 48-47.
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