RealClearPolitics averages out all the major polls and has Obama at a +4.8 advantage. This includes post-debate reaction (though not all of it) and McCain's campaign suspension gambit. Only one out of 7 polls shows McCain ahead (by +2). Daily Kos has Obama over the magic number of 50, ahead 52-41. Nate Silver, as always, has the most robust analysis of what is happening:
On the strength of a set of national tracking polls that each show Obama at or near his high-water mark all year, our model projects that he would win an election hold today by 4.2 points. It discounts this lead slightly to a projected margin of 3.3 points on November 4, as most races tend to tighten as we approach election day.
This lead might not sound like that much, but it's fairly significant: we've been through two conventions and one debate, voters have dug their heels in, and Obama's position in the Electoral College is extremely robust. Trimming away a 4-5 point lead isn't that difficult over the summer months -- in fact, McCain accomplished exactly that in July and August -- but it's a steeper hill to climb after Labor Day. And if anything, our projection may be lowballing Obama slightly, as the aforementioned national tracking data (which incorporates one day of post-debate interviewing) has Obama's lead in the range of 5-8 points; the model will need Obama to hold those numbers for another day or two before it catches up to them.
All in all, some good news for the week of the Biden-Palin debate. What will McCain do now? Any ideas?
2 comments:
The Gallup daily tracking poll has predicted the winner of the election 11 out of 12 times since 1960 based on who is leading on October 1.
The only outlier was Reagan in '84, and as of Oct. 1 that year, there had not been a debate yet (which, I guess, Reagan dominated though I don't recall).
Needless to say, Obama will almost certainly be up by approximately 5 on Oct. 1. I'm just sayin'.
yes, reagan totally dominated and, also, the debate was only the week before the election. so carter didn't have time to rebound.
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