McCain (R) 39 (45)
Obama (D) 45 (42)
And this poll was conducted before McCain cut and run on the debates.
Update: Let's dig a bit into the internals (PDF).
Independents
McCain (R) 31 (46)
Obama (D) 36 (31)
A 20-point swing?
And speaking of swings, compared to the previous poll after the GOP convention, Sarah Palin's net favorability is down 16 points, McCain's down 11. Obama is +3 (eight points higher than McCain) while Biden is down five.
What else? Asked which candidate they'd be most likely to go hear speak, 42 percent said Obama, 24 percent McCain, 14 percent Palin and 3 percent Biden.
Opinion Research polls for Time magazine and CNN released Wednesday showed:
— Colorado: Obama 51, McCain 45 among registered voters. In late August, McCain had been ahead, 49 to 44. Among likely voters, Obama led in the new poll by 51 to 47.
— Michigan: Obama 51, McCain 44 among registered voters. Among likely voters, Obama leads 51 to 46.
— Pennsylvania: Obama 52, McCain 43 among registered voters. Among likely voters, Obama leads 53 to 44.
In summary, the campaigns agree that since the conventions:
Obama has gained in Florida, Virginia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Indiana and New Mexico.
McCain gained in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Alaska and North Dakota.
Both campaigns claim gains in Iowa.
Ohio remains a toss-up —perhaps the decisive prize. Nevada and New Hampshire are too close to call.
1 comment:
The poll that is problematic is New Hampshire.
As I understand it, if Obama holds alll of the Kerry-won states, and then adds Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado, he's in. Doesn't need Virginia or Ohio or Florida.
Iowa and New Mexico seem like locks. All trends in Colorado seem really encouraging. But trends in NH aren't encouraging. He really needs to hold that.
Of course, if he adds Virginia, then screw New Hampshire.
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