Nate Silver and fivethirtyeight.com has Obama up in predicted electoral votes for the first time in some time: 284.8 to 253.2 (with a 61.2% chance of winning the election, up from something like 41% earlier in the week).
Those numbers look great. All in all, I think the bloom came off the Palin-McCain, err, McCain-Palin ticket this week.
Bridget and I will also be gone this weekend--off to La La Land for a wedding. Remember, George and John, the topic here is politics, not the new Knight Rider.
I don't understand stats at all. But, I do know that Nate Silver's predictive model called Obama's convention bounce, McPalin's convention bounce and the return to an Obama advantage pretty much exactly. The only deviation was that McCain's bounce was smaller and shorter in duration than expected.
The expectation--speaking really broadly--is that things might plateau until the debates, and then naturally grow tighter right up to the election day. Which sucks for our collective ulcers.
3 comments:
oh, this is good. all this news is definitely going to make the McC campaign panic and when they panic, the f*** up (see palin, sarah).
kids, i'm outta here and where i'm goin' there ain't no sassy. so you're on your own; make me proud.
Those numbers look great. All in all, I think the bloom came off the Palin-McCain, err, McCain-Palin ticket this week.
Bridget and I will also be gone this weekend--off to La La Land for a wedding. Remember, George and John, the topic here is politics, not the new Knight Rider.
I don't understand stats at all. But, I do know that Nate Silver's predictive model called Obama's convention bounce, McPalin's convention bounce and the return to an Obama advantage pretty much exactly. The only deviation was that McCain's bounce was smaller and shorter in duration than expected.
The expectation--speaking really broadly--is that things might plateau until the debates, and then naturally grow tighter right up to the election day. Which sucks for our collective ulcers.
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