Some good tips on how to convince those prickly white, catholic women to vote for Obama.
Also, anyone else get the text from Obama to do some canvassing this weekend in WI, MI and IN? Who wants to pour into the subaru and head out there? We can pick up some cheese curds! Yum.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Sassy is Psychic!
more from the couric/palin interview (and then see "morning roundup" below about palin's reading habits):
COURIC: And when it comes to establishing your world view, I was curious, what newspapers and magazines did you regularly read before you were tapped for this — to stay informed and to understand the world?
PALIN: I’ve read most of them again with a great appreciation for the press, for the media —
COURIC: But what ones specifically? I’m curious.
PALIN: Um, all of them, any of them that have been in front of me over all these years.
COURIC: Can you name any of them?
PALIN: I have a vast variety of sources where we get our news.
All of them, huh?
I'm not in love with these numbers
Some disturbing new data from the ABC/Wapo poll released today.
"But it's now 50-44 percent in McCain's direction in trust to handle an unexpected crisis, with a potential opportunity for him to promote the stability of experience."
--interesting since mccain seems to instigate and inflame crisis. who the hell are these people?
"White women are one of the changeable groups.
--and, umm, married women are "unsettled". sooprize sooprize.
anyway, there are some good stats in here, too--but none that seem to be translating into a big impact in swing states. as nate silver reports.
"But it's now 50-44 percent in McCain's direction in trust to handle an unexpected crisis, with a potential opportunity for him to promote the stability of experience."
--interesting since mccain seems to instigate and inflame crisis. who the hell are these people?
"White women are one of the changeable groups.
Among likely voters they've gone from +7 for Obama before the party conventions to +11 for McCain afterward, then to about an even split last week (+2 Obama) – but back to +11 for McCain in this poll. (Married women, likewise, have been unsettled in their allegiance.)
White Catholics are another key swing group -- they've gone with the winner in each of the last eight presidential elections. Preferences in this group are steady from last week, but essentially evenly divided -- 47-46 percent, McCain-Obama. They had tilted heavily to McCain after his convention."
--so, clearly we all need to start going to church. well, at least the flanagans, doughertys, gavaghans and hassons. talk to your people, people!--and, umm, married women are "unsettled". sooprize sooprize.
anyway, there are some good stats in here, too--but none that seem to be translating into a big impact in swing states. as nate silver reports.
TPM: Obama Quietly Stepping Up
Okay, so my stupid job really mucked with my blogging today. I even had to forego my normal, inappropriately large amount of time surfing news sources and blogs. Is this what it's like to be a grown up?
Anyhow, I did quickly scan my latest favorite site, Talking Points Memo. Of course, TPM had a lot to talk about today, such as McCain again threatening to skip a debate and McCain trying to deny that he blamed Obama for the bailout failure, but the piece that I felt best about talked about Barack quietly stepping up to help the bailout along. It mentions that it's a tricky proposition, but at least he's working on it.
Anyhow, I did quickly scan my latest favorite site, Talking Points Memo. Of course, TPM had a lot to talk about today, such as McCain again threatening to skip a debate and McCain trying to deny that he blamed Obama for the bailout failure, but the piece that I felt best about talked about Barack quietly stepping up to help the bailout along. It mentions that it's a tricky proposition, but at least he's working on it.
A Modest Proposal (replace "dollars" with "Beanie Babies")
Clearly the only sector of the economy that is strong is the Beanie Baby sector. Obama needs to lead on this, or get left behind.
From Crain's Chicago Business:
Chicago Spire penthouse sold to Beanie Babies’ Warner
By Eddie BaebSept. 30, 2008(Crain’s) — The penthouse unit of the Chicago Spire, which was listed at a staggering $40 million, has been sold to Beanie Babies magnate Ty Warner.
A spokeswoman for Spire developer Shelbourne Development Group Inc. says Mr. Warner, president and CEO of Westmont-based Ty Inc., signed a contract Monday for the 10,293-square-foot unit on the 141st and 142nd floors of the twisting tower that’s to be built at 400 N. Lake Shore Drive. She declined to disclose the sale price. ..
Forbes magazine ranks Mr. Warner as the 84th-wealthiest person in America, with an estimated net worth of $4.4 billion, thanks to the success of Ty as well as some investments in commercial real estate.
From Crain's Chicago Business:
Chicago Spire penthouse sold to Beanie Babies’ Warner
By Eddie BaebSept. 30, 2008(Crain’s) — The penthouse unit of the Chicago Spire, which was listed at a staggering $40 million, has been sold to Beanie Babies magnate Ty Warner.
A spokeswoman for Spire developer Shelbourne Development Group Inc. says Mr. Warner, president and CEO of Westmont-based Ty Inc., signed a contract Monday for the 10,293-square-foot unit on the 141st and 142nd floors of the twisting tower that’s to be built at 400 N. Lake Shore Drive. She declined to disclose the sale price. ..
Forbes magazine ranks Mr. Warner as the 84th-wealthiest person in America, with an estimated net worth of $4.4 billion, thanks to the success of Ty as well as some investments in commercial real estate.
Morning Roundup
Monday, September 29, 2008
Okay, one more thing. Maybe two. Or Three.
You know we're in trouble when...
Bush speaks to the nation twice in one week.
With the markets opening in Australia this hour, and already down 4%, Bush is addressing the nation tomorrow morning. I think around 8am. He'll definitely have to set his alarm clock.
Surely there will be very specific questions about the bailout at the debate on Thursday. Congress is, unbelievably, in recess until Thursday (actually, I think the Senate is in tomorrow, but the House is not). I just can't imagine what this week is going to bring. Paul Krugman was just on Countdown and said, and I'm not kidding, that you should definitely not have to worry about any money that is federally insured. So, basically, your savings account should be fine, but all bets are off with 401(k)s and investments. Lovely. And Congress is in recess; yes, for the Jewish holidays. But if it was Christmas (or Halloween, even!), I'd expect them to keep their butts in town and get to business.
Honestly, at this point, campaigning and debates do seem somewhat frivolous and unimportant. I hope Obama's campaign comes up with a measured but powerful reaction to the bailout bill bust. There's a good article in today's NYT about McCain and Obama's different reactions to the bill and how much they reflect their personalities and philosophies. If only Obama's campaign would do a better job of communicating the role Barack is playing.
Gotta get to bed so I can wake up in time to hear what our fearless leader has to say.
With the markets opening in Australia this hour, and already down 4%, Bush is addressing the nation tomorrow morning. I think around 8am. He'll definitely have to set his alarm clock.
Surely there will be very specific questions about the bailout at the debate on Thursday. Congress is, unbelievably, in recess until Thursday (actually, I think the Senate is in tomorrow, but the House is not). I just can't imagine what this week is going to bring. Paul Krugman was just on Countdown and said, and I'm not kidding, that you should definitely not have to worry about any money that is federally insured. So, basically, your savings account should be fine, but all bets are off with 401(k)s and investments. Lovely. And Congress is in recess; yes, for the Jewish holidays. But if it was Christmas (or Halloween, even!), I'd expect them to keep their butts in town and get to business.
Honestly, at this point, campaigning and debates do seem somewhat frivolous and unimportant. I hope Obama's campaign comes up with a measured but powerful reaction to the bailout bill bust. There's a good article in today's NYT about McCain and Obama's different reactions to the bill and how much they reflect their personalities and philosophies. If only Obama's campaign would do a better job of communicating the role Barack is playing.
Gotta get to bed so I can wake up in time to hear what our fearless leader has to say.
Brand New Sassy!
Aunt Ilsa and baby Colin (the most beeeyoootiful baby in the whole world)
5lbs, 13oz, 18"
Baby and mom are doing really well and going home tomorrow.
Barack's Turn to Ride In?
This is an interesting angle on the bailout failure from Salon:
"All of which sets up a great moment for Obama: He now faces a key opportunity when he could, though not quite suspend his campaign, redirect his energies toward Washington and actually saving the situation. The GOP is not going to help. But there are many freshmen Democrats worried about Obama's coattails and their own re-election prospects this fall who voted 'nay.' There are many minority members who also voted 'nay.' What a great opportunity for Obama to work behind the scenes (in case he fails) and then come forward with two-dozen new Democrats lined up behind him to push the bill over the top. And emerge as the hero of the moment, the markets...and the election."
This could be pretty hard to pull off, though. Nate Silver looked at the roll call and found that members with tight races voted against it. The whole package has been awfully unpopular with the public. Although, a couple may bank failings might turn that around a tad.
If he could pull this off, it would be pretty dope. Sure, it would be somewhat crassly political to come forward with these folks, but it would certainly make him look like a more effective leader than McCain.
"All of which sets up a great moment for Obama: He now faces a key opportunity when he could, though not quite suspend his campaign, redirect his energies toward Washington and actually saving the situation. The GOP is not going to help. But there are many freshmen Democrats worried about Obama's coattails and their own re-election prospects this fall who voted 'nay.' There are many minority members who also voted 'nay.' What a great opportunity for Obama to work behind the scenes (in case he fails) and then come forward with two-dozen new Democrats lined up behind him to push the bill over the top. And emerge as the hero of the moment, the markets...and the election."
This could be pretty hard to pull off, though. Nate Silver looked at the roll call and found that members with tight races voted against it. The whole package has been awfully unpopular with the public. Although, a couple may bank failings might turn that around a tad.
If he could pull this off, it would be pretty dope. Sure, it would be somewhat crassly political to come forward with these folks, but it would certainly make him look like a more effective leader than McCain.
Just in time for the debate
Buried near the end of today's column from Howard Kurtz, where he is talking about Sarah Palin's disastrous interview with Katie Couric, was this interesting tidbit:
And the worst may be yet to come for Palin; sources say CBS has two more responses on tape that will likely prove embarrassing.
Given the excruciatingly bad answers she gave on Alaska's proximity to Russia giving her foreign policy experience, or her take on the $700 billion bailout, it's hard to believe that there's anything worse...isn't it? But the important question is, what is CBS waiting for? Why haven't they aired the entire tape?
Oh, and...
Via USA Today, we hear from Didi Lima, GOP communications (!) director in Clark County, Nevada:
"We don't want (Hispanics) to become the new African-American community," Lima told The Associated Press. "And that's what the Democratic Party is going to do to them, create more programs and give them handouts, food stamps and checks for this and checks for that. We don't want that."
"I'm very much afraid that the Democratic Party is going to do the same thing that they did with the African-American culture and make them all dependent on the government and we don't want that," she said.
Lima "was removed from her post" after the remarks, according to the article, and lost her second position as well.
In August, Lima was named co-chair of McCain's Nevada Hispanic Leadership Team, which aimed to reach out to a crucial voting bloc in a state where polls show McCain in a dead heat with Barack Obama.
both posts from kos
McCain Stunt Watch: Wedding Bells for Bristol?
The Times UK writes that there may be a push for Bristol and Levi to get hitched before November 4. According to the report, the McCain camp will make it a media event and hopes that it would create a positive burst for Palin.
Is this a real possibility? Who knows? We haven't heard any rumors stateside, and I can't imagine that a British reporter has more access to the campaign than an American one. But, you know they would do it.
Is this a real possibility? Who knows? We haven't heard any rumors stateside, and I can't imagine that a British reporter has more access to the campaign than an American one. But, you know they would do it.
Today's Polls
RealClearPolitics averages out all the major polls and has Obama at a +4.8 advantage. This includes post-debate reaction (though not all of it) and McCain's campaign suspension gambit. Only one out of 7 polls shows McCain ahead (by +2). Daily Kos has Obama over the magic number of 50, ahead 52-41. Nate Silver, as always, has the most robust analysis of what is happening:
On the strength of a set of national tracking polls that each show Obama at or near his high-water mark all year, our model projects that he would win an election hold today by 4.2 points. It discounts this lead slightly to a projected margin of 3.3 points on November 4, as most races tend to tighten as we approach election day.
This lead might not sound like that much, but it's fairly significant: we've been through two conventions and one debate, voters have dug their heels in, and Obama's position in the Electoral College is extremely robust. Trimming away a 4-5 point lead isn't that difficult over the summer months -- in fact, McCain accomplished exactly that in July and August -- but it's a steeper hill to climb after Labor Day. And if anything, our projection may be lowballing Obama slightly, as the aforementioned national tracking data (which incorporates one day of post-debate interviewing) has Obama's lead in the range of 5-8 points; the model will need Obama to hold those numbers for another day or two before it catches up to them.
All in all, some good news for the week of the Biden-Palin debate. What will McCain do now? Any ideas?
On the strength of a set of national tracking polls that each show Obama at or near his high-water mark all year, our model projects that he would win an election hold today by 4.2 points. It discounts this lead slightly to a projected margin of 3.3 points on November 4, as most races tend to tighten as we approach election day.
This lead might not sound like that much, but it's fairly significant: we've been through two conventions and one debate, voters have dug their heels in, and Obama's position in the Electoral College is extremely robust. Trimming away a 4-5 point lead isn't that difficult over the summer months -- in fact, McCain accomplished exactly that in July and August -- but it's a steeper hill to climb after Labor Day. And if anything, our projection may be lowballing Obama slightly, as the aforementioned national tracking data (which incorporates one day of post-debate interviewing) has Obama's lead in the range of 5-8 points; the model will need Obama to hold those numbers for another day or two before it catches up to them.
All in all, some good news for the week of the Biden-Palin debate. What will McCain do now? Any ideas?
Sunday, September 28, 2008
A little bit of happy for your Sunday
26,000 Virginians show up for Obama/Biden--in the RAIN. really cool pics here.
Meanwhile, McCain is back to having to defend/explain/rationalize Sarah Palin's remarks. Good news for Linda--this is all anyone is talking about after McCain's appearance this morning. Oh, that and also this interview was originally scheduled to be a town hall type event in Ohio with a bunch of pre-selected Independents. It was cancelled at the last minute and no one told the audience.
Meanwhile, McCain is back to having to defend/explain/rationalize Sarah Palin's remarks. Good news for Linda--this is all anyone is talking about after McCain's appearance this morning. Oh, that and also this interview was originally scheduled to be a town hall type event in Ohio with a bunch of pre-selected Independents. It was cancelled at the last minute and no one told the audience.
A Note to Bill Clinton
i'm not sure i think this is all about hillary. i think it's more about bill--his fears over no longer being the head of the democratic party, his anger over the media attacks he personally and rightly received on the primary campaign trail (for being out of touch, vaguely racist, ego-centric) and his general frustration over his diminishing relevance.
Sunday Polls
Kos Daily Tracking Poll 9/28
Today's Daily Kos Research 2000 tracking poll has Obama up over McCain 50-43. All trackers are data from three days prior to posting, with R2K from today (yesterday) and the others from yesterday. Trackers will start to reflect Friday's debate performance today, but fully reflect it Tuesday.
Obama McCain MoE +/- RV/LV
Today
Research 2000: 50 (49) 43 (43) 3 LV
Rasmussen: 50 (50) 44 (44) 2 LV
Yesterday
Diageo/Hotline: 48 (49) 43 (42) 3.2 RV
Gallup: 49 (48) 44 (45) 2 RV
Yesterday's polling, the first after the debate, was the strongest Obama day picked up by the R2K tracking poll. He led 51-42, and therefore, Obama had a +9 on Sa to go with +5 Th, +7 Fri (MoE +/- 5.1 for individual days.) Sarah Palin's fav/unfav are now -10 (40/50), and Obama is +27 (his improvement is via dropping his unfav to 32.)
Let's include the winner-take-all markets today (with caveats):
Intrade Obama 57.3 McCain 42.0
Rasmussen Obama 57.3 McCain 41.7
Iowa Electronic Market Obama 63.7 McCain 35.9
These all represent improvement from last week, when Obama led ~52-48.
Saturday, September 27, 2008
Ted Stevens guilty!
From the NYT:
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens has been convicted of lying about free home renovations and other gifts he received from a wealthy oil contractor.
The Senate's longest-serving Republican, Stevens was found guilty on all seven counts of making false statements on Senate financial documents.
The verdict throws the upcoming election into disarray. Stevens is fighting off a challenge from Democrat Mark Begich and must now either drop out or continue campaigning as a convicted felon.
The trial hinged on the testimony of Stevens' longtime friend, who testified that his employees dramatically remodeled the senator's home.
Stevens faces up to five years in prison on each count but, under federal sentencing guidelines, will likely receive much less prison time, if any.
Sassy Friends and Family--One Time Special Offer!
If you've been passed the salon sassy blog address in a dark alley, late a night, with a whispered caution "Don't share this. And, for god's sake, don't comment! No one can ever know you were here." by a friend (like Bridget) or family (like Amy), but you're desperately wanting to call us out on some stupid shit we said or share a really cool article or just generally get some heavy stuff off your chest--well, now's the time! Please, feel free to comment on anything that gets you juiced up. And don't worry about offending us, I'll just edit your ass out if I don't like it. Cuz I'm the Sassy Queen and the bloggers are my loyal subjects (well, except Bridg, she listens to No One).
But seriously, we want to hear from you. The Sassy bloggers know each other too well and trust me, we haven't heard anything new from each other in quite some time. So enlighten us, share your fears, make us laugh. But don't make us cry, JGJ only likes to do that, all alone, in his basement, when the Cubs lose. And this year, the kids are going all the way. And so is Barack.
See you at the Inauguration. Or the World Series.
With love and peace, and boatloads of optimism,
Ilsa
But seriously, we want to hear from you. The Sassy bloggers know each other too well and trust me, we haven't heard anything new from each other in quite some time. So enlighten us, share your fears, make us laugh. But don't make us cry, JGJ only likes to do that, all alone, in his basement, when the Cubs lose. And this year, the kids are going all the way. And so is Barack.
See you at the Inauguration. Or the World Series.
With love and peace, and boatloads of optimism,
Ilsa
Debate Hangover
This is the best summary I've seen on the web about the debate (and not only because it matches up with the Sassy world view). Includes internals from CNN's poll (McCain only rated significantly higher on Obama in one area: "spends more time attacking his opponent"), a theory on why the pundits thought McCain won the debate, and other good stuff.
Jonathan Alter on MSNBC: The biggest loser? Sarah Palin. The debates set a standard she cannot live up to.
On top of that, McCain's defensive, tense, and snarky demeanor lost him points with pretty much every columnist covering this story. It will be interesting to see if he changes his posture and eye contact for the next debate.
A lot of today's columnists are saying that either there was no knock-out punch or Obama won. Either way, this was McCain's chance for a game-changer. He failed and Sarah Palin ain't gonna help next week. She wasn't even allowed on TV last night after the debates. I think, too, that those who believe McCain won on the foreign policy part of the debate (like WSJ) agree with McCain's world view. But this debate was more about the undecideds and according to the CBS poll and even Fox News focus group last night (which Sassy watched, though not happily)--they aren't even closed to being convinced McCain is the guy. That's good news for the good guys.
As TPM put it: "McCain last night needed to suddenly reveal Obama as frighteningly unpresidential, unprepared, and potentially incompetent in the realm of international affairs. In short, McCain needed to force a moment where Obama looked a bit like, well, McCain's running mate. He needed to startle the electorate into seeing this race in a new way. And he didn't do that. Not even close."
Not even close. Just like the election.
Jonathan Alter on MSNBC: The biggest loser? Sarah Palin. The debates set a standard she cannot live up to.
On top of that, McCain's defensive, tense, and snarky demeanor lost him points with pretty much every columnist covering this story. It will be interesting to see if he changes his posture and eye contact for the next debate.
A lot of today's columnists are saying that either there was no knock-out punch or Obama won. Either way, this was McCain's chance for a game-changer. He failed and Sarah Palin ain't gonna help next week. She wasn't even allowed on TV last night after the debates. I think, too, that those who believe McCain won on the foreign policy part of the debate (like WSJ) agree with McCain's world view. But this debate was more about the undecideds and according to the CBS poll and even Fox News focus group last night (which Sassy watched, though not happily)--they aren't even closed to being convinced McCain is the guy. That's good news for the good guys.
As TPM put it: "McCain last night needed to suddenly reveal Obama as frighteningly unpresidential, unprepared, and potentially incompetent in the realm of international affairs. In short, McCain needed to force a moment where Obama looked a bit like, well, McCain's running mate. He needed to startle the electorate into seeing this race in a new way. And he didn't do that. Not even close."
Not even close. Just like the election.
Friday, September 26, 2008
tide is turning
as the polls show that obama seems to have won the debate, commentators are actually changing their tune. amazing.
sassy is working on its very first video! stay tuned.
sassy is working on its very first video! stay tuned.
post-debate coverage
commentators think mccain was tough, put barack on the defensive--a street-fighter whereas barack is "cerebral". we're all incredulous at sassy. we thought barack was sharp, clear, deferential, warm, and presidential. i just don't see how anyone can say that mccain won this debate. the guy never even turned his body toward barack or looked him in the eye. he seemed like a snarky, petulant, bratty guy. i'm sorry, don't we already have that guy in office?
Live Blogging, Wrapping Up
9:26 Obama believes in Star Wars, did I just misunderstand that?
9:28 Yep, our reputation matters. Wait? Credit on the torture issue, didn't McCain vote against the anti-torture bill earlier this year?
9:29 Penny calls McCain an ankle bitter. Sounds about right. All snarky little digs, no good substance.
9:30 Good points by Barack about how our singular focus has allowed China to grab for power around the world.
9:32 Another good point along these lines to have a broad view of the challenges in the world
9:32 McCain just tried to compare Obama's stances to Bush's stubborness. Pardon me while I pick my jaw up from the floor.
9:33 Penny's reply to McCain's reform, prosperity, peace "ice cream, puppies, kittens"
9:35 I can't believe that it took this long for McCain to mention that he was a POW
So, final verdict? Open for the comments. To start off, Dave doesn't know that there was really a winner on this one.
9:28 Yep, our reputation matters. Wait? Credit on the torture issue, didn't McCain vote against the anti-torture bill earlier this year?
9:29 Penny calls McCain an ankle bitter. Sounds about right. All snarky little digs, no good substance.
9:30 Good points by Barack about how our singular focus has allowed China to grab for power around the world.
9:32 Another good point along these lines to have a broad view of the challenges in the world
9:32 McCain just tried to compare Obama's stances to Bush's stubborness. Pardon me while I pick my jaw up from the floor.
9:33 Penny's reply to McCain's reform, prosperity, peace "ice cream, puppies, kittens"
9:35 I can't believe that it took this long for McCain to mention that he was a POW
So, final verdict? Open for the comments. To start off, Dave doesn't know that there was really a winner on this one.
Live Blog, Part II
Okay, now we're on to Iraq and Barack just kind of slipped in pointing to Biden covering his lack of his experience. Oops.
8:43 Whenever Barack directly addresses and attacks McCain, he looks and awkwardly smiles at Lehrer like he's being called out in a lie.
8:45 mccain just said that barack doesn't know the difference between a tactic and a strategy. but then he never really explains the difference himself. or maybe he did and i'm just too stupid to understand. yeah, that's it.
8:50 I have to say that it's a little discordant for Barack to talk about putting more troops in Afghanistan while running away from talking about the Surge. What's the difference between the two tactics?
8:54 Did McCain just fart? Did someone in the front row just flash him? I have no idea what just happened as he bizarrely looked out toward the audience with a confused look on his face.
8:55 Okay, Barack just got a good point in about our dealings with Pakistan. I was getting a little scared about the direction of this Afghanistan/Pakistan discussion.
8:57 McCain trying to pull at heart strings by bringing up military parents that he's met.
8:58 Ugh, now we're in a bracelet-from-military-mom off. But, I liked Barack's point about no soldier ever dies in vain because their doing their duty.
9:00 McCain starting to growl. Barack needs to poke at him more.
9:02 McCain takes bold stance against a second Holocaust. Now he's on about his freaking League of Democracy! Who exactly is going to join us in wielding our economic power against Iran and Russia?!? Does he really think France and Germany are going to join his club? Sheesh.
9:04 McCain keeps groaning off camera. It's gross.
9:05 Nice point by Barack tying Iran's gain in strength to the Iraq war. And, good show talking about the need for diplomacy.
9:06 Does it really show your foreign policy chops to completely fail to pronounce the name of a world leader?
9:07 Penny says, "[McCain's] like the crazy uncle you don't want to sit next to at Thanksgiving."
9:08 Oh but Kissinger agrees with Obama.
9:13 Barack just caught up with Bridget
9:16 Thank you, Barack, for bringing up the need to work with Russia to secure loose nukes, but I wish he'd push that a little further to talk about how our macho posture over the last 8 years has hurt our world standing.
9:17 McCain is flat out disrespectful to Barack.
9:18 I'm sick of McCain dropping names and dropping stupid Pop-Up Video asides! Okay, you looked at your briefing notes. We get it.
9:24 mccain refuses to look directly at obama. i just can't believe that he's winning this debate based on body language, eye contact, and creepy laughing.
8:43 Whenever Barack directly addresses and attacks McCain, he looks and awkwardly smiles at Lehrer like he's being called out in a lie.
8:45 mccain just said that barack doesn't know the difference between a tactic and a strategy. but then he never really explains the difference himself. or maybe he did and i'm just too stupid to understand. yeah, that's it.
8:50 I have to say that it's a little discordant for Barack to talk about putting more troops in Afghanistan while running away from talking about the Surge. What's the difference between the two tactics?
8:54 Did McCain just fart? Did someone in the front row just flash him? I have no idea what just happened as he bizarrely looked out toward the audience with a confused look on his face.
8:55 Okay, Barack just got a good point in about our dealings with Pakistan. I was getting a little scared about the direction of this Afghanistan/Pakistan discussion.
8:57 McCain trying to pull at heart strings by bringing up military parents that he's met.
8:58 Ugh, now we're in a bracelet-from-military-mom off. But, I liked Barack's point about no soldier ever dies in vain because their doing their duty.
9:00 McCain starting to growl. Barack needs to poke at him more.
9:02 McCain takes bold stance against a second Holocaust. Now he's on about his freaking League of Democracy! Who exactly is going to join us in wielding our economic power against Iran and Russia?!? Does he really think France and Germany are going to join his club? Sheesh.
9:04 McCain keeps groaning off camera. It's gross.
9:05 Nice point by Barack tying Iran's gain in strength to the Iraq war. And, good show talking about the need for diplomacy.
9:06 Does it really show your foreign policy chops to completely fail to pronounce the name of a world leader?
9:07 Penny says, "[McCain's] like the crazy uncle you don't want to sit next to at Thanksgiving."
9:08 Oh but Kissinger agrees with Obama.
9:13 Barack just caught up with Bridget
9:16 Thank you, Barack, for bringing up the need to work with Russia to secure loose nukes, but I wish he'd push that a little further to talk about how our macho posture over the last 8 years has hurt our world standing.
9:17 McCain is flat out disrespectful to Barack.
9:18 I'm sick of McCain dropping names and dropping stupid Pop-Up Video asides! Okay, you looked at your briefing notes. We get it.
9:24 mccain refuses to look directly at obama. i just can't believe that he's winning this debate based on body language, eye contact, and creepy laughing.
The Debate Begins
Welcome Sassy friends and family!! Feel free to comment at any time.
Barack looks and sounds presidential. And, dare I say, kind of hot. ilsa
8:05 McCain's first joke falls flat. Not a wise move to crack wise about your age when you're the oldest presidential candidate ever.
8:06 McCain's alternate reality has the House GOP who blocked the bailout serving as the solution to the problem
McCain says we're at the end of the beginning of the fiscal crisis. what the hell does that mean? ilsa
barack sounds smart and sharp. mccain sounds like grandpa sitting in the lazyboy in the corner of the living room.
8:12 Lehrer's trying his damndest to get the two to scrap, but so far their not buying
8:14 McCain blames the financial crisis on budget problems, and displays the pen that he'll use for vetoes. Huh?
8:15 Nice! Barack answers McCain's grumbling about $18 million in earmarks by pointing out the $300 million tax cut McCain wants for richies
we're all trying to figure out where mccain's "the wall street" is? disneyland?
mccain won't even look at barack when barack is speaking. not good. he looks smarmy and condescending. oh, and elitist.
can we get off earmarks? does anyone even care about them? it certainly didn't cause the problem on the wall street.
8:23 Penny wants Barack to remind everyone that McCain voted with Bush 90 percent of the time.
8:24 McCain smiles. My blood runs cold. Bridget
8:26 Ummm....Barack's kinda not answering the question about what programs he'd cut due to the bailout package. But, McCain has yet to talk about how this relates to earmarks.
8:27 McCain actually says something I agree with when he rails against military contracts. Stop making sense, dammit!
8:29 Yikes, Lehrer just drove the point about the programs to cut
8:30 Okay, this is good, Barack found some stuff to cut involving insurance companies and turned McCain's quip about him being too liberal by pointing out that he disagrees with Bush
8:31 McCain just stood up for freezing all government spending aside from the military, veteran's affairs, and entitlements. Looks like he's keeping the option of taking breaks from important things--like debates--when he's in office, too.
8:34 still talking about the economy. mccain must be pissed. i love how obama smiles at mccain --it's warm and kind of sad.
8:35 if mccain says spending is the big problem in the economy one more time, i'm going to have to get up and get another glass of wine.
8:36 Penny gets her 90 percent.
8:37 Maverick makes a debut!
8:40 Obama makes good eye contact, looks cool and calm. McCain, not so much.
Barack looks and sounds presidential. And, dare I say, kind of hot. ilsa
8:05 McCain's first joke falls flat. Not a wise move to crack wise about your age when you're the oldest presidential candidate ever.
8:06 McCain's alternate reality has the House GOP who blocked the bailout serving as the solution to the problem
McCain says we're at the end of the beginning of the fiscal crisis. what the hell does that mean? ilsa
barack sounds smart and sharp. mccain sounds like grandpa sitting in the lazyboy in the corner of the living room.
8:12 Lehrer's trying his damndest to get the two to scrap, but so far their not buying
8:14 McCain blames the financial crisis on budget problems, and displays the pen that he'll use for vetoes. Huh?
8:15 Nice! Barack answers McCain's grumbling about $18 million in earmarks by pointing out the $300 million tax cut McCain wants for richies
we're all trying to figure out where mccain's "the wall street" is? disneyland?
mccain won't even look at barack when barack is speaking. not good. he looks smarmy and condescending. oh, and elitist.
can we get off earmarks? does anyone even care about them? it certainly didn't cause the problem on the wall street.
8:23 Penny wants Barack to remind everyone that McCain voted with Bush 90 percent of the time.
8:24 McCain smiles. My blood runs cold. Bridget
8:26 Ummm....Barack's kinda not answering the question about what programs he'd cut due to the bailout package. But, McCain has yet to talk about how this relates to earmarks.
8:27 McCain actually says something I agree with when he rails against military contracts. Stop making sense, dammit!
8:29 Yikes, Lehrer just drove the point about the programs to cut
8:30 Okay, this is good, Barack found some stuff to cut involving insurance companies and turned McCain's quip about him being too liberal by pointing out that he disagrees with Bush
8:31 McCain just stood up for freezing all government spending aside from the military, veteran's affairs, and entitlements. Looks like he's keeping the option of taking breaks from important things--like debates--when he's in office, too.
8:34 still talking about the economy. mccain must be pissed. i love how obama smiles at mccain --it's warm and kind of sad.
8:35 if mccain says spending is the big problem in the economy one more time, i'm going to have to get up and get another glass of wine.
8:36 Penny gets her 90 percent.
8:37 Maverick makes a debut!
8:40 Obama makes good eye contact, looks cool and calm. McCain, not so much.
Dem Voter Registration Stomping GOP
From TPM: The Democratic ground game is crushing the GOP in new voter registration to the point that it could be erasing Repug advantages in CO, FL, NC, NH, NM, NV, and PA. This goes along with the news we've been hearing for a while that Obama's ground game advantage. The last I heard, McCain's basically had no local presence in most key states. That was supposed to change when Palin joined the ticket and fired up the ueber-organized Christian right, but thus far, it looks like the Dems are still way ahead.
Oh, and according to Rasmussen, Mark Warner is crushing Jim Gilmore for the Senate seat in VA. I don't think that's news, but it just makes me happy to put that into words. I can't imagine VA has had two Democratic Senators since the whole Civil Rights Era/Nixon/Southern strategy re-alignment of the parties.
Oh, and according to Rasmussen, Mark Warner is crushing Jim Gilmore for the Senate seat in VA. I don't think that's news, but it just makes me happy to put that into words. I can't imagine VA has had two Democratic Senators since the whole Civil Rights Era/Nixon/Southern strategy re-alignment of the parties.
Oops
McCain may have created an unfriendly environment for himself at tonight's debate. From Andrew Sullivan:
Into The Lion's Den
26 Sep 2008 02:12 pm
Lowry:
One side effect of McCain's debate gambit is, I'm told, that everyone at Ole Miss now hates him. It will make for a very hostile audience tonight among those students and faculty attending. He might have to apologize for creating the uncertainty or make some explanation up front, which is never ideal.
Into The Lion's Den
26 Sep 2008 02:12 pm
Lowry:
One side effect of McCain's debate gambit is, I'm told, that everyone at Ole Miss now hates him. It will make for a very hostile audience tonight among those students and faculty attending. He might have to apologize for creating the uncertainty or make some explanation up front, which is never ideal.
McCain Preemptively Declares Victory in Debate
The Washington Post saw and captured this ad on the Wall Street Journal opinion web page this morning. Before McCain said he'd be heading back to the debate. And, I guess there's another ad floating around with a quote from McCain's campaign manager saying, "McCain won the debate -- hands down."
Ohboyohboyohboyohboyohboy
from kos
Right now Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico look solid for Obama, giving Obama a 273-265 lead. If New Hampshire flips Red, it would give us that dreaded 269-269 tie. But that is looking increasingly unlikely. Indiana, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia are all virtually tied. Any of those could provide the necessary padding. And while not the closest right now in terms of the polls, the next biggest flip might very well be Indiana -- the Obama campaign has a stellar ground operation in the state, while McCain has completely ignored it. Nevada has nine McCain offices, NC 14, OH 45, and VA 13.
Indiana? Zero. With a little love, McCain might pull Indiana safely out of play, but they're operating under the theory that if they've lost Indiana, they've already lost enough states to lose the election. Given how tight the other "tipping point" states are, and how fiercely they are being contested, ignoring Indiana may prove to have been a bad call when all's said and done.
Given the trends right now, I still think Obama wins this thing with over 300 EVs. 322-216 to be exact, with Obama holding all the Kerry states, plus picking up Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, and Virginia. Of those, I'm least confident in Ohio, but we are otherwise looking pretty good. This week. Remember, this race can and has turned on a dime. We can't get complacent.
p.s. Take a look at West Virginia, where the composite has McCain up by just 4.6 points. That's a state Bush won by 16 points in 2004, yet there is the Appalachian state looking to buck trends and assumptions about its voters by outperforming Kerry with an African American. I'd love those numbers to hold up. It might be too late in the game to seriously contest the state, but it would be a beautiful trend to build on moving forward to 2010 and beyond.
Update: Newly released Ras poll has Obama leading 50-45 in Virginia, up from a two-point deficit three days ago. That's a seven-point swing in a matter of days.
Same deal with Florida. It was a 51-46 McCain advantage three days ago. Now it's down to a single-point, 48-47.
It's On
Dave, Bridg and Ilsa are going to try their hand at live blogging for the debate tonight. Right now Dave is all over wikipedia for obscure historical factoids about debates, Bridget is sharpening up her sarcasm and I'm going shopping for a new dress.
Tune in later and keep your fingers crossed for special guest-blogger Professor Wu.
(And let's see how long before Ilsa uses an expletive.)
Tune in later and keep your fingers crossed for special guest-blogger Professor Wu.
(And let's see how long before Ilsa uses an expletive.)
Happy Birthday, Seana
Announcement from McC:
Senator McCain has spent the morning talking to members of the Administration, members of the Senate, and members of the House. He is optimistic that there has been significant progress toward a bipartisan agreement now that there is a framework for all parties to be represented in negotiations, including Representative Blunt as a designated negotiator for House Republicans. The McCain campaign is resuming all activities and the Senator will travel to the debate this afternoon. Following the debate, he will return to Washington to ensure that all voices and interests are represented in the final agreement, especially those of taxpayers and homeowners.
meanwhile, as everyone knows the campaign was never suspended and mccain has absolutely nothing to do with the bailout negotiations. and jim lehrer has officially reserved the right to ask whatever he questions he wants tonight. as he said in an email to NYT "stay tuned!".
Senator McCain has spent the morning talking to members of the Administration, members of the Senate, and members of the House. He is optimistic that there has been significant progress toward a bipartisan agreement now that there is a framework for all parties to be represented in negotiations, including Representative Blunt as a designated negotiator for House Republicans. The McCain campaign is resuming all activities and the Senator will travel to the debate this afternoon. Following the debate, he will return to Washington to ensure that all voices and interests are represented in the final agreement, especially those of taxpayers and homeowners.
meanwhile, as everyone knows the campaign was never suspended and mccain has absolutely nothing to do with the bailout negotiations. and jim lehrer has officially reserved the right to ask whatever he questions he wants tonight. as he said in an email to NYT "stay tuned!".
Anyone ever done this? Thinkin' bout it?
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Is it possible the repugs don't want McCain to win?
they're stonewalling the bailout (which i kinda, sorta agree with). they're badmouthing him in the press (see will, george; brooks, david). and they're not even calling themselves republicans (see rossi, dino). i'm starting to wonder if they'd rather have an "inexperienced" democrat inherit the unbelievable mess they've gotten us into, and then spend the next few years regrouping and blaming the dem-controlled congress and white house for everything.
plus, there's this from andrew sullivan:
plus, there's this from andrew sullivan:
A pretty revealing exchange with Anderson:
"At the end of the day, there's a lot of people thinking about how to rebuild this party," said GOP strategist Ed Rollins on CNN, "and do we want to rebuild it with John McCain, who's always kind of questionable on the basic facts of fiscal control, all the rest of it, immigration. And I think to a certain extent this 110, 115 members of this study group are saying, here's the time to draw the line in the sand."
"That's pretty scary stuff that they're thinking about party right now and not country, is that what you're saying?" responded host Anderson Cooper.
"I think they're, yes, they're thinking about themselves," said Rollins. "I think they don't think that the threat is as great as a lot of other people do."
McCain is now at war with the Democrats, with the press, with Iran, with Russia, and with his own party. Just as he likes it. Even in a crisis like this.
Obama Needs to Lead
i'm on board with this. for one, i am so sick of mccain being the news these days-even if everyone thinks he's nuts, he's still creating daily headlines. obama needs to step up and start acting presidential.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
The latest from the McCain campaign
John McCain's campaign expressed cautious optimism Thursday as congressional Republicans and Democrats agreed in principle on a $700 billion bailout of the financial industry hours before the two presidential candidates were to meet with President Bush on the crisis.
Even so, the action didn't appear to be strong enough to convince McCain to attend Friday's scheduled presidential debate. His campaign has said he wouldn't participate unless there was consensus between Congress and the administration, and a spokesman said the afternoon developments had not changed his plans.
"There's no deal until there's a deal. We're optimistic but we want to get this thing done," McCain spokesman Brian Rogers said.
"we want to get this done"??? really? how insulting to all the staffers and members who've been working on this nonstop since last week. i guarantee mccain and his staff have done nothing except cause them trouble.
If you're easily offended
then do not click here
it's no "i'm f***ng matt damon", but it just might turn that frown upside down.
it's no "i'm f***ng matt damon", but it just might turn that frown upside down.
Seriously?!?!
The San Francisco paper just endorsed McCain. I know that endorsements have little or no impact on elections, but still?!?!? Read some of the comments. People are freaking out.
Nice
Obama Will Make Debate a Townhall if McCain Doesn't Show
but the campaign expects him to show. the bailout is practically approved and McC's mouthpieces were on the morning shows today badmouthing Barack, as usual. So much for the suspended campaign.
Either way, congrats to Obama for, once again, making the right call in a politically touchy environment.
but the campaign expects him to show. the bailout is practically approved and McC's mouthpieces were on the morning shows today badmouthing Barack, as usual. So much for the suspended campaign.
Either way, congrats to Obama for, once again, making the right call in a politically touchy environment.
But, But, He's a Maverick
First of all, I don't consider this post to be a break in my Palin embargo. Really, it concerns McCain's laughable claims to being a reformer and his awkward embrace of the need for more regulatory oversight after 26 years of championing the opposite. In Katie Couric's interview of Palin, she asked for examples in McCain's career, other than recent warnings about Fannie and Freddie, when McCain pushed for greater financial regulation. The eventual answer? "I'll try to find you some and I'll bring 'em to you." Details and video here.
One more thing about the original maverick. Sure, he "suspended" his campaign, but also distributed talking points to his minions on how they should talk about his principled move. But, someone accidentally sent the memo to the Colorado Independent. Oops.
One more thing about the original maverick. Sure, he "suspended" his campaign, but also distributed talking points to his minions on how they should talk about his principled move. But, someone accidentally sent the memo to the Colorado Independent. Oops.
Oh, What will today bring?
the larger timeline:
these two articles are a good snapshot of how the more moderate/right press are talking about this story. seeems fairly balanced and actually somewhat critical of mccain.
USA Today
FOX News
oh, this is rich. apparently palin is suspending her campaign as well. why?!??! she has absolutely nothing to do with the bailout talks. man, they must really want her off the trail and out of the debates. bloggers are speculating that her prep for the debates is a big disaster and that it's better to take the hit from this kind of media stunt than to allow her to be involved in any kind of relatively unscripted venue. absolutely amazing that we're at this point.
And then there's
Letterman
I Love Dave. No, not that Dave.
And, from Bridget's fave, Barney Frank.
Democrats Claim Wall St Bailout Breakthrough
oops, bad timing for McC
Sunday: McCain Endorses Bailout... Tuesday: McCain Says He Hasn't Actually Read Bailout Plan... Wednesday: Obama Leads In Polls, McCain "Suspends" Campaign To Focus Exclusively On Bailout...Then Tapes Interview With Katie Couric... Wednesday Night: Dems Say They've Already Reached Deal On Bailout
these two articles are a good snapshot of how the more moderate/right press are talking about this story. seeems fairly balanced and actually somewhat critical of mccain.
USA Today
FOX News
oh, this is rich. apparently palin is suspending her campaign as well. why?!??! she has absolutely nothing to do with the bailout talks. man, they must really want her off the trail and out of the debates. bloggers are speculating that her prep for the debates is a big disaster and that it's better to take the hit from this kind of media stunt than to allow her to be involved in any kind of relatively unscripted venue. absolutely amazing that we're at this point.
And then there's
Letterman
I Love Dave. No, not that Dave.
And, from Bridget's fave, Barney Frank.
Democrats Claim Wall St Bailout Breakthrough
oops, bad timing for McC
New Polls: It's Safe to Look
Opinion Dynamics for Fox News. 9/22-23. Registered voters. 3% (9/8-9 results)
McCain (R) 39 (45)
Obama (D) 45 (42)
And this poll was conducted before McCain cut and run on the debates.
Update: Let's dig a bit into the internals (PDF).
Independents
McCain (R) 31 (46)
Obama (D) 36 (31)
A 20-point swing?
And speaking of swings, compared to the previous poll after the GOP convention, Sarah Palin's net favorability is down 16 points, McCain's down 11. Obama is +3 (eight points higher than McCain) while Biden is down five.
What else? Asked which candidate they'd be most likely to go hear speak, 42 percent said Obama, 24 percent McCain, 14 percent Palin and 3 percent Biden.
Opinion Research polls for Time magazine and CNN released Wednesday showed:
— Colorado: Obama 51, McCain 45 among registered voters. In late August, McCain had been ahead, 49 to 44. Among likely voters, Obama led in the new poll by 51 to 47.
— Michigan: Obama 51, McCain 44 among registered voters. Among likely voters, Obama leads 51 to 46.
— Pennsylvania: Obama 52, McCain 43 among registered voters. Among likely voters, Obama leads 53 to 44.
In summary, the campaigns agree that since the conventions:
McCain (R) 39 (45)
Obama (D) 45 (42)
And this poll was conducted before McCain cut and run on the debates.
Update: Let's dig a bit into the internals (PDF).
Independents
McCain (R) 31 (46)
Obama (D) 36 (31)
A 20-point swing?
And speaking of swings, compared to the previous poll after the GOP convention, Sarah Palin's net favorability is down 16 points, McCain's down 11. Obama is +3 (eight points higher than McCain) while Biden is down five.
What else? Asked which candidate they'd be most likely to go hear speak, 42 percent said Obama, 24 percent McCain, 14 percent Palin and 3 percent Biden.
Opinion Research polls for Time magazine and CNN released Wednesday showed:
— Colorado: Obama 51, McCain 45 among registered voters. In late August, McCain had been ahead, 49 to 44. Among likely voters, Obama led in the new poll by 51 to 47.
— Michigan: Obama 51, McCain 44 among registered voters. Among likely voters, Obama leads 51 to 46.
— Pennsylvania: Obama 52, McCain 43 among registered voters. Among likely voters, Obama leads 53 to 44.
In summary, the campaigns agree that since the conventions:
Obama has gained in Florida, Virginia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Indiana and New Mexico.
McCain gained in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Alaska and North Dakota.
Both campaigns claim gains in Iowa.
Ohio remains a toss-up —perhaps the decisive prize. Nevada and New Hampshire are too close to call.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
I Knew it!
this was all one big ruse to get the Palin-Biden debate cancelled. the good news is that fox news is leading with obama's quote "i think we can do more than one thing at a time" on their website. i think even the repugs are fed up with defending mccain.
from kos
from kos
According to CNN, McCain's camp is now proposing that the debate be postponed by moving it to into the time and venue of the vice presidential debate, scheduled for Oct. 2nd in St. Louis. The Biden-Palin debate would then be itself rescheduled to happen later on.
So, that'd be delaying two debates, not just one. And what are the odds that the vice presidential debate would manage to somehow never get rescheduled, given the McCain camp's intensive efforts to keep her away from reporters and questioners?
Unbelievable
McCain just said he won't attend the debate if a bailout deal isn't made by Friday. I really hope he doesn't get away with this shit.
oh, and McC cancelled his Letterman appearance tonight and Keith Olbermann is filling in! Apparently Letterman skewers McC accdg to Drudge:
"In the middle of the taping Dave got word that McCain was, in fact just down the street being interviewed by Katie Couric. Dave even cut over to the live video of the interview, and said, "Hey Senator, can I give you a ride home?"
oh, and McC cancelled his Letterman appearance tonight and Keith Olbermann is filling in! Apparently Letterman skewers McC accdg to Drudge:
"In the middle of the taping Dave got word that McCain was, in fact just down the street being interviewed by Katie Couric. Dave even cut over to the live video of the interview, and said, "Hey Senator, can I give you a ride home?"
Earlier in the show, Dave kept saying, "You don't suspend your campaign. This doesn't smell right. This isn't the way a tested hero behaves." And he joked: "I think someone's putting something in his metamucil."
"He can't run the campaign because the economy is cratering? Fine, put in your second string quarterback, Sarah Palin. Where is she?"
"What are you going to do if you're elected and things get tough? Suspend being president? We've got a guy like that now!"
McCain Tried to Steal Barack's Idea (Again)
UPDATED DUE TO BRIDGET'S INPUT:
As I've been reading on the Tubes, this was a brazen attempt on McCain's part to gain political points. Let's take a look at the chronology of today's craziness, as it became public:
2:50 p.m. -- After agreeing behind-the-scenes to make a joint statement with Barack on the crisis, McCain announces to the press he's suspending campaign to focus on the economic crisis and invites Barack to join him. He does not mention the behind-the-scenes deal.
around 3:00 p.m. -- Obama campaign says, "Actually, we called McCain at 8:30 this morning to discuss a joint statement about the economic crisis, which they said they'd mull over."
sometime after 4:00 p.m. -- McCain campaign says, "Well, yeah, Obama's campaign called us this morning, but we never really talked and then at 2:30 we had this great idea to suspend the campaign to focus on the economy. Weird how that's exactly what Obama wanted to talk about this morning."
around 5:00 p.m. -- Barack calls McCain out on his bullshit and makes McCain look like an idiot by saying that he can do his job as a senator while campaigning for president.
No one's really disputing the order of events. McCain chose take Obama's offer to work behind the scenes in a truly bipartisan manner as his own and to run to the press with it. Pitiful.
UPDATE II: Ezra Klein says it better than I did.
As I've been reading on the Tubes, this was a brazen attempt on McCain's part to gain political points. Let's take a look at the chronology of today's craziness, as it became public:
2:50 p.m. -- After agreeing behind-the-scenes to make a joint statement with Barack on the crisis, McCain announces to the press he's suspending campaign to focus on the economic crisis and invites Barack to join him. He does not mention the behind-the-scenes deal.
around 3:00 p.m. -- Obama campaign says, "Actually, we called McCain at 8:30 this morning to discuss a joint statement about the economic crisis, which they said they'd mull over."
sometime after 4:00 p.m. -- McCain campaign says, "Well, yeah, Obama's campaign called us this morning, but we never really talked and then at 2:30 we had this great idea to suspend the campaign to focus on the economy. Weird how that's exactly what Obama wanted to talk about this morning."
around 5:00 p.m. -- Barack calls McCain out on his bullshit and makes McCain look like an idiot by saying that he can do his job as a senator while campaigning for president.
No one's really disputing the order of events. McCain chose take Obama's offer to work behind the scenes in a truly bipartisan manner as his own and to run to the press with it. Pitiful.
UPDATE II: Ezra Klein says it better than I did.
Crazy, or merely insane?
McCain must think the chance to be seen as leading on this is better than the chance of being seen as desperate. Who knows? I doubt Obama takes the bait, but his response will be important.
BREAKING NEWS
McCain says he is suspending campaign, will focus on economy
Republican presidential candidate John McCain announced today he is suspending his campaign to return to Washington and focus on the crisis facing the U.S. economy. He challenged Democratic rival Barack Obama to do the same. McCain also requested that Friday's presidential debate be postponed.
BREAKING NEWS
McCain says he is suspending campaign, will focus on economy
Republican presidential candidate John McCain announced today he is suspending his campaign to return to Washington and focus on the crisis facing the U.S. economy. He challenged Democratic rival Barack Obama to do the same. McCain also requested that Friday's presidential debate be postponed.
In Keeping with The Whole Lies-Based Campaign
This little article blew me away. In it, the writer talks about making up letters to the editor to place in swing states' local papers. The McCain campaign has them written in Virginia, sends them out to the states, finds someone who agrees with the sentiments who will sign them as their own, and submits them en masse. Unreal. Although, it makes me wonder if our boys are doing the same kinds of things.
Morning Roundup
encouraging new poll numbers from wapo/abc--particularly around college-educated white folk and undecideds. here's a quick sum up:
report from the dlc on the undecideds, a little scary. don't read before morning coffee.
www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13790.html
Nate Silver makes the case that the debates might not have much of an impact (a relief after yesterday's NYT article that basically said Obama is an arrogant jerk in debates and McC the winsome jokester )
www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/debates-may-not-be-decisive-after-all.html
oops. McC campaign lied again.
www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/23/freddie-mac-paid-mccain-c_n_128770.html
Finally: Bush is considering a prime-time address tonight to push for his bailout plan. Excellent! Remind the voters who's still in office and why we need to get him and his kind the hell out.
Do More to Bring Change:
Obama 58%
McCain 33%
More Honest and Trustworthy:
Obama: 47%
McCain: 36%
Stronger Leader:
Obama: 47%
McCain: 46%
Understands Economic Problems:
Obama: 57%
McCain: 33%
report from the dlc on the undecideds, a little scary. don't read before morning coffee.
www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13790.html
Nate Silver makes the case that the debates might not have much of an impact (a relief after yesterday's NYT article that basically said Obama is an arrogant jerk in debates and McC the winsome jokester )
www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/debates-may-not-be-decisive-after-all.html
oops. McC campaign lied again.
www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/23/freddie-mac-paid-mccain-c_n_128770.html
Finally: Bush is considering a prime-time address tonight to push for his bailout plan. Excellent! Remind the voters who's still in office and why we need to get him and his kind the hell out.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
I love Chicago
The mayor teed off today on John McCain for including his brother in a negative ad about Barack Obama's Chicago political roots. Daley warned that McCain has his own vulnerabilities, and said, "When you start throwing mud, mud is going to be thrown at you and it's going to be sticky."
http://newsblogs.chicagotribune.com/clout_st/2008/09/mayor-daley-def.html
Wilco's Super Cool GOTV Effort
From Wilco:
Greetings all, Such tumultuous times. And in the spirit of giveaways that seem to be sweeping the nation, we've got something free for you. No it's not a pile of cash (sorry) but rather an audio postcard of sorts from a summer's night in Oregon with our friends the Fleet Foxes & a lovely Bob Dylan tune. All we ask is you go to http://wilcoworld.net/vote/ and click the "I pledge to vote in the 2008 Election" button. If you can spare it, we also encourage you to consider a donation to Feeding America http://www.feedingamerica.org/ . Happy listening (and please feel free to pass this email along to friends, family members, etc.).
The Wilco HQ Distribution Dept.
http://wilcoworld.net/
Greetings all, Such tumultuous times. And in the spirit of giveaways that seem to be sweeping the nation, we've got something free for you. No it's not a pile of cash (sorry) but rather an audio postcard of sorts from a summer's night in Oregon with our friends the Fleet Foxes & a lovely Bob Dylan tune. All we ask is you go to http://wilcoworld.net/vote/ and click the "I pledge to vote in the 2008 Election" button. If you can spare it, we also encourage you to consider a donation to Feeding America http://www.feedingamerica.org/ . Happy listening (and please feel free to pass this email along to friends, family members, etc.).
The Wilco HQ Distribution Dept.
http://wilcoworld.net/
Paging Dr. Wu
George, since you're a business professor, I'm asking you: what the crap's going on with this bailout package? Krugman definitely thinks it needs a major overhaul before going into effect. And, Paulson's definitely being shady. What's your take?
Yep, this sounds about right
vintage rove. too bad it's backfiring.
"Crisis" bill was months in the making
by kos
Fratto insisted that the plan was not slapped together and had been drawn up as a contingency over previous months and weeks by administration officials. He acknowledged lawmakers were getting only days to peruse it, but he said this should be enough.
Marcy:
A) First, as we'll discuss today in the book salon on Woodward's War Within, the Bush Administration refused to admit Iraq was FUBAR even while, for seven months, they were drumming up a new strategy because it was FUBAR. They did so because they didn't want to affect the mid-term elections. So has the Bush Administration been formulating a plan to bail out their buddies, in secret, because they didn't want to let the voters know how badly they had fucked up the American economy before November?
B) And if that is true, how much worse has the economy gotten--and how much more expensive will the bailout be--because the Bushies were trying to hide yet another colossal Republican failure?
C) Or, did they simply not tell us about their fuck-up so they could spring the $700,000,000,000 surprise on us on a Friday and demand results by Monday? The Shock Doctrine at work!
My theory? This isn't a real crisis since, as they themselves have told us, they don't want to limit this giveaway to just failing banks, but to all of Wall Street, even the "very successful banks and investment houses that have done very well".
So since the fate of the free world doesn't really reside on this bill, they can spring it at the most opportune moment. And in this case, it was in a shortened congressional session just days before final adjournment before the elections. They're so used to crying wolf and having Democrats jump at the site of men in military uniforms men in suits carrying briefcases, that they were confident they could roll the Democratic leadership with their Chicken Little act, all the while keeping their own troops in line.
Their decision to sit on this bailout plan until this very political moment appears to bolster my theory.
So far, it looks like their own troops are restless, while the Democratic leadership appears to be pushing conditions that would dissuade non-failing institutions from accepting our money.
Crazy Upside-Down World
I actually agree with George Will, who begins his op-ed today with:
"Under the pressure of the financial crisis, one presidential candidate is behaving like a flustered rookie playing in a league too high. It is not Barack Obama."
And closes with:
"It is arguable that, because of his inexperience, Obama is not ready for the presidency. It is arguable that McCain, because of his boiling moralism and bottomless reservoir of certitudes, is not suited to the presidency. Unreadiness can be corrected, although perhaps at great cost, by experience. Can a dismaying temperament be fixed?"
OUCH. That's gonna leave a mark.
Full op-ed here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/22/AR2008092202583.html
"Under the pressure of the financial crisis, one presidential candidate is behaving like a flustered rookie playing in a league too high. It is not Barack Obama."
And closes with:
"It is arguable that, because of his inexperience, Obama is not ready for the presidency. It is arguable that McCain, because of his boiling moralism and bottomless reservoir of certitudes, is not suited to the presidency. Unreadiness can be corrected, although perhaps at great cost, by experience. Can a dismaying temperament be fixed?"
OUCH. That's gonna leave a mark.
Full op-ed here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/22/AR2008092202583.html
Promising Numbers
Two items of interest from George's favorite site, Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com:
- Nate finds that in polls including cell phones, Obama's percentage jumps 2.8%.
- He also reports on evidence that due to strong voter registration efforts, Washoe County, one of the two counties actually populated in Nevada, might just go blue, which could put the whole state in the Dem column.
On the whole, Nate is currently predicting that Obama will win 312 to 226. Sweet!
Monday, September 22, 2008
I agree with Dave but ...
I can NOT believe this (meaningless but still) poll currently has a higher percentage of voters saying Palin is qualified to run for VP. Please vote and change it.
http://www.pbs.org/cgi-registry/poll/poll.pl
OK, now, I promise to forget about whatshername and focus my energy on Obama/Biden.
http://www.pbs.org/cgi-registry/poll/poll.pl
OK, now, I promise to forget about whatshername and focus my energy on Obama/Biden.
More sass from the family....
Link cousin Joey posted on facebook. The word clouds are especially cool.
"Totally awesome. What the Web was invented for."
http://speechwars.com/index.php
"Totally awesome. What the Web was invented for."
http://speechwars.com/index.php
McCain's Favorability Tanking, Too
While we were all watching Sarah Palin's favorability numbers plunge, we seemed to miss the fact that McCain's have taken
a deeper dive. Like Bridget said, McCain, nobody likes a whiner. Especially one who lies and spends three days flailing around for an answer on the financial crisis that doesn't make everyone cringe. Oh, and who's that climbing in the rankings? That'd be our boy, Barack.
More Hypocrisy OR Let's see how riled up we can get Bridget in one day
McCain's been talking on the trail about how Obama's campaign raked in the bucks from Fannie/Freddie employees. Oh, but wait!
From Daily Kos
From Daily Kos
McCain Campaign Throws Another Tantrum
Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 12:50:25 PM PDT
If there's one thing the McCain campaign hates, it's being called out for their hypocrisy, and predictably, they are throwing a hissy fit over the New York Times' report on McCain's campaign manager Rick Davis having been paid nearly $2 million by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for access to John McCain and his deregulating ways.
During a conference call today with longtime lobbyist Davis and Karl Rove protege Steve Schmidt:
...Davis said only that he was involved in an effort to promote the cause of home-ownership -- but that he wasn't actually a lobbyist. "I never lobbied a single day," Davis said --
Nice deflection, Rick. The New York Times story didn't accuse Davis of lobbying for this firm. It pointed out that Davis was paid $30,000 a month for five years to do nothing except provide access to John McCain in the event he became president. Let's call that pre-emptive lobbying.
And what did Karl Rove-lite have to say during the call?
"Whatever the New York Times once was, it is not today by any standard a journalistic organization," Schmidt said. "It is a pro-Obama organization that every day attacks Senator McCain, attacks Governor Palin, and excuses Senator Obama."
Another nice dodge. Schmidt can't deny the story itself, so he opts for the old "attack the messenger." A classic Karl Rove move.
And the Obama campaign responds:
Number of probing stories the NY Times has written over the course of the campaign about Barack Obama, his life, his religion, his childhood, his politics, his time in the state senate, his time in the U.S. Senate, his family, his religion, his friends, his fundraising and all other manner of associations: more than 40
Number of stories the NY Times has written over the course of the campaign about the last major financial regulatory crisis, resulting in a huge bailout, and which John McCain was centrally involved in with his political godfather Charles Keating: 0
Say Wha?!
I cannot begin to understand how McCain can continue to insist that deregulation was a good thing.
From ThinkProgress:
In the wake of last week’s financial meltdown, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) has been calling for more regulation and criticizing lax oversight of Wall Street, despite the fact that he and former senator Phil Gramm passed much of the deregulatory reforms that led to the current crisis. Interviewed on CBS today, however, McCain said he does not “regret” championing the deregulation of Wall Street:
Q: In 1999, you were one of the senators who helped pass deregulation of Wall Street. Do you regret that now?
McCAIN: No. I think the deregulation was probably helpful to the growth of our economy.
From ThinkProgress:
In the wake of last week’s financial meltdown, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) has been calling for more regulation and criticizing lax oversight of Wall Street, despite the fact that he and former senator Phil Gramm passed much of the deregulatory reforms that led to the current crisis. Interviewed on CBS today, however, McCain said he does not “regret” championing the deregulation of Wall Street:
Q: In 1999, you were one of the senators who helped pass deregulation of Wall Street. Do you regret that now?
McCAIN: No. I think the deregulation was probably helpful to the growth of our economy.
Okay, Just One More
this is (yet another) insult to smart, successful women everywhere (and especially olympia snowe).
from andrew sullivan:
from andrew sullivan:
Deference Watch
22 Sep 2008 11:53 am
From the NYT:
At the insistence of the McCain campaign, the Oct. 2 debate between the Republican nominee for vice president, Gov. Sarah Palin, and her Democratic rival, Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr., will have shorter question-and-answer segments than those for the presidential nominees, the advisers said. There will also be much less opportunity for free-wheeling, direct exchanges between the running mates.
McCain advisers said they had been concerned that a loose format could leave Ms. Palin, a relatively inexperienced debater, at a disadvantage and largely on the defensive.
Are you fucking kidding me? We are now rigging the debate formats to compensate for a know-nothing, mendacious Manchurian candidate drilled in meaningless talking points? And the Obama team agreed to this? And so did the press?
No More Attention for Palin
Seriously, she's not worth the time and energy. Check out this clumsy response to a question about how to keep domestically produced coal and oil in the U.S (via ABC News Political Radar blog).
"Oil and coal? Of course, it's a fungible commodity and they don't flag, you know, the molecules, where it's going and where it's not. But in the sense of the Congress today, they know that there are very, very hungry domestic markets that need that oil first," Palin said. "So, I believe that what Congress is going to do, also, is not to allow the export bans to such a degree that it's Americans that get stuck to holding the bag without the energy source that is produced here, pumped here. It's got to flow into our domestic markets first."
That gives me flashbacks to my teaching days. She sounds just like a high school student trying to talk their way around the fact that they don't know the answer to a homework question. She's a distraction. I'm going back to focusing on Barack and McCain, with occasional side notes when Biden gets fired up.
"Oil and coal? Of course, it's a fungible commodity and they don't flag, you know, the molecules, where it's going and where it's not. But in the sense of the Congress today, they know that there are very, very hungry domestic markets that need that oil first," Palin said. "So, I believe that what Congress is going to do, also, is not to allow the export bans to such a degree that it's Americans that get stuck to holding the bag without the energy source that is produced here, pumped here. It's got to flow into our domestic markets first."
That gives me flashbacks to my teaching days. She sounds just like a high school student trying to talk their way around the fact that they don't know the answer to a homework question. She's a distraction. I'm going back to focusing on Barack and McCain, with occasional side notes when Biden gets fired up.
Sunday, September 21, 2008
25,000 show up in charlotte for obama
Mr. Coolincluding my cousin, erin, and my mom--both previous hill-raisers. the latter texted me, and i quote, "so excitin'! lines blocks long!! nc goin democratic (after) 30 years!! obamas adorable." (notice how she's stopped using the letter "g" after 4 years in the south).
according to the charlotte observer: "The crowd got so large, they lifted the barriers to areas that had previously been cordoned off to try and accomodate the overflow. Some people even started breaking through hedges and climbing low walls just to be able to hear him."
erin promised to send me a pic, will post when i get it.
also, according to daily kos daily poll: obama 49, mccain 42. and that, my friends, is damn good news. if the economy needs to tank for people to realize that republicans=bad, bring. it. on.
oh, and on 60 minutes just now i'm pretty sure that mccain, when asked if we were in a recession said: "technically, i don't know". and that pretty much sums it up.
Latest Forecasts
The latest numbers on fivethirtyeight.com continue to improve for the good guys: Obama averages 311.5 electoral votes to 226.5 for our Naval veteran, and the simulations give Barack a 74.5% chance at winning. And Al Franken has a 42% shot at upending Norm Coleman in the Minnesota Senatorial race. How about that for bringing the last two entries together?
Saturday, September 20, 2008
George, you'll have to post on polls
With Ilsa and Dave both at weddings, John waylaid by Cubs fever, and me, as is my wont, focusing on the lighter side ... George, you're in charge of the numbers. Make'em good. (And give baby a ride in the stroller please.)
Meanwhile, check the latest from JibJab out if you haven't already seen, good for a chuckle:
http://www.peteyandpetunia.com/VoteHere/VoteHere.htm
Safe travels to all.
-seana
Meanwhile, check the latest from JibJab out if you haven't already seen, good for a chuckle:
http://www.peteyandpetunia.com/VoteHere/VoteHere.htm
Safe travels to all.
-seana
Friday, September 19, 2008
Palin's favorability
Sarah Palin's popularity free fall is pretty stunning. Extrapolating this can't be good for McCain-Palin. From Daily Kos' tracking poll.
The tide is changing
Nate Silver and fivethirtyeight.com has Obama up in predicted electoral votes for the first time in some time: 284.8 to 253.2 (with a 61.2% chance of winning the election, up from something like 41% earlier in the week).
Thursday, September 18, 2008
More Good News, if you can stand it
The Latino vote swings hard for Obama
by kos
Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 10:44:44 AM PDT
SUSA's latest has Obama up 52-44 in New Mexico, which is great in and of itself. But I was struck even more by this line:
Hispanics
McCain 28
Obama 69
That is close to the numbers in yesterday's R2K/dKos daily tracking poll:
Hispanics
McCain 29
Obama 67
Scroll back to previous editions, and the numbers are remarkably stable. It is precisely this dramatic support among the Latino community that will deliver New Mexico and Colorado to Obama, while keeping Florida competitive when it should, by other measures, be trending away. In fact Florida, which delivered its Latino vote to Bush 56-44 in 2004, now favors Obama among Latinos 59-38 according to the internals of Rasmussen's latest.
No one talks about Latinos liking McCain anymore, or about Latinos not voting for the black candidates, and it's a good thing. Those are at least two zombie lies that have finally been put to bed.
Palin Gaffe Count: 10
Today, Palin proposed a program for government transparency that already exists. Oh, who lead this effort with Sen. Coburn to get it passed? Barack. Who co-sponsored the original bill? Her running mate, McCain.
Next up, she will reform the legislative process to require that the president signs off on all laws.
UPDATE: Another gaffe might have been marrying Todd. TPM put together a delightfully awkward collection of clips from Greta Van Susteren interviewing Todd. It's like watching a nine-year old on a talk show.
Next up, she will reform the legislative process to require that the president signs off on all laws.
UPDATE: Another gaffe might have been marrying Todd. TPM put together a delightfully awkward collection of clips from Greta Van Susteren interviewing Todd. It's like watching a nine-year old on a talk show.
Surprise Headliner at VA GOP Diversity Rally
TPM reports that in an effort to win over minority voters in Virginia, the GOP is holding a rally featuring former senator, George "Macaca" Allen. Brilliant!
I'm also pretty amped about the polls today. And, if you haven't seen the NY Times tracking poll internals, I recommend checking them out. In a nutshell, Barack's leading and most of the respondents side with him on the issue questions.
In other cool news, Charles Gibson has become my favorite anchor.
Finally, I have a legal question for Ilsa. If I'm ever investigated for breaking the law, can I just "decline to participate"?
I'm also pretty amped about the polls today. And, if you haven't seen the NY Times tracking poll internals, I recommend checking them out. In a nutshell, Barack's leading and most of the respondents side with him on the issue questions.
In other cool news, Charles Gibson has become my favorite anchor.
Finally, I have a legal question for Ilsa. If I'm ever investigated for breaking the law, can I just "decline to participate"?
Salon Hipnotic
that reminds me. the next salon date is october 25! this will be the club version of salon sassy, so all acts should be re-mixed, re-mastered, digitized and include back-up vocals from 50 cent.
Or, we could just plan on celebrating weddings and birthdays, and eating enough food to fill us up for the winter hibernation.
looking forward to seeing everyone then.
xox
ilsa
Or, we could just plan on celebrating weddings and birthdays, and eating enough food to fill us up for the winter hibernation.
looking forward to seeing everyone then.
xox
ilsa
Palin Gaffe Count: 4? 8? 9?
Okay, here's where I think we are:
- Fannie and Freddie
- Bush Doctrine (although, in reading summaries, I see that she really made about 5 gaffes in the whole foreign policy discussion)
- Entitlements--In the Gibson interview, she talked about trying to find "efficiencies in the agencies" of entitlement programs. Such as, cheaper postage for Welfare checks?
- AIG--She talked about the "construction bonds" AIG holds. No one seems to no what the heck that means.
So, I think we're at 4, but if we itemize the whole foreign policy debacle, we could be up to 8 or 9. At least the hard-hitting Hannity interview was smooth sailing.
Pardon the Interruption - Hey Dave and Bridget
I can no longer listen to my Ipod without thinking about which songs I want you guys to learn for the next singalong. So I respectfully submit two requests, both Bright Eyes:
1. Bowl of Oranges
2. Spring Cleaning
Both are on chordie, I checked. :) And everyone can familiarize themselves with the lyrics here:
http://www.metrolyrics.com/bright-eyes-lyrics.html
Now mind you, I have no concept of how long it takes to learn a song on guitar - Spring Cleaning to me *sounds* like it would be easy, and my brother can play Bowl of Oranges, that is my criteria for hoping I am not asking for something huge. Nor do I know how to tell if Bridget can sing like Bright Eyes, but the first three letters of their names are the same, that must count for something.
So, if this is an outlandish request, please gently ignore me. And let's start figuring out where and when we're going door to door for Obama.
[Imagining doors opening to Dave and his guitar singing a pro-Obama song ... John could write the lyrics ...]
1. Bowl of Oranges
2. Spring Cleaning
Both are on chordie, I checked. :) And everyone can familiarize themselves with the lyrics here:
http://www.metrolyrics.com/bright-eyes-lyrics.html
Now mind you, I have no concept of how long it takes to learn a song on guitar - Spring Cleaning to me *sounds* like it would be easy, and my brother can play Bowl of Oranges, that is my criteria for hoping I am not asking for something huge. Nor do I know how to tell if Bridget can sing like Bright Eyes, but the first three letters of their names are the same, that must count for something.
So, if this is an outlandish request, please gently ignore me. And let's start figuring out where and when we're going door to door for Obama.
[Imagining doors opening to Dave and his guitar singing a pro-Obama song ... John could write the lyrics ...]
Good Morning Kids!
here's my morning round-up from kos and huffington. checked out wapo, but just found an annoying column by george will. though there's a wonderfully bitchy column by gail collins in nyt.
Now I get it
Why are the polls so close? Not only do around 25 percent of Americans watch FOX News Channel on a regular basis, but, from coast to coast, there are more than a thousand far-right talk radio stations occupied by shows that make Morning Joe sound like an Olbermann Special Comment. And 17 percent of Americans are glued to it at work and in their cars.
I don't know if you've dared to listen to far-right talk radio lately, but I can assure you that they're not ignoring Senator Obama -- or his family. Put it this way: if you only got your news and opinions from talk radio, you'd probably believe that Senator Obama is some kind of foreign-born baby-killing Manchurian Candidate terrorist -- if not a sexist uppity black man who, if he loses in November, will incite race riots in every city.
www.huffingtonpost.com/bob-cesca/enough-heres-why-the-poll_b_127167.html
McCain rejects Spain as Ally, for reals
www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/18/bizarre-mccain-remarks-ap_n_127346.html
Poll Check
9/18 Daily Kos R2K Tracking Poll: Obama 49, McCain 43
Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 05:10:23 AM PDT
Today's Daily Kos Research 2000 tracking poll has Obama up by 6, 49-43 over McCain (MoE +/- 3). The trend matches yesterday's Gallup, with moved in Obama's favor yesterday (Obama 47-45 McCain) for the first time since the failed GOP convention. Yesterday's Diageo/Hotline is stable (Obama 45-42) as is yesterday's Rasmussen with McCain 48-47, the outlier of the trackers. look for that to change today, as there's nothing going McCain's way. Our (Moe +/- 5.1) single day sample from yesterday has Obama up by 8.
Our tracker shows the following:
Favorable/Unfavorable
CANDIDATE FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
MCCAIN 46 46 8
OBAMA 56 35 9
BIDEN 50 32 18
PALIN 42 46 12
Palin's -4 and McCain's neutral does not match up with Obama's +21 and Biden's +19. In our tracker, Obama's gone from +9 to +15 with women, from 9/11 to 9/18. Neither Wall Street nor Walmart is saying "Get Palin on the phone."
That means that you can like Palin and not want her anywhere near the WH, especially as McCain looks old and tired and on the wrong side of the regulation argument. In addition, Republican George Bush's lack of leadershipis reflecting on Republican John McCain and Republican Sarah Palin.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
McCain Foreign Affairs Gaffe
Okay, so I know I've dropped the ball with the promised Sarah Palin Gaffe count, but after the Charles Gibson interview, I've lost track. Anyhow, this is a good one. In an interview with a Florida-based affiliate of a Spanish radio station, McCain clearly confused Spain's Prime Minister Zapatero with the Mexican Zapatista separatists. Talking Points Memo has the details.
Financial Crisis Primer
Like John McCain, I don't have a great knowledge of the ins and outs of the national economy. Thus, I have a pretty rudimentary understanding of why big financial institutions keep going belly up (although I do understand what the world could look like if the crisis continues). So, I was happy to find this little primer on some of the root causes of the problems and some suggestions on how to right the ship.
While it isn't overtly stated in the article, he does hint that he thinks Obama's much more likely to fix things than McCain. But, we knew that.
While it isn't overtly stated in the article, he does hint that he thinks Obama's much more likely to fix things than McCain. But, we knew that.
The Polls we like are the polls we post
CNN/Time have new polls today which are more favorable than Rasmussen polls from yesterday (though I've read enough on Nate Silver's site to believe that Rasmussen is a republican tool to a certain degree and should be taken with huge grains of salt). So, I'm posting these while ignoring those.
Florida? Really? North Carolina, really really? Wisconsin needs to be shored up, but if the rest are even slightly realistic, that's a big hells ya. Gallup daily poll has Obama +2 nationwide.
So, it seems like the Palin bounce is dead. Long live the Palin bounce.
CNN/Time:
Florida: Obama 48, McCain 48
Indiana: McCain 51, Obama 45
North Carolina: McCain 48, Obama 47
Ohio: Obama 49, McCain 47
Wisconsin: Obama 50, McCain 47
Dates conducted: Sept. 14-16. Error margin: Ranges from 3-3.5 points
http://thepage.time.com/2008/09/17/latest-timecnn-battleground-polls/
Florida? Really? North Carolina, really really? Wisconsin needs to be shored up, but if the rest are even slightly realistic, that's a big hells ya. Gallup daily poll has Obama +2 nationwide.
So, it seems like the Palin bounce is dead. Long live the Palin bounce.
CNN/Time:
Florida: Obama 48, McCain 48
Indiana: McCain 51, Obama 45
North Carolina: McCain 48, Obama 47
Ohio: Obama 49, McCain 47
Wisconsin: Obama 50, McCain 47
Dates conducted: Sept. 14-16. Error margin: Ranges from 3-3.5 points
http://thepage.time.com/2008/09/17/latest-timecnn-battleground-polls/
We can all visit Ilsa in Nebraska
You know, once she becomes Missus Senator Scott Kleeb:
http://www.actblue.com/page/chicagoansforkleeb
http://www.actblue.com/page/chicagoansforkleeb
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Sarah Palin Baby Name Generator!
Penny and George, just what you've been waiting for (and maybe Dave and Bridgit hint hint wink wink nudge nudge):
http://politsk.blogspot.com/2008/09/sarah_13.html
http://politsk.blogspot.com/2008/09/sarah_13.html
File Under: Schadenfreude
From wonkette is the story of a complete piece of yuck young republican delegate who found out that karma always wins.
He gave this smug/insane interview which he summed up why he likes being a Republican:
"less taxes. more war" (and, yes, Seana and Dave, "fewer" taxes is the word he was looking for).
http://www.linktv.org/video/2931
However, later he took a woman back to his hotel room, she slipped him a mickie, and robbed him of $120,000:
http://www.twincities.com/ci_10472581?source=most_emailed
Weeeee!!!!
He gave this smug/insane interview which he summed up why he likes being a Republican:
"less taxes. more war" (and, yes, Seana and Dave, "fewer" taxes is the word he was looking for).
http://www.linktv.org/video/2931
However, later he took a woman back to his hotel room, she slipped him a mickie, and robbed him of $120,000:
http://www.twincities.com/ci_10472581?source=most_emailed
Weeeee!!!!
Sassy from Charlotte
Courtesy of Suzy's sister, Amy.
By John Cusack. he uses the word sass! plus he says really cool things like "Palin is a gateway drug to a back-alley brawl Obama can't win."
www.huffingtonpost.com/john-cusack/the-final-distraction-mcc_b_126672.html
By John Cusack. he uses the word sass! plus he says really cool things like "Palin is a gateway drug to a back-alley brawl Obama can't win."
www.huffingtonpost.com/john-cusack/the-final-distraction-mcc_b_126672.html
Morning Coffee
From one of my favorite columnists, E.J. Dionne. The campaign should take a major turn this week (Chuck Todd said the same thing last night).
www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/15/AR2008091502472.html?hpid=opinionsbox1
New poll numbers from Kos:
www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/15/AR2008091502472.html?hpid=opinionsbox1
New poll numbers from Kos:
Today's results, coming on the heels of yesterday's Wall Street meltdown, show Obama at 48 and McCain at 44. Sarah Palin's fav/unfav continue slide (45/44 today, 52/35 on 9/11), and (I suspect) the economics issue pushes the culture war to the back burner.
Speaking of economics, keep an eye in the coming days on the 30-44 year olds. This cohort has been trending McCain, but jobs and the economy are going to get their attention. And, watch also the women demo, currently +12 for Obama. Watch them all, as trends tend to filter down everywhere.
It will take a bit of time to filter this week's events down to state level (where it counts), but the regional breakdowns continue to suggest McCain runs better in the South than elsewhere. Obama is currently +9 in the midwest.
love this comment on kos: I didnt have to spend a lot of time rationlizing that the polls must be wrong this morning.
Monday, September 15, 2008
I have a crush on Paul Krugman
he's so cute and brainy and nerdy. plus he said that if anyone can ensure a second great depression it's phil gramm--mccain's likely treasury secretary.
so, today we learned:
that mccain believes the fundamentals of the economy are strong, the same day lehman declared bankruptcy and the dow dropped 500 points. after he was called out on it, he tried to say he meant that american workers are strong and tried to paint obama as anti-worker!! people are just not that stupid.
that palin installed a tanning bed in the governor's mansion. nuff said. oh, wait, there's more. as i'm writing this the mccain campaign just announced that palin won't be cooperating with the investigator of the troopergate campaign. hello dick cheney.
that biden is still the scrappiest, rebel-rousing, tough guy with a twinkle in his eye, politician i've ever had the pleasure of watching from the comfort of my living room. can we please hit the road to see this guy give a speech?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ImuE0IVamk
check out minute 17-19.
so, today we learned:
that mccain believes the fundamentals of the economy are strong, the same day lehman declared bankruptcy and the dow dropped 500 points. after he was called out on it, he tried to say he meant that american workers are strong and tried to paint obama as anti-worker!! people are just not that stupid.
that palin installed a tanning bed in the governor's mansion. nuff said. oh, wait, there's more. as i'm writing this the mccain campaign just announced that palin won't be cooperating with the investigator of the troopergate campaign. hello dick cheney.
that biden is still the scrappiest, rebel-rousing, tough guy with a twinkle in his eye, politician i've ever had the pleasure of watching from the comfort of my living room. can we please hit the road to see this guy give a speech?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ImuE0IVamk
check out minute 17-19.
Even Fox calls them on their lies
I never thought I would see this, but maybe this is a turning point. Tucker Bounds (famed for being pilloried by CNN's Campbell Brown) was on Fox today and Megyn Kelly actually held him accountable for the McCain campaign claims. What a world it is when even Fox won't let them get away with their lies.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/15/foxs-megyn-kelly-works-ov_n_126473.html
KELLY: I want to hold you accountable for what McCain is doing, and get you to weigh in on this. Has your candidate gone too far, has he stretched the truth with the voters?
BOUNDS: Well, Megyn, what we have done is gone to great lengths to discuss Barack Obama's record. And I think what you're seeing in this ad today is that he would rather hurl insults than examine his record. I mean, it is true that during a struggling economy, he proposes raising taxes.
KELLY: Not on the middle class.
BOUNDS: Well...ulp...on job growth and small businesses that drive the job growth of this country.
...
KELLY: No, no! Let's stay on point, I'm not giving him any credit. I'm saying what the independent analysts say. They say that claim is false. And if that's false, why would John McCain do that, Tucker? Why wouldn't he just level with the voters and say, look, he's going to raise taxes on the wealthy or whatever you consider somebody to be making over $250,000, it's going to have a trickle down effect. That may not be good for the middle class. But why say he's going to raise taxes on the middle class when he's not?
...
KELLY: Why did John McCain suggests in an ad that Barack Obama supported, comprehensive sex-ed for kindergartners? ... I looked at the language in the bill ... The language in the bill talks about age appropriate sex ed, including education about child predators and inappropriate touching. What is wrong with that?
BOUNDS: And sexually transmitted diseases.
KELLY: Right. Why wouldn't you want a kindergartner to be educated somewhat about inappropriate touching from adults?
BOUNDS: About sexually transmitted diseases?
KELLY: No! No! [crosstalk] His campaign says that's not fair, what he was backing was trying to educate little kindergartners on how to avoid sexual predators' and that you are distorting the language of the bill. Your response.
...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/15/foxs-megyn-kelly-works-ov_n_126473.html
KELLY: I want to hold you accountable for what McCain is doing, and get you to weigh in on this. Has your candidate gone too far, has he stretched the truth with the voters?
BOUNDS: Well, Megyn, what we have done is gone to great lengths to discuss Barack Obama's record. And I think what you're seeing in this ad today is that he would rather hurl insults than examine his record. I mean, it is true that during a struggling economy, he proposes raising taxes.
KELLY: Not on the middle class.
BOUNDS: Well...ulp...on job growth and small businesses that drive the job growth of this country.
...
KELLY: No, no! Let's stay on point, I'm not giving him any credit. I'm saying what the independent analysts say. They say that claim is false. And if that's false, why would John McCain do that, Tucker? Why wouldn't he just level with the voters and say, look, he's going to raise taxes on the wealthy or whatever you consider somebody to be making over $250,000, it's going to have a trickle down effect. That may not be good for the middle class. But why say he's going to raise taxes on the middle class when he's not?
...
KELLY: Why did John McCain suggests in an ad that Barack Obama supported, comprehensive sex-ed for kindergartners? ... I looked at the language in the bill ... The language in the bill talks about age appropriate sex ed, including education about child predators and inappropriate touching. What is wrong with that?
BOUNDS: And sexually transmitted diseases.
KELLY: Right. Why wouldn't you want a kindergartner to be educated somewhat about inappropriate touching from adults?
BOUNDS: About sexually transmitted diseases?
KELLY: No! No! [crosstalk] His campaign says that's not fair, what he was backing was trying to educate little kindergartners on how to avoid sexual predators' and that you are distorting the language of the bill. Your response.
...
Like I was Sayin'...
Virginia is definitely in play.
In what looks to be a shakeup of the Virginia electorate, the recent
Survey USA poll is all Obama.
In an election for President of the United States in Virginia today, 09/15/08, 7 weeks till votes are counted, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 50% to 46%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond, and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one week ago, immediately following the Republican National Convention, Obama is up 3 points; McCain is down 3. The movement solidifies Virginia place as America's 2008 battleground.
Palin's Rapid Fade
daily kos
Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 11:16:23 AM PDT
Here are Sarah Palin's daily approval numbers from the Daily Kos/Research 2000 tracking poll:
Approve Disapprove No Opinion
9/11: 52 35 13 +17
9/12: 51 37 12 +14
9/13: 49 40 11 +9
9/14: 47 42 11 +5
9/15: 47 43 10 +4
In the span of five days, Palin has gone from +17 to +4 -- a statistically significant shift. This includes the Gibson interview as well as the media's sudden focus late last week on the Palin/McCain lies. In comparison, Biden is at 48/32/20, Obama is at 54/38/8, and McCain is at 51/45/4.
So Palin may not be the least popular of the four -- McCain is, but she is certainly the least liked of the four candidates, and given that both Obama and Biden are at +16 favorability, McCain's +6 and and Palin's +4 point to a fundamental weakness that will likely play a role moving forward.
How about McCain in that time period?
Approve Disapprove No Opinion
9/11: 55 44 1 +11
9/12: 56 43 1 +13
9/13: 55 43 2 +12
9/14: 53 44 3 +9
9/15: 51 45 4 +6
Not as dramatic a collapse as Palin, but still bleeding some popularity from the media's sudden focus on the dishonorable campaign McCain has run. (So dishonorable, remember, that even Karl Rove thinks the McCain/Palin campaign has gone too far. And Fox News too.)
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